Week 6 CFB Notions

ML4L · #1 10-01-2006, 04:47 PM

18-17-1 YTD, -2.47 units

I hit the entire spectrum last week... Blowout winner (Ga. Tech); blowout loser (Arizona St.). Right side that narrowly missed (Notre Dame/Purdue over); wrong side that narrowly hit (Colorado/Mizzou under). "Easy" winner that probably wasn't as easy as it looked (Cincinnati); "easy" loser that also wasn't as easy as it looked (Miami FL). That leaves me with Michigan as the tie-breaker, for a small win.

Week 6 looks light for me. As with other people, I was caught off-guard by the early lines today, so I don't have the best of my numbers quite as much as I usually do (so far).

2 units - Texas -6 -105 vs Oklahoma
2 units - Louisville/MTSU u55 -105
2 units - Georgia/Tennessee u38 -105
2 units - Georgia +2.5 -105 vs Tennessee
2 units - UCONN +7 -105 at USF

And, the pick that will either make me look really smart or really dumb...

2 units - Temple +24.5 -112 vs Kent St.

I thought that most of the openers, particularly the totals, were a bit tighter than last week's. So, that combined with the fact that I was about 30 minutes late getting to the lines seems to have made my job a little tougher this week...

Anyway, write-ups periodically.

ML4L

MyTurn2Raise · #2 10-01-2006, 05:21 PM

bah...I should line shop better. I could've hit that Mizzou/Colorado total wrongly, too [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

I don't like the Georgia +2.5 pick, but the rest seem solid. Why do you like Georgia?

mmbt0ne · #3 10-01-2006, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the Georgia +2.5 pick, but the rest seem solid.

[/ QUOTE ]

The AJC today had a few things about the chances of Tereshinski starting this Saturday. I would definitely hold off betting this game until I heard who was starting, if that's possible.

MyTurn2Raise · #4 10-01-2006, 05:38 PM

maybe, because I'll probably get a better line on Tennessee if he does play. However, I don't think the team is much better with Joey T at the helm.

ML4L · #5 10-01-2006, 05:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't like the Georgia +2.5 pick, but the rest seem solid. Why do you like Georgia?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, makes me a little sick to my stomach to go against the MT2R/iggy juggernaut... I'm also not amused that what I thought was great value is apparently not, since the line has moved against me...

My primary thoughts are:

1) The Georgia defense is better than it's getting credit for. I think that it is a legit top-5 defense with no real weaknesses. Just as the top teams deserve a little bit of a "premium" built into their lines, I give a slight premium to truly outstanding units, and I feel that UGA deserves this premium.

2) I think that the Tennessee offense is worse than it is getting credit for. Or, specifically, I think that it is going to be worse in THIS game than it is getting credit for. This kinda ties into my point about the UGA defense, but when you play teams that can't stop the run and lack talent, you are going to be able to balance your attack and look really good. However, when you can't run the ball, second down starts to become a passing down, and those third and four's start to become third and eights. I don't like TN's talent level at RB, and I think that it will impact Ainge's performance.

People seem to be really focused on TN's 31+ PPG in their 4 games against people other than Florida, but I am 100% focused on their performance at home against Florida's D, which is notch below UGA's, IMO.

3) The GA offense concerns me. But, my view is that Tennessee does not have a dominant defense. They are 64th against the run, and they don't force turnovers (not in the top 50 in TO's forced and TN overall has a worse TO margin than UGA). If UGA was playing a really, really strong defense, such as LSU or Florida, I would look to play against them; I think UGA will be very lucky to score 14 against either of those teams. But, I don't see TN as the type of defense to really put the screws to UGA's offense. I think that the talent at RB for UGA will be able to keep the pressure off whichever QB they go with.

So, the way that I see it is that UGA's elite D has an edge on TN's good O, and TN's good D has an edge on UGA's mediocre O. Both teams have good special teams and good coaches. I made UGA -1 and thought that the number would converge there, so I took +2.5.

Feel free to argue any of these points...

ML4L

mmbt0ne · #6 10-01-2006, 05:40 PM

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maybe, because I'll probably get a better line on Tennessee if he does play. However, I don't think the team is much better with Joey T at the helm.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's a much smarter QB at this point who won't get rattled as easily. By all accounts, they should've beaten UF last year with him playing if Richt had managed the game better. He's not as physically skilled as Cox or Stafford, but he certainly runs the team better.

ML4L · #7 10-01-2006, 05:43 PM

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maybe, because I'll probably get a better line on Tennessee if he does play.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's interesting, because I am praying that Joey T doesn't play.

As I alluded in my reply to you about the game, against LSU/Florida, I'll take the less-talented, more experienced player. But, against the Tennessee defense, I'd honestly rather have the talent.

ML4L

iggymcfly · #8 10-01-2006, 06:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
People seem to be really focused on TN's 31+ PPG in their 4 games against people other than Florida, but I am 100% focused on their performance at home against Florida's D, which is notch below UGA's, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually agree with this sentiment. I see Georgia's defense holding Tennessee's offense to 17 points, but I still think it's an easy cover. Georgia's offense is just that bad. Stafford's 36-75 for 485 yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs and has shown no signs of getting better throughout the year. Last week, they scored 14 points against an Ole Miss team that hadn't given up less than 25 all year, including games against Memphis, Kentucky, and Wake Forest.

The stat you quoted about Tennessee's run defense is somewhat skewed, as most of the yards came in a letdown game against a triple option attack. Florida ran it 41 times for 121 yards and Cal had 23 carries for 64 yards.

Also, even though Tennessee hasn't forced a lot of turnovers this year, the fact is that Stafford's not very accurate or a very good decision maker. Georgia's been trying to neuter the offense as much as possible to keep him out of trouble, but when they get down against Tennessee, they're going to have to throw the ball downfield at some point, and when they do, it's probably going to result in a turnover. I'd probably bet Tennessee this week all the way up to -9.5.

The only way I see Georgia winning is if Tereshinski plays and plays at a much higher level than Stafford. From how he played against WKU before going down though, I don't think that's very likely.

ML4L · #9 10-01-2006, 07:52 PM

Did a little better on the second round of openers...

2 units - Air Force -3 -105 vs Navy
2 units - W. Michigan -3 -105 at Ohio
2 units - Fla. Int'l +3 -105 at N. Texas
2 units - Ark. St. -5 -105 vs La. Monroe

I'm fairly sure that I'm going to be on the right side of the line move on Air Force, FIU, and Ark. St. W. Michigan might move against me, but I'm not sure where it's going and I like the current number, so I played it...

ML4L

mmbt0ne · #10 10-03-2006, 09:36 AM

looks like Joe T's gonna go