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#11
10-08-2006, 12:17 PM
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Re: trips on the river call or push
This is almost an odds question.
You beat more hands in his range than he beats you. He is folding a king 0% of the time. Occasionally he will also be bluffing, so raising and calling makes no difference as he isn't calling a raise if he was bluffing, but this simply adds to the percentage that you have the best hand. Push and get his last $10. 
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#12
10-08-2006, 12:17 PM
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Re: trips on the river call or push
I don't have any doubt at all that a worse hand will cal if we push. But there's more to it than that.
If the opponent flopped a set or 2-pair (giving him a boat now) he will very often play this way, depending on our own image. Not all of the hands you mention which we beat are equally as likely. I think you probably know this. This decision is close. Close enough in fact that I think EV-wise it probably doesn't matter. Which leads me to just call since given the choice between two lines with the same EV, the low-variance line is the better of the two.
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#14
10-08-2006, 12:27 PM
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Re: trips on the river call or push
[ QUOTE ]
No Str8 or FD's, you have top set w/A kicker. Since he called your PFR, the only hand that I may be scared of is KQ. I would push. [/ QUOTE ] You have top trips, not top set. You are beat by 88 and 55 as well. I'd still push, but more hands beat you than just KQ.
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#15
10-08-2006, 12:33 PM
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Re: trips on the river call or push
[ QUOTE ]
If the opponent flopped a set or 2-pair (giving him a boat now) he will very often play this way, depending on our own image. [/ QUOTE ] It's true that many players at this level would play a strong hand this way, but that's not reason in and of itself to put villain on a stronger hand. If you worry about a boat every time you have trips w/ top kicker you will be failing to extract a lot of money from weaker hands. At this level we are way ahead of most of the hands that will call a push, and that is why we should push. Every now and then you will go broke to the nuts, but don't feel bad about it when that happens-- what you should feel bad about is failing to make maximum extraction from willing contributors.
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#16
10-08-2006, 12:36 PM
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Re: trips on the river call or push
you are missing 40BB of value if you routinely call in these spots.
There are more hands in villains range that he will call down with that we are ahead of than there are hands he slowplayed that beat us so pushing here is correct. calling has less EV than pushing, it's not THAT close. perhaps he's not calling preflop with small Kings - but he's probably calling K2s+ and all those hands play that way. If you don't push here you are seeing monsters behind your wardrobe.
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#17
10-08-2006, 12:46 PM
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Re: trips on the river call or push
From villains perspective;
Preflop; OMG I have Kx and its SOOOTTEEED. Flop; Loook looook a K, me lucky. Lets call and drag him in. Turn; My king looks pretty lets call... River; OMG another King, lets bet !! There are a bunch of hands you beat, just push and stop worrying...
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#18
10-08-2006, 12:48 PM
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Re: trips on the river call or push
[ QUOTE ]
There are more hands in villains range that he will call down with that we are ahead of than there are hands he slowplayed that beat us so pushing here is correct. [/ QUOTE ] Good point Matrix-- KQ and K8 are usually leading or check-raising the turn, not check-calling it. The fact that these hands would have been slowplaying makes it less likely, not more likely, that they are in villains range.
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#20
10-12-2006, 08:25 AM
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Re: trips on the river call or push
You'd be surprised how many times you get called and get shown a weak K, a funky PP or even A high (yeah it has happened before). Really just push and expect to win. At 200nl you can start to worry about KQ in these spots, not at 25nl.
Ps. My last post was a bit condescending, sorry about that.
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