Big draw donk bet on the flop

[Absolution]

This one is from memory from last night:

0.5/1 Stars 6-max:

Dealt to Hero on button: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Loose passive player limps in the CO (this guy limps just about every pot and is straight forward.)

Hero raises.

SB and BB call like they usually do. These guys seem passive as well, but not as loose as the CO.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, BB checks, CO bets, Hero...

CO almost always has the Q here.

[Marquis]

Are you thinking about raising for a free card? I'd just call this one. Maybe you'll get lucky and one of the blinds will checkraise.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you thinking about raising for a free card? I'd just call this one. Maybe you'll get lucky and one of the blinds will checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking about it. Even if he's got Qx, I'm still ahead as far as equity goes so I could raise with that small equity and get it heads up or just call and hope the others come along to pad. Actually, as I write this it's a pretty clear call.

[Buzz-cp]

I think raise & call are about equal. You are probably behind, but you have gobs of outs. Villain will check to you on the turn if you raise the flop.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
I think raise & call are about equal. You are probably behind, but you have gobs of outs. Villain will check to you on the turn if you raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that a better argument for calling. I have to improve to win this hand because he's not going to fold. I want to encourage the others to come along for the flop at least and then hopefully get a raise in on the turn or river when I hit. Of course, there is a good chance he'll just call and donk bet the turn again.

[Shillx]

I'd still raise

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd still raise

[/ QUOTE ]

That's funny, because I did. Okay, maybe it's just close. I keep going back and forth. I don't need to raise here for any protection, and my equity is thin if it gets heads up. However, the SB and BB might call if I did anyway since they already did preflop and that would be good. There is probably a significant chance they would. I would guess there is a 50% this guy donks again on the turn (common move among loose passives with top pair no kicker at 0.5/1) so I will get a free card a good amount as well.

So, raise and hope one of the blinds calls or just call to encourage both of them to call and then get an extra BB on the turn when he bets into me.

[Fadook]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think raise & call are about equal. You are probably behind, but you have gobs of outs. Villain will check to you on the turn if you raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that a better argument for calling. I have to improve to win this hand because he's not going to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems like all the more reason to raise. Obviously you'll get paid off more if you call the call the flop and hit your flush on the turn, but if you don't and Villian bets the turn again, you've just spent more money getting to the river. King Yao did a bunch of calculations in his book that show that assuming your opponent will bet the turn if you call the flop and check the turn if you raise the flop, going for a free card raise is always the higher expectation play.

Edit: Woops, I'm an idiot, just remembered to consider that we might pick up bets from the other guys if we keep them in on the flop which changes the EV calc. Guess that makes it close, I still raise in the hopes that one of the blinds calls and because I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] free cards.

[davelin]

How certain are you that Villain has a Q here? It would be tough for me not to raise here, tying villains to a potentially big pot with a big draw is good.

[sharpie]

Value raise. You're a favorite against a queen.