Do you believe in luck?

[imzadim]

I know that in the long run cards *should* run even, but is this really true?
If I was playing only coin flips situations against an opponent, for example, I’m pretty sure cards would eventually get even, but does this really happens when playing a game so complex like poker?
There are so many different situations in poker that I find really hard to believe that everything will eventually even out. For example, sometimes you play certain kind of players or are involved in such unique situations that you don't think will repeat very often or at all. Would you risk to go broke when you know is very unlikely that situation arrives again even though you have the odds in your favor?

Now, some people would definitively put their money on these situations, but I feel others (including me) would be more cautious since these particular situations won't arrive often enough to even out. Therefore I do believe some people are luckier than others: people that win these kinds of situations.

[StregaChess]

[ QUOTE ]
Now, some people would definitively put their money on these situations, but I feel others (including me) would be more cautious since these particular situations won't arrive often enough to even out.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are stating that you are folding +EV cause you believe it’s a unique situation and some how it won’t even out in the universe.
Well…..
That’s not a luck issue that’s a skill issue, if that’s how you are approaching poker it’s not going to even out for you.
Many who worry about “the universe balancing out” theoretical BS are so far from playing correctly that it’s really a mute discussion point.

Trust the force Luke....

[PantsOnFire]

I am very certain of one thing. There's no way for a human being to conceive of luck "evening out" over the long run. We all remember the bad beats a lot more clearly than when AA beats KK.

Our fragile human mind is not capable of looking at the long term in a completely objective manner. I would say that if you continue thinking the way you do you will need "Hair for Men" services a lot sooner than necessary.

If you keep making +EV decisions in poker, the long term outlook is positive. Short term fussing over results is the bane of many a poker player, myself included. It can result in tilt, scary bankroll levels, accusations of unfairness, calling other players donkeys, giving up the game, etc.

I believe the only time that +EV decisions are not good enought is if you are in games where there is cheating going on whether it's collusion, altering the deck, non-random shuffling or any form in between.

BTW, casinos make most of their money by having a slight edge over the customers in their games like craps, black jack, roulette, etc. Seems to me that over the years, this edge has directly translated into their profit margin.

[dedmoney]

I believe people create their own luck.

[mikever]

No and yes.

No, it's not some mystical force.

Yes, numbers can do some crazy things sometimes. Is it possible for someone, in their lifetime of poker, to win 70 percent of their coinflips, and another person to win only 40 percent? Mathmatically and statistically, yes, it's possible. Is that luck? I guess you could call it that.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe people create their own luck.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have a buddy who is a photographer for the Associated Press.

One evening he took a camera to the airport after dusk. He sat on hill for four hours with a full moon in the background of the flight path for landing jets. He finally got a shot of a 767 directly in front of the moon and perfectly framed. It was an award-winning shot that made many papers the next day.

To the untrained, this may have seemed like a "lucky shot" but your statement definitely applies here.

[StregaChess]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe the only time that +EV decisions are not good enought is if you are in games where there is cheating going on whether it's collusion, altering the deck, non-random shuffling or any form in between.


[/ QUOTE ]

I will give folks an out, that if they believe passing up +EV in a specific situation is based on a read. But there it's not truly +EV, it’s actually -EV, you've just not assigned the math to your observations to prove it’s actually –EV. The science is what it is, your personal results in the large scheme of things, just does not matter…..

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
I know that in the long run cards *should* run even, but is this really true?
If I was playing only coin flips situations against an opponent, for example, I’m pretty sure cards would eventually get even, but does this really happens when playing a game so complex like poker?
There are so many different situations in poker that I find really hard to believe that everything will eventually even out. For example, sometimes you play certain kind of players or are involved in such unique situations that you don't think will repeat very often or at all. Would you risk to go broke when you know is very unlikely that situation arrives again even though you have the odds in your favor?

Now, some people would definitively put their money on these situations, but I feel others (including me) would be more cautious since these particular situations won't arrive often enough to even out. Therefore I do believe some people are luckier than others: people that win these kinds of situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

If all your wagers are the same size, luck evens out over time.

If, however you lose to a 1 outer in a $80 million tournament at the final table, and hit a 1 outer in $2-5 NLHE home game a week later, your luck has not exactly evened out.

[phish]

No, cards will not "run even" over the course of anyone's lifetime. But this should make no difference to anybody.

The key is that no one knows whether he/she, from this point onward, is going to "run good" or bad. So as far as anyone is concerned, they should just be concerned with making the correct decisions and not worry about "luck".

On a related note: There's a lot of misguided concerns about imperfect shuffles, and such. I would argue that as long as no one knows or can predict the distribution of cards (dealt and/or to come), then the imperfect shuffle does not matter. My point is: whether the cards are distributed truly randomly or not doesn't matter. It matters only if someone has knowledge that can allow him to take advantage of that nonrandom distribution.

[gull]

Define luck.


(By the way, the cards DO NOT even out in the long run.)