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#11
11-01-2006, 04:08 PM
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Re: 11/4 movie lines
[ QUOTE ]
i'm on tilt the other way. i don't believe that borat can do so poorly. critics love it, people are excited about it. i've heard people talking about the movie for months now, nonstop. 1500 per theater is rough, but doable for a movie as exciting as this one. also, theaters may get added later in the week. i'm buying a few overs here. i'm willing to mash it up on this movie, and won't feel so dumb if it's all jackassed away. [/ QUOTE ] You left out a zero. 
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#12
11-01-2006, 04:50 PM
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Re: 11/4 movie lines
Black Aces, I think that is a bad decision. There is a decent chance that it will make between 11 and 12. You will probably win the under this time, but its definitely a bad play. Santa Clause 3 is where it's at! Kids wanting to see R rated Borat will buy tickets for Santa Clause 3, it going to over 24mill. Flushed out is going over 20 mill.
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#13
11-01-2006, 05:46 PM
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Re: 11/4 movie lines
[ QUOTE ]
Black Aces, I think that is a bad decision. There is a decent chance that it will make between 11 and 12. You will probably win the under this time, but its definitely a bad play. Santa Clause 3 is where it's at! Kids wanting to see R rated Borat will buy tickets for Santa Clause 3, it going to over 24mill. Flushed out is going over 20 mill. [/ QUOTE ] I know. I bet way too much on the over, then completely panicked, and bet enough on the under to cancel. I have had a good season so far and will completely destroy it if Borat comes between 11 and 12. I can't believe I've gotten into this situation.
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#14
11-01-2006, 05:54 PM
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Re: 11/4 movie lines
Aces, hopefully this helps...
http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/a...rat_redux.html For openings under 1250 screens in November, only five have ever cracked $10 million on opening weekend in box office history. NONE IN THE LAST 14 YEARS. Misery on 1244 did $10.1m Cape Fear on 924 did $10.3m Three Men & A Baby on 1004 did $10.4m Home Alone on 1202 did $17.1m Aladdin on 1131 did $19.3m There have been seven R rated films that have done more than $10,000 per screen on opening weekend in the month of November. 8 Mile - $20,745 on 2470 Interview With The Vampire - $13,975 on 2604 The Matrix Revolutions - $13,842 on 3502 Ransom - $12,786 on 2676 Bram Stoker’s Dracula - $12,252 on 2491 Jarhead - $11,499 on 2411 Cape Fear - $11,105 on 924 You will notice that there a lot of big stars involved, except for Jarhead, which interestingly was the only one release on the first weekend of the month. And that is really the answer here.
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#15
11-01-2006, 05:59 PM
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Re: 11/4 movie lines
Thanks, I appreciate the stats, but I will be in a blind panic until Monday.
Tempted to finalize the bridgejump, the under 11M is +106 right now on Pinny (adding to my fear, heh). Thought I had learned my lesson on making giant bets impulsively a long time ago, but obv not. Hopefully the lesson isn't as financially painful this time. GO U11 or O12!
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#16
11-01-2006, 07:30 PM
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Re: 11/4 movie lines
people are acting like U11 is a lot different than U12. normally this is very true. in this instance, the difference is slight. U11 is bettable up to -200 imo. actually its bettable beyond that but i personally wouldn't risk much money at that point.
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