Big draw donk bet on the flop

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
How certain are you that Villain has a Q here? It would be tough for me not to raise here, tying villains to a potentially big pot with a big draw is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was about 90% sure because I had played with him for a long time and he was straight forward. I was iso raising him at least once an orbit. I did end up raising here, both blinds folded and I called down unimproved. He had something like Q3.

[Lucky_River]

I call this trying to get overcallers if you get 1 you are fine if both call it's better, the worst you can have here is SB and BB fold and Co 3-bet.

[ajm36]

raises because your hand is so freakin' AWESOME!!!

[ackid]

one word.

"RAISE THAT SH%T!!!"

[Deviance]

The pot is large, but raising won't likely buy you additional outs or increase your winning chances beyond a factor of 10 percent (i.e. you may go from 47% to 52% equity). Raising may buy you a free card, however.

Calling, in my view, is slightly better. If the blinds overcall equity edge is large: you are contributing 25% of the pot but you will win it likely over 40% of the time. By raising and getting the blinds to fold, you will probably still have an equity edge, but it will be much smaller (contribute 50% of the pot, but will win it about 52% of the time).

On balance, I believe the extra bets that go in due to calling the flop slightly outweigh the advantages of getting a free card and raising your winning chances marginally.

However, if the blinds do not overcall or would have cold called had you raised, then calling this flop is no longer as appealing.

[Watkins]

Ok, I've tried to do an EV calculation here, not sure if this is correct or not but by my calculations if you are sure you'll only have 1 caller (to the river) you get more money in by raising the flop (even if Villain donks a safe turn).
However, if you are sure your call will encourage an additional caller (even if this caller folds UI on the turn) you are better off calling.

My workings aren't really that clear because I don't know how to add a table using UBB.Code.

EV = (% turn x bets won + % river x bets won + % miss x bets lost)
EV of Raising = (27.45% x 3 + 26.92% x 2 + 45.63% x -1) = 0.9
EV vs. turn donk = (27.45% x 3 + 26.92% x 3 + 45.63% x -2) = 0.71
EV of calling (1 villain) = (27.45% x 2.5 + 26.92% x 2.5 + 45.63% x -1.5) = 0.67
EV of calling (2 villains) = (27.45% x 3 + 26.92% x 3 + 45.63% x -1.5) = 0.95

[Befolder]

Grunch

I'm only calling this because I want the other two to come along. I don't want to shut out their bad money. I'm hoping there is a c/r in there so I can put in three on this great flop. You're winning this hand many times and I think we get more money in the pot by calling the flop and seeing what happens behind.