Week 6 CFB Notions

[ML4L]

Hey all,

OK, I almost never waver about my picks after they're made, but some reason, I am starting to have a bad feeling about a bunch of mine for this week. Specifically,

GA +2.5
UCONN +7
Air Force -3

The more that I think about it, the more that I think TN has to be the right side here. I'm starting to have an eerie feeling that this is one of those games where the books are making it exceedingly clear what they think of the match-up, so what looked like good "value" is really not. Does anyone know what Pinny opened the game at?

As to UConn, I kinda like the team this year as I've mentioned before, but they have real issues at QB. I was overlooking them for the most part, but the more that I think about it, I have a bad feeling about this line as well...

I have no idea what I was thinking with Air Force. My power ratings have Navy as the better team, and initially, I was intending to play Navy if the line came +3. But, I dug around a little more, and the more that I researched, the more that I thought that Air Force might actually be the side here due to their relative strength in rushing defense.

So, if I get a favorable nudge from the line movements, I think that I might get off some or all of these.

ML4L

[pirateboy]

I will say this: I am an SEC fanatic and Tennessee alum, first and foremost. I am very UNbiased in my objective analysis of this game as a capper and better.

One thing that you said that stuck out to me was that you think Georgia's defense is better than they are getting credit for. I humbly and wholeheartedly disagree.

UAB, Mississippi, and Colorado all have terrible, terrible offenses. I know you know how awful they are. Georgia didn't have to do much work to stop those teams. Colorado's QB and RB absolutely shredded them. Of course, Erik Ainge isn't mobile, but he's ranked 4th in the nation in pass efficieny, and because I bleed orange, I can tell you he's playing his best football ever.

Georgia's D is still stout. Johnson and Moses are better DEs than what Florida brought, but across the DL as a whole (and depth), Georgia's is not quite as good as the Gators'. UGA also doesn't come close to Florida's LB corps.

Georgia has a good defense, for sure. Probably a half notch below Florida. However, Tennessee's defense is nothing to sneeze at, and I think they have a lot of momentum. Georgia won't score more than 14-17 points AT BEST, and I think Tennessee can easily find 20 or more.

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
I will say this: I am an SEC fanatic and Tennessee alum, first and foremost. I am very UNbiased in my objective analysis of this game as a capper and better.

One thing that you said that stuck out to me was that you think Georgia's defense is better than they are getting credit for. I humbly and wholeheartedly disagree.

UAB, Mississippi, and Colorado all have terrible, terrible offenses. I know you know how awful they are. Georgia didn't have to do much work to stop those teams. Colorado's QB and RB absolutely shredded them. Of course, Erik Ainge isn't mobile, but he's ranked 4th in the nation in pass efficieny, and because I bleed orange, I can tell you he's playing his best football ever.

Georgia's D is still stout. Johnson and Moses are better DEs than what Florida brought, but across the DL as a whole (and depth), Georgia's is not quite as good as the Gators'. UGA also doesn't come close to Florida's LB corps.

Georgia has a good defense, for sure. Probably a half notch below Florida. However, Tennessee's defense is nothing to sneeze at, and I think they have a lot of momentum. Georgia won't score more than 14-17 points AT BEST, and I think Tennessee can easily find 20 or more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ugh, so not only do you have to pile on against my UGA pick, but you also ruin my buzz about the under... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] At least Joey T. is gonna start... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

When I checked last night, TN was -2.5 +100 on Pinny. 5 more cents and I can get off...

ML4L

[ML4L]

OK, added a few more games, so I'll just re-summarize my positions this week... All games are at Pinny unless otherwise noted.

Picks that I am keeping:

2 units - Texas -6 -105 vs Oklahoma (now -4; nice line, noob [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img])
2 units - Louisville/MTSU u55 -105
2 units - Georgia/Tennessee u38 -105
2 units - Temple +24.5 -112 vs Kent St.
2 units - W. Michigan -3 -105 at Ohio
2 units - Fla. Int'l +3 -105 at N. Texas (FIU now -3.5 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img])
2 units - Arkansas St. -5 -105 vs La. Monroe
2 units - Wake Forest +17 -114 vs Clemson
2 units - Wake Forest/Clemson u47 -102
1 unit - Boise St. -34.5 -115 vs La. Tech (Cascade)

Picks that I am being wishy-washy on (but will probably be stuck with):

2 units - Georgia +2.5 -105 vs Tennessee
2 units - UCONN +7 -105 at USF
2 units - Air Force -3 -105 vs Navy

ML4L

[ScottieK]

I'm not a sharp sports bettor or anything, but there are two games I'm looking at and wondering what is up with the line:

TCU +3 at Utah
TCU completely let me down last week by blowing it against BYU at home. Utah's got a 3-2 record, but they haven't beaten anybody good, and they got crushed by UCLA and Boise State. Sure, TCU had a meltdown last week, but shouldn't they be favored here?

Wyoming -1.5 at UNM
Wyoming, the "best 1-4 team in the country" is coming into Albuquerque to play the "Jekyll and Hyde" Lobos. The Lobos got their first home win in a long time against 8 point favorite UTEP two weeks ago, then played Air Force on the road and stunk it up. This line seems to me that the bookmakers just don't know what to do here, maybe because Wyoming's been close to beating some good teams but hasn't yet, and who knows which Lobos team will show up. FWIW, I think the crowd will be a good one...the crowd was excellent at the UTEP game, and it helped the Lobos more than once.

Thoughts on either? Thanks!

ScottieK

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]

TCU +3 at Utah
TCU completely let me down last week by blowing it against BYU at home. Utah's got a 3-2 record, but they haven't beaten anybody good, and they got crushed by UCLA and Boise State. Sure, TCU had a meltdown last week, but shouldn't they be favored here?

[/ QUOTE ]

See the thread that I started on this game for the reason that they are not favored.

[ QUOTE ]
Wyoming -1.5 at UNM
Wyoming, the "best 1-4 team in the country" is coming into Albuquerque to play the "Jekyll and Hyde" Lobos. The Lobos got their first home win in a long time against 8 point favorite UTEP two weeks ago, then played Air Force on the road and stunk it up. This line seems to me that the bookmakers just don't know what to do here, maybe because Wyoming's been close to beating some good teams but hasn't yet, and who knows which Lobos team will show up. FWIW, I think the crowd will be a good one...the crowd was excellent at the UTEP game, and it helped the Lobos more than once.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually thought about playing New Mexico here. I agree with your sentiment on Wyoming (i.e. they have been competitive in most games), but what a MISERABLE spot to be in. They traveled across the country (for the second time in three weeks) last week, outplayed 'Cuse, and lost their second close OT defeat of the season. This is also the same team that imploded over the second half of last year. Meanwhile, New Mexico has looked better lately after looking MISERABLE to start the season. They played Mizzou tough, beat UTEP (although that is not as big of a win as it seemed at the time), and hung with Air Force for three quarters last week. I don't think that this is the spot to lay points with Wyoming on the road...

ML4L

[BobJoeJim]

TCU was originally favored. The line shifted to Utah's favor when it was announced that TCU's quarterback might not make the trip because of a shoulder injury. An MRI has since been negative, and he will start, but simultaneously it was announced that their running back won't play, so the line stayed put at TCU +3.

That being said, I don't think Utah is any good, and I don't care if the third string is out there*, I still like TCU with the points.

*Of course this is hyperbole, but the second string is good enough.

[ScottieK]

[ QUOTE ]
TCU was originally favored. The line shifted to Utah's favor when it was announced that TCU's quarterback might not make the trip because of a shoulder injury. An MRI has since been negative, and he will start, but simultaneously it was announced that their running back won't play, so the line stayed put at TCU +3.

That being said, I don't think Utah is any good, and I don't care if the third string is out there*, I still like TCU with the points.

*Of course this is hyperbole, but the second string is good enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the news, ML4L and BobJoe [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

As for Wyoming-UNM, first off I'm a big time UNM homer. Having said that, they did open up terribly against that loss vs. Portland State. Beating NM State was expected, as was losing to Mizzou. They looked great on both sides of the ball vs. UTEP, making critical third- and fourth-down stops on defense, getting turnovers, and eating up a bunch of clock with the running game in the second half. They did hang with Air Force a bit, but the early fumble near their own end zone and subsequent AF touchdown set the tone for the day.

Like I said, it depends on what UNM team shows up. They are playing better, and backup QB Nelson looks more comfortable in the pocket and is making quicker decisions. But the Lobos are notorious for second-half meltdowns. They would need to get up big early (like the UTEP game) if they're going to win on Saturday....I don't like seeing the Lobos in a one-possession game in the fourth quarter...although their FG kicker, Kenny Byrd, is 74% and can hit them from 50+. They blew more halftime leads at home last year than I care to count, and they almost let UTEP back into it last time. It's probably a marginal play either way.

ScottieK

[ML4L]

OK, done a little more research and made a few more plays. I've also decided that I'm sticking with Air Force, UCONN, and UGA (although I am really worried about the loss of their kicker; good news for my under, though...).

New summary:

2 units - Texas -6 -105 vs Oklahoma (now -3.5; yuck)
2 units - Louisville/MTSU u55 -105 (now 52.5)
2 units - Georgia/Tennessee u38 -105
2 units - Temple +24.5 -112 vs Kent St.
2 units - W. Michigan -3 -105 at Ohio (now -4)
2 units - Fla. Int'l +3 -105 at N. Texas (FIU now -3.5)
2 units - Arkansas St. -5 -105 vs La. Monroe
2 units - Wake Forest +17 -114 vs Clemson
2 units - Wake Forest/Clemson u47 -102
2 units - Georgia +2.5 -105 vs Tennessee
2 units - UCONN +7 -105 at USF (now +6.5)
2 units - Air Force -3 -105 vs Navy (now -2.5)
1 unit - Boise St. -34.5 -115 vs La. Tech (Cascade) (now -35)

Adding:

2 units - LSU pk +111 at Florida (just beat the line move this morning; now +105 and dropping)
1 unit - Penn St. -2.5 -110 at Minnesota (Cascade; currently scalpable against Pinny)

I am also considering trying my hand at a couple of team totals.

Baylor u15.5 at Colorado
Mizzou o25.5 at Texas Tech

As always, thoughta are appreciated.

ML4L

[pirateboy]

I was seriously considering adding Wake Forest +17, and I will now with your pick.

Sorry you're keeping Georgia. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Do you like the under for Mizzou/Bufs? I think I do.