What percentage of people expect to win when they go to the casino?

[Paul B.]

[ChrisV]

Interesting that there are such a range of responses. I put 20-40% to encompass poker players plus random hippies and Asians who feel lucky because the moon is waxing and it's their lucky day of the month, or whatever.

People putting 80-100% are living in bizarro world, imo. The majority of punters are aware that they can't win in the long term playing casino games.

The question is tough to answer though because there's a big distinction between intellectual beliefs and deep-down hardwired beliefs. For instance, someone with a fear of snakes may intellectually realise that a carpet python won't hurt them, but they still won't touch it. Why not? Because deep down, unconsciously, they actually believe it will. Similar thing with religion - in my opinion a lot of people who identify as Christian (especially here in Australia) don't really, deep down believe a word of it. If they did, they'd be devoting their lives to God.

The point of this tangent is that even though I think a lot of punters intellectually know that they aren't going to win, I think some of them deep down believe they will. It's impossible to measure though since if you ask them they'll tell you they don't.

[cardcounter0]

The really bizarro world thing is a lot of them actually know deep down they are going to lose also.

The tell is when they make "money management" statements like "I only lose what I can afford" or "I set a loss limit, when I lose the $50 I bring I go home", etc.

They know they are going to lose, and they enter the casino with a losing mind set. An interesting psychological study.

[ChrisV]

That is also true.

A lot of heavy gamblers are masochists, or fatalists. They lose compulsively because it justifies their depressive view of the world.

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
People putting 80-100% are living in bizarro world, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
They are living in the real world, IMHO. Probability doesn't influence peoples expectations -- note the number of people who play lotteries, and the number of people who get married without prenup agreements.

Gamblers don't incorporate expectation when deciding to play, or when playing. Reality comes to them like a sudden revelation when rationalizing losses.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
Gamblers don't incorporate expectation when deciding to play, or when playing. Reality comes to them like a sudden revelation when rationalizing losses.

[/ QUOTE ]

How are you reconciling this with the OP's phrasing that they "expect to win"?

It seems like your opinion is more that they don't really expect anything, which I agree with.

[Reef]

people *expect* to win probably anywhere from 70-95% of the time. How many do? Probably 40-50% on any given day.

[stigmata]

I actually think majority of punters are quite aware they will have less winning days than losing days. But variance is fun.

[testaaja]

Everybody expects to win but only a few do. I mean I see these people play lottery in Finland 'this weekend I will win!!11one'.
Edit: Okay not everyone thinks they will win, I'm over estimating a bit here. Let's say 70%-80%.

[Thythe]

So you're saying that 70-80% of people who buy a lottery ticket think they are going to win?