Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.

[Xhad]

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If UTG doesn't fold, I ALMOST never win. I either muck, or fold to a 3bet. She has QQ, KK, or AA here almost always. The only way I win is if she over played AK.

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No one calls 2 cold on the river with AK UI. Not even fish.

[Bruce D]

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Since UTG is going to have something better than random cards, the probability that your hand is best is in fact a lot lower.

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I assume you mean UTG1.. and yes, he almost DOES have random cards. He sees almost 80% of the pots.

[Hielko]

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It's almost right, but your calculations miss the fact that you also lose two BB when UTG folds but UTG+1 has a better hand

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ok, now im confused...

my formula says:

40% of the time we win 85% of a 15.25 bb pot. this is when UTG folds and 85% of the time we beat UTG+1.

60% of the time, we throw away 2bb.

isnt that what you have written (apart from the fact i have called the pot 15.25BB rather than 14.25)?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, we trow away 2BB 60% of the time when UTG calls and we trow 2BB away another 6% of the time when UTG folds but UTG+1 has the best hand.

The pot size I use in my calculations is probably a bit to low and yours is a bit to high (UTG+1 will fold some % of the time). I think 15.0 sounds about right.

[00Snitch]

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Is the money I lose 15% of the time when UTG1 has a J or Q in there somewhere?

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yes... look at what hielko and i have writen.

the pot is 14.25bb when it gets to you on the river. according to your assumtions, if you call, you never win because utg allways calls and beats you. if you raise, 40% of the time, utg will fold and utg+1 will call one more bet. 60% of the time utg will call and we lose.

now of that 40% of the time when utg folds, 100% of the time utg+1 will put another bet in the pot making it 15.25 (not counting our raise). 85% of those times, we win that 15.25bb.

so, 60% of time time we lose our 2bb flat out because utg calls. 15% of 40% of the times we lose because utg+1 beats us anyway even when utg folds.

[thefoosball]

why did you bet on the turn? utg has a pair and isnt gonna fold just because you bet. save your cash dude.

[Hielko]

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Since UTG is going to have something better than random cards, the probability that your hand is best is in fact a lot lower.

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I assume you mean UTG1.. and yes, he almost DOES have random cards. He sees almost 80% of the pots.

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The difference between 80% and 100% is significant. Also note that his cards become less random after all the postflop action. I assume that villain isn't going to the river with 100% of the hands he plays preflop. If he folds 10% of his worst hands on the flop, 10% of his worst hands on the turn and 10% of his worst hands on the river (and he folds 20% preflop) his handrange has shifted A LOT to his better holdings. Villain is a retard, but 99 isn't a good hand on this board against the top 50% of hands or something like that.

[00Snitch]

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No, we trow away 2BB 60% of the time when UTG calls and we trow 2BB away another 6% of the time when UTG folds but UTG+1 has the best hand

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0.4(0.85*15.25) - 0.6(2) = 3.98

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0.6(2) = 60% of the time we throw away 2bb. no arguments there.

0.4(0.85*15.25) = 40% of the time we win 85% of the pot. so 15% of the 40% of times we dont win the pot. 15% of 40% is 6%. so isnt what we are saying the same thing...?

hang on... i see... scrap all that above...

it should be 0.4(0.85*15.25 - 0.15*2) = 0.4(12.665) = 5.185

so my whole formula should read:

0.4(0.85*15.25 - 0.15*2) - 0.6*2
= 0.4(12.665) - 1.2
= 5.066 - 1.2
= 3.866

have i got it this time? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

edit: PS. hielko, while you are checking my math, how does it look in first post in this thread? as you can see, im not the best at this stuff [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Bruce D]

Edit.. Snitch beat me to it.. nice work!

I just needed a sounding board to get my head rolling, but you are fast on the drawing board!

No. UTG will only call my raise 40% of the time. That includes when he beats me with a J or a Q but he will also pay off some losers like 55 or 66 or a weak A. (Yes he was that horrible)

Sixty percent of the time he folds to the raise.

So we have
0.6(-2) + 0.4[0.6(13.25)+0.4[0.15(-2)+ 0.85(14.25)]=3.87

if we think the numbers are correct

[Bruce D]

The villian is a retard. I saw him raise with 53o and a 399 board he called a r/r and went to the river UI with 2 more overcards on the river and turn.

He was CONSTANTLY showing down bottom pair no kicker.

He was showing down his pps with no improvement with aggression shown through out the hand when 2, 3, sometimes 4 overcards were out on him.

I could give him 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 and I could guarantee you he would call with any of those hands with some frequency. He could also have Jx, or Qx. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see an UI ace here.

eg

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Bruce D is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Bruce D folds, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 caps</font>, MP3 calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.5SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 raises</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.75BB, 2 players)
MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8.75BB, 2 players)
MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Results:
Final pot: 10.75BB
<font color="#111111">MP3 showed Ad 8d</font>
<font color="#111111">MP1 mucks 3s As</font>

Villian mucked.

I do not give villian any credit for noteworthy holdings on a regualar basis. Yes, he could have me beat, but I don't think he has me beat as often as you may think if he calls.

[Bruce D]

An interesting thing that I think is more valuable than what we earn when UTG folds 40% of the time is what percentage does she have to fold in order for it to be neutral EV. The neutral point is when she calls exactly 86.6% of the time. If she calls more than that we lose, and if she calls less than that we gain.

I don't have the calculations in front of me to prove the math.

In other words if the villian (UTG) folds more than 14% of the time, the raise is +EV if we keep the assumptions of UTG1 intact.

Makes me think a raise is certainly in order. Can we expect her to call more than 86% of the time? She has to feel that she is good here more than 14% of the time.