What percentage of people expect to win when they go to the casino?

[Wake up CALL]

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So you're saying that 70-80% of people who buy a lottery ticket think they are going to win?

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Why else would they buy a lottery ticket? In other forms of -EV gambling you at least get some entertainment value( Slots, Craps, Sports wagering and the rest) but there is near zero entertainment value with the lottery, therefore the people playing would have the highest percentage of players expecting to win. At least 98% if not higher!!!

[BobJoeJim]

There's plenty of entertainment value in the lottery. You don't think people get an adrenaline rush from watching the powerball drawing, knowing that the ticket they spent $1 on could potentially be worth 8 figures? They know they aren't likely to win (although they may not fully grasp HOW unlikely), certainly don't "expect" to win, but play anyway. Yes, there is entertainment value.

[Wake up CALL]

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You don't think people get an adrenaline rush from watching the powerball drawing,

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Errrr, obviously not, else I wouldn't have worded my post thusly.

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Yes, there is entertainment value.

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I didn't mean to imply none, after all there is some entertainment value in watching paint dry, just very little. Ergo my 98% or higher and not an absolute 100% figure.

Personally I ocassionally purchase a lottery ticket, but I have never watched the drawing on TV and don't know of anyone who has other than by accidental channel surfing.

Now if you wish to include the "dreams factor" you suggest MegaBucks has the same value so they essentially cancel out. I submit to you that playing slots has much more entertainment value than playing the lottery and it's not even close, yet people still play the lottery. Why? Because they think they can beat the odds and win millions, not because it is entertaining to watch balls pop-up out of a vacuum device.

[Thythe]

I don't think there's much entertainment value in the lottery. People buy a ticket knowing that they have only a slight chance of winning, though. They buy it because of the small chance of winning millions. Practically everyone I know has bought at least 1 lottery ticket, and none of them expected to win. I'm sure they wanted and hoped to win, but they certainly didn't expect to.

[govman6767]

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Interesting that there are such a range of responses. I put 20-40% to encompass poker players plus random hippies and Asians who feel lucky because the moon is waxing and it's their lucky day of the month, or whatever.

People putting 80-100% are living in bizarro world, imo. The majority of punters are aware that they can't win in the long term playing casino games.

The question is tough to answer though because there's a big distinction between intellectual beliefs and deep-down hardwired beliefs. For instance, someone with a fear of snakes may intellectually realise that a carpet python won't hurt them, but they still won't touch it. Why not? Because deep down, unconsciously, they actually believe it will. Similar thing with religion - in my opinion a lot of people who identify as Christian (especially here in Australia) don't really, deep down believe a word of it. If they did, they'd be devoting their lives to God.

The point of this tangent is that even though I think a lot of punters intellectually know that they aren't going to win, I think some of them deep down believe they will. It's impossible to measure though since if you ask them they'll tell you they don't.

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Las Vegas, Atlantic City and other Gambling destinations were built on the premise that 80-100 percent of the people going there thought if they got lucky they could win.

Saying anything else would lead me to believe that Wynn is not really rich but just pretending to be rich.

[UATrewqaz]

People play lip service to "knowing" they are going to lose.

Any intelligent individual you talk to before going into a casino will admit he will probably lose, the house has an edge, etc.

However in the back of his mind is some image of him winning big.

Also casinos have been very crafty in how they talk about their "edge"

We as a society are used to edges in the sense they can be overcome. Say in sports for instance, team A has an "edge" over team B, that doesn't mean team B can't still win. That's how the public perceives a casino edge.

They don't understand that "house edge" equates to "mathematically guaranteed to lose (long run)"

[Mickey Brausch]

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People putting 80-100% are living in bizarro world, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]People putting less than 80-100% are living in a dark world, imo. They must be literally blind.

Else, why can't they see the millions of casino lights?

[Mickey Brausch]

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We as a society are used to edges in the sense they can be overcome. Say in sports for instance, team A has an "edge" over team B, that doesn't mean team B can't still win.
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That's how the public perceives a casino edge. They don't understand that "house edge" equates to "mathematically guaranteed to lose (long run)"

[/ QUOTE ]Variance works the same way in sports and casino games, actually, when you don't have the edge. You can win in the short term, but it's unlikely that you'll win long term.

[Cosimo]

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I actually think majority of punters are quite aware they will have less winning days than losing days. But variance is fun.

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How many punter acquaintances do you have? The people I know generally fall into two groups: those that know that gambling is -EV and therefore never gamble, and those that "know" it's -EV but think that they've got lucky hands, that "if they try hard enough" they'll figure out the "pattern." The latter group goes to the casino expecting to win.

Somewhere in the back of their head they know that they're more likely to lose, that the math is against them. But in the front of their head is that muddy hogwash that tells them that they are different.