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#11
11-01-2006, 02:44 PM
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Re: 27: JJ bubble call with shortie
he said M not BB. Thing is gallo M isnt really a factor in SNG's ... everyone does there calculations on BB's not M.
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#12
11-01-2006, 02:46 PM
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Re: 27: JJ bubble call with shortie
[ QUOTE ]
he said M not BB. Thing is gallo M isnt really a factor in SNG's ... everyone does there calculations on BB's not M. [/ QUOTE ] That's basically what I was trying to illustrate. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#13
11-01-2006, 07:05 PM
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Re: 27: JJ bubble call with shortie
ok, thanks for your responses, everyone. no doubt calling is massively +ev in terms of ICM, I was just wondering if you thought shortie was short enough to knock off 1-2% equity from the call, and it seems like the answer is: NO.
p.s. i called
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#15
11-02-2006, 04:34 AM
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Re: 27: JJ bubble call with shortie
doing some quick calculation with some assumptions:
I assume I win 70% of the times, therefore if I double up an dhere is the tirck, I will be in good position but we will still be 4. So I gave myself, at this point, 35% odds of winning, 25% doing second and 25% third and a small 15% to be the bubble. In this case 70% of the time I win 41usd and 30% I loose 25usd. This according to the math is slightly EV+ but to me is still a very bad value at risk. next hand shortie will pay BB and it is almost pot committed, It is a very silly risk to take.
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