QJs from sb .5/1 - shorthanded

[hustalasta]

Let me see if I have this right (my math is probably screwed up somewhere).

Lets assume we raise and the worst happens... the BB raises and the Button folds and Hero calls. Hero has contributed 5SB (2.5BB) into the 15SB (7.5BB) total pot.

65% of the time Hero doesnt make a flush so contributes 1 extra BB or 3.5BB total per hand. 65 x -3.5BB = -227.5BB

35% of the time Hero makes the flush. Lets assume Hero only gets one BB in on the turn and bets out the river to only get 1 last bet from the aggressor. Of the 11.5BB's in the final pot Hero contributed 4.5... winning 7BB. 35 x 7 = 245BB.

Of course it won happen this way every time and remember sometimes button is going to come along. Sometimes you will get a free turn card, sometimes you will back into a hand, sometimes you will get extra bets from the flop. I think that pretty much evens out the times you will make a flush and lose. Plus as someone else mentioned the overcards should not be discounted to 0.

[sean c]

hustalasta,

Your over thinking this. Lets say with two cards left you have a 35% chance to make your hand and you are againgst two other players. 65 times you lose a bet. 35 times you win 2(70 bets) 5/100 = .05 of a bet expectation.

[sean c]

hustalasta,

It too late to edit my post but when i say expectation that is your expectation on the flop bets and has nothing to do with the rest of the hand. Remember everything changes on the turn and river. For example lets say you miss your flush draw on the turn now with only one card remaining your equity drops to =(1-(37/46)) = 20% so every bet you put in on the turn you are actually losing money so if you have the pot odds to continue you should check and call not bet and raise.

[train.]

When I first played this hand I obviously thought limping in was the correct play. After Doc's review tho, I think my major mistake in this hand was not raising preflop.

The table has broken down to just 4 players. The first limper makes a terrible mistake by just limping. If he has a hand worth playing it should be raised. The button also fumbles here. Overlimping may not be as bad, but if he too has a playable hand he should be isoraising in position to knock out the blinds, especially a sb who has been playing tight/aggro.

With 2 poor plays ahead of me and with a fairly decent starting hand I think I should have raised in an attempt to shed the BB, take control of the hand and build a big pot for when I hit the flop hard. If I don't hit the flop hard it becomes easy to get away from the hand oop.

As for the flop and the turn, I've got strong draws, but only draws. I don't think I have the equity for raises here.

[Buckmulligan]

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

this isn't bad. Checkraising that turn and then leading any non AK river is probably also a decent plan.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



You think we're getting enough folds to make this profitable?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we probably have the equity, although this guy has to be able to get rid of the broadways on the river.

[sean c]

Trainslayer,

OOP i think just calling is fine. With position i raise. To say that not raising is a mistake IMO is not entirely true. The difficult decisions you had in this hand post flop kind of point this out.

[Absolution]

Check raise the flop. The rest is fine.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

so standard

[YesMehFriend]

Looks pretty standard. You can't count on the button to bet the river again. His turn bet could just mean he's trying to steal the pot. I like the bet.

Flop/turn: I like a turn c/r. BB's check indicates weakness (most likely overs ...) and button could be trying to steal the pot.