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#21
10-10-2006, 02:32 AM
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Re: odds are supposed to come even right?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you are losing that much you need to get more aggressive, ie, RAISE MORE. There should not be that many hands left on the flop to suck out on you. Or you do not have enough experience yet to know when your big pair should be thrown into the muck on the flop, ie, no pre flop raising and a flop of 5a67, w/ two suited There are a few very good players who quit because they did not win over time. Because AA is a favored hand does not mean _you_ will win xx% of the time, it means all people who play it will win at that percentage over time. [/ QUOTE ] See this is why I don't put too much on here. Automatically someone comes on here who runs bad and he sucks. How bout some of the lucksters even out what happens to me. I just lost with low set in set vs. set 2nd time today. I struggle with hands like that to keep my bankroll afloat. I have played on the same free money for awhile. I am not a high roller online but for some reason I beat all my home games I play at and only went to the casino twice and won 2nd in a tourney of 200 and about 800 in an 8 hour or so sitting in NL $2-$5. You tell me. Online odds hate me. I am looking up my stats on my tracker. 68% win rate with AA. I do lay it down when the time says too. I don't go broke post flop just because I have AA. I am about a break even player but if I would win more when I have the best hand like I am supposed to I wouldn't be break even would I. [/ QUOTE ] live play=small sample of hands it takes literally years live to determine if you are a winning player. online play=larger sample of hands you might be having a bad stretch or you arent playing optimally and denying the fact that you have alot of room to improve, dont look at your game through rose colored glasses, be critical. I am a winning player at my level but i make blunders during every session and a critique my play, if i didnt do this then i wouldnt be a winning player. 
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#22
10-10-2006, 03:03 AM
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Re: odds are supposed to come even right?
To answer OP: yes, odds will come out even. I suspect your biggest error is that you might be confusing the raw showdown percentages preflop with what your aces actually average over entire hands. You're thinking they should be 80% or something... but you don't just go all in preflop everytime you have aces, right?
Another thing - I just won a monster pot off of a guy who couldn't lay down a pair of black kings to an all-diamond AJ9 flop, despite a brutal re-raise (I had a set of Js). He went into this fit about getting sucked out and kings never hold up and on and on... but 95% of his money went in on the flop. Look at all of the hands that could beat the guy there [any ace, JJ, 99, J9, any two diamonds, and there's even a ton of possible draws that aren't far behind]. He might be on another forum right now posting about how his premium pairs never hold up... Why not grab PT, and run 30,000 hands through it and see what you come up with? It sounds like you need a good dose of empirical data to get you off that bad luck vibe. It might turn out that you're doing just fine with your aces, but have a weak spot in handling low pairs or AK or something.
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#23
10-10-2006, 04:02 AM
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Re: odds are supposed to come even right?
[ QUOTE ]
To answer OP: yes, odds will come out even. [/ QUOTE ] You are mixing up theory and practice. Without published statistics you cannot claim that this is the case on every online site on the market. It's likely that everything is correct, but you cannot say it for sure. Same goes for cheating. You might remember that the random algorithm of a major site got hacked in the past, so it could happen again.
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#24
10-10-2006, 05:06 AM
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Re: odds are supposed to come even right?
I'm not mixing up anything - those odds will be accurate given a large enough sample size. You hardly need published statistics to validate a few hundred years of probability theory, especially with the computing power available these days (feel free to run AA vs. KK through a computer 10,000 times and see just how accurate those numbers are).
Online cheating... I hardly think the possibility of a site being hacked should undermine the whole system. Banks have been hacked, too, but you still keep money in them. How many other industries have been hacked that you make use of everyday? Anyone who spends a lot of time worried about cheating might as well just stop playing online. Same goes for anyone who thinks major sites being rigged against good players. Sorry to hear about your bankroll, but I've never had a problem with either of those sites. Besides, if they published stats and they looked normal, you'd just have a bunch of people saying the numbers weren't legit.
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#26
10-10-2006, 05:46 AM
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Re: odds are supposed to come even right?
In June I won 4 touneys totalling over $18000---Since june I hav'nt come in the money once. The suck outs have become a joke. They go against all the odds. Today I lost 3 tournrys with trips or better. But I know having played cards for over 40 yrs that everyting runs in cycles-- You run good you run bad. Have patients and if your play is solid you will win. Just try to keep your loses to a minimum.
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