odds are supposed to come even right?

bacats32 · #1 10-08-2006, 04:25 PM

Then when am I actually going to win 65% of the time when I am favored 65%. Or when will my AA quit getting cracked over40% of time. Are they ever only a 60%. I am constantly putting my money in on flop with best hand only to get sucked out on. I know sometimes I may only be a 55% - 60% favorite but I am losing in this position like I am the 60% dog. It is crazy. And really frustrating when I am constatnly favored and I only lose big pots when I am ahead when I put my money in. I rarely suck out too when I am the 40% to 45% dog. It is only like 1/4 of the time there.

agent_fish · #2 10-08-2006, 04:35 PM

I'm sorry to have to be the one to break it to you, but God hates you. Again, I'm sorry.

Tilty1 · #3 10-08-2006, 04:58 PM

You're not the only one. I've lose 12 BI's lately getting my money in as a favorite. I lost 5 of them too people that needed Runner-runner, and 3 of them to people that had 3 outs or less.

Variance.

bearcats54 · #4 10-08-2006, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Then when am I actually going to win 65% of the time when I am favored 65%. Or when will my AA quit getting cracked over40% of time. Are they ever only a 60%. I am constantly putting my money in on flop with best hand only to get sucked out on. I know sometimes I may only be a 55% - 60% favorite but I am losing in this position like I am the 60% dog. It is crazy. And really frustrating when I am constatnly favored and I only lose big pots when I am ahead when I put my money in. I rarely suck out too when I am the 40% to 45% dog. It is only like 1/4 of the time there.

[/ QUOTE ]
you need to play a lot more hands

Mike · #5 10-08-2006, 05:58 PM

If you are losing that much you need to get more aggressive, ie, RAISE MORE. There should not be that many hands left on the flop to suck out on you.

Or you do not have enough experience yet to know when your big pair should be thrown into the muck on the flop, ie, no pre flop raising and a flop of 567, w/ two suited

There are a few very good players who quit because they did not win over time. Because AA is a favored hand does not mean _you_ will win xx% of the time, it means all people who play it will win at that percentage over time.

gummy d · #6 10-08-2006, 06:02 PM

in theory yes...

AaronBrown · #7 10-08-2006, 06:23 PM

The cards do come out even. If you are losing too many showdowns, Mike gave you the usual reason. By not raising enough you let too many people stay in. AA wins only 31% of the time at a table of 10, if everybody stays in. The other problem is you don't win enough when people draw on you and lose. You can lose every showdown and still play winning poker, if you get people to pay enough for their draws.

Let's say you have trips on the turn and someone else is drawing for a flush. 20% of the time he'll hit, and you'll say you were an 80% favorite and lost. 80% of the time he won't hit and he'll fold, so you won't know what he had. You'll think you're unlucky, because you lost 100% of the time when you had an 80% advantage. But you got average luck, and if you made him pay enough to draw on you, you made a profit.

The second most common reason for being unlucky is you have tells. People know something about your holdings, so they fold more than they should when you have them beat, and you see more than your share of showdowns when they have you beat.

gull · #8 10-08-2006, 07:19 PM

The cards do not even out in the long run.

The Mayo · #9 10-08-2006, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The cards do not even out in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong.

CORed · #10 10-08-2006, 09:25 PM

Are your percentages based on pokertracker of carfully kept manual records, or are they just what it "seems like"? If you are just guessing at those percentages, it is very likely that they are not as bad as you think they are. If you are losing money, it is not because people are sucking out on you, it is because you have leaks in you game. You need to quit obsessing over your (probably imaginary) bad luck and figure out where you putting money in with the worst of it or getting less than you should with the best of it.

Depending on how many people are in the hand, 60% is not necessarily that far out of line for AA. AA will only win 30% of the time of 9 opponents see the river. Nonetheless, winning 30% of the time with 10 people in the hand will you will stll make money on it.