Do you believe in luck?

[Thebes]

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My point is not necessarily waiting to be a big favorite, but to measure when the risk is worthwhile to you. Sometimes other variants enter to the game and decisions might be or not correct for some people, like my example above. I just feel you can't automatically play EV+ on every situation.
A clear example of this is when in tournaments you have to consider the prices and sometimes adjust your decision according them and what you feel is important (winning, getting into the money, winning spots in a satellite, etc.) I don't think this is any different on cash games where other unique situations might be present too.

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It seems to me then that these are other strategy considerations, or perhaps bankroll management considerations, rather than matters of luck.


I DO believe in luck, but I am very reluctant to apply the concept to any measured phenomenon. For example, I consider myself to have been very lucky in love, having found the love of my life at an early age and stuck with her... something that would be mighty hard to quantify. I would consider a +.005% coinflip over a lifetime to be within whatever standard deviation from the mean it might be based upon the total number of flips in the sample, fitting perfectly into the bell-curve world of coin flips.

Considering the idea of luck reminds me of the classic slit experiment in quantum physics, where the observation of the event changes the outcome from a waveform pattern to a definated particle. Since we observe most of the workings of poker, we have removed them from the realm of luck and placed them firmly into the world of statistics. If an event is observed (or observable depending upon the model), then its outcome conforms to classical statistical considerations.

[Gonso]

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OP: I guess do believe in luck in the ordinary sense, a can use it to descibe fortunate and unfortunate events. However it will always take a back seat (in my mind) where probability is concerned.

I can calculate EV and have some prediction ability with probability, but not with luck. So (again, in my mind), the nature of luck is pretty much irrelevant, particularly in poker. I'm not going to play any differently against a guy who's been calling and hitting inside straight draws all night versus a guy who been calling and missing straight draws all night.

[oliman]

Right, you flip a coin twice and call heads and get it both times you've been lucky. You flip a coin 100 times calling heads and win 75 then you've been very lucky but you carry on flicking then it will be 50%. Odds have no memory so its possble to flip 50 heads in row say x% its also x% to flip 50 tails in a row. So if you flipped your 50 heads then over time the 50 tails will come up as well. The odds even out eventually. Now in theory someone could be unlucky enough in poker that they have SUCH a massive bad run at the beggining that their life isn't long enough to even it all out but he'd have to be like 1 in a googleplex or something ridiculus like that and it wouldn't really matter cause after a month of that luck and anyone would give up.

But this is where the good runs and bad runs come in. When you're on fire its like calling heads and getting 75 out of a hundred and when you can't win a hand its like getting 25 out of a hundred coin flips so someone already said luck = variance. CORRECT. Someone also said it just seems like you get more bad beats than good ones cause you only remember the bad. CORRECT. If you dont believe us get Pkr Trkr play for a few years then see the results.

This works in all aspects of life. Live a +ev life and it'll be good. People who stand under trees get [censored] on by birds more than people who don't etc etc

[Poker Plan]

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Any opinions regarding the above question? Thanks!

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To gain maximum profit- you have to push every edge, even if it's small- but of course (as you've deduced) the smaller the edge, the larger the swings in your short term results. Plus: The smaller the edge, the more skill is required to correctly exploit it.

Ian