Three Rivers Part III

[jfk]

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...paying off rivers in midlimit games when it's blatantly obvious that you're beat is also a mistake.

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...except every now and then an unknown is misplaying an overpair here. Yes, it is uncommon, in the neighborhood of about 11 to 1.

[surfdoc]

Did he hear Doug ridiculing him for folding too much? That may push him a bit to try and make a play but I seriosly doubt it. He has a Q. Find the muck.

[brick]

This board and action leads to lots of river bluffs with hands like AA, KK, diamonds. Maybe he is not so tight and has just been card dead.

I know I've made similar bets after being card-dead for a couple hours. Too many unknowns, call.

EDIT: could be a fold if you pick up a read. Some players will always have a Q here.

EDIT: good posts.

[danderso8]

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...paying off rivers in midlimit games when it's blatantly obvious that you're beat is also a mistake.

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...except every now and then an unknown is misplaying an overpair here. Yes, it is uncommon, in the neighborhood of about 11 to 1.

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I'm not entirely sure it's a misplay with the overpair here...Let's imagine we're in the villain's shoes with AA.

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Horrible player limps in MP, folded to me I raise K J in the CO. SB(tight guy) calls, BB calls.

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Ok, we all know villian should raise here, but maybe he's thinking he wants to keep a couple of victims in, and a three bet will scare em off. Assume that's what he did.

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Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checked to me, I bet, SB checkraises, others fold and I call.

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Villian decides the pot is big enough that he wants to charge the straight and flush draws, or get them out of the way.

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Turn is J . SB bets, I raise, he calls.

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Villian is scared of the second J.

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River is Q . SB bets, I...?

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Villian sees tht the J can't raise him now, decides he can't check-fold, and wants to extract value if you have KK. If he's good enough to fold to a raise, then I like his bet.

Back to Justin's position, I would call.

--dan

[mr pink]

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...paying off rivers in midlimit games when it's blatantly obvious that you're beat is also a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

...except every now and then an unknown is misplaying an overpair here. Yes, it is uncommon, in the neighborhood of about 11 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not entirely sure it's a misplay with the overpair here...Let's imagine we're in the villain's shoes with AA.

[ QUOTE ]
Horrible player limps in MP, folded to me I raise K J in the CO. SB(tight guy) calls, BB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, we all know villian should raise here, but maybe he's thinking he wants to keep a couple of victims in, and a three bet will scare em off. Assume that's what he did.

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Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checked to me, I bet, SB checkraises, others fold and I call.

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Villian decides the pot is big enough that he wants to charge the straight and flush draws, or get them out of the way.

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Turn is J . SB bets, I raise, he calls.

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Villian is scared of the second J.

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River is Q . SB bets, I...?

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Villian sees tht the J can't raise him now, decides he can't check-fold, and wants to extract value if you have KK. If he's good enough to fold to a raise, then I like his bet.

Back to Justin's position, I would call.

--dan

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what's more likely? that villain decides to play AA in this exact (and extremely bizzare) way? or, villain has AQ/KQ and is playing his hand in the exact way any tightish/bleh midstakes live player would against an aggro opponent?

[private joker]

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what's more likely? that villain decides to play AA in this exact (and extremely bizzare) way? or, villain has AQ/KQ and is playing his hand in the exact way any tightish/bleh midstakes live player would against an aggro opponent?

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Come on, man. He's not saying AA is *more likely* than AQ/KQ, he's saying it's likely enough that 10% of the time (or so) Hero's hand is good. That's why he calls.

Obviously villain's hand containing a Q is more likely.

[vmacosta]

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what's more likely? that villain decides to play AA in this exact (and extremely bizzare) way? or, villain has AQ/KQ and is playing his hand in the exact way any tightish/bleh midstakes live player would against an aggro opponent?

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Come on, man. He's not saying AA is *more likely* than AQ/KQ, he's saying it's likely enough that 10% of the time (or so) Hero's hand is good. That's why he calls.

Obviously villain's hand containing a Q is more likely.

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Guys,
There is almost no way this villain has AA/KK. This is a tight player at a Vegas 40/80, not a clueless player at a home game. If he's on a bluff, its with an underpair or busted draw. There is still some chance he has a J, particularly if he is angry with OP or thinks he's picked up a "tell". For those reasons, I'd call, but a better player might already know how to fold here.

[andyfox]

Izmet would be disappointed, but I would fold because I figure his chances of having a Q are about 99% and I'm about 99% sure of the read.

[SoManyMonkeys]

This is a must call in my regular game. The "Big Draw" with a stab on the river play....

[Gabe]

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I would fold because I figure his chances of having a Q are about 99% and I'm about 99% sure of the read.

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So you need 49BB before you'd consider calling.