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#21
10-18-2006, 04:44 PM
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Re: Three Rivers Part III
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what's more likely? that villain decides to play AA in this exact (and extremely bizzare) way? or, villain has AQ/KQ and is playing his hand in the exact way any tightish/bleh midstakes live player would against an aggro opponent? [/ QUOTE ] Come on, man. He's not saying AA is *more likely* than AQ/KQ, he's saying it's likely enough that 10% of the time (or so) Hero's hand is good. That's why he calls. Obviously villain's hand containing a Q is more likely. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. I certainly don't think the villian had AA or KK, but I thought it was worth remembering so that the next time i find myself with AA on a river that double-pairs the board, I might know when it could be a value-bet/fold for me. (The earlier actions would obviously be different, because none of us would ever get our AA to the river with this action.) 
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#25
10-24-2006, 06:57 PM
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Re: Three Rivers Part III
After reading all the posts, and thinking about it myself. I think you have to call here. Getting 11:1 on winning the entire pot means he needs to have complete air here 8% of time. However, I think it is important here to also consider the slim chances he also has a J here as well. I think he could play 10-J or K-J the same way here. I have seen that play as well. It is less likely b/c of the way he played the flop. I think also how he interprets your play could influence his play against you on the flop as well.
In the end... it sucks but a call is in order.
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#26
10-28-2006, 07:08 PM
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Re: Three Rivers Part III
[ QUOTE ]
Izmet would be disappointed, but I would fold because I figure his chances of having a Q are about 99% and I'm about 99% sure of the read. [/ QUOTE ] Calling becomes +EV if hero thinks villain has a Q 91% of the time. Based on Andy's 99% read I think your right to fold, I'd say its closer to 92% which of course still doesn't make calling right. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#27
10-28-2006, 07:26 PM
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Re: Three Rivers Part III
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Izmet would be disappointed, but I would fold because I figure his chances of having a Q are about 99% and I'm about 99% sure of the read. [/ QUOTE ] Calling becomes +EV if hero thinks villain has a Q 91% of the time. Based on Andy's 99% read I think your right to fold, I'd say its closer to 92% which of course still doesn't make calling right. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] It's a little more complicated than that because some of his range will be the other J which I chop with.
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