Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Five (early edition)

[BiPolar_Nut]

How about this then: You bought a 6 pt teaser that turned into a 5 pt teaser if the line hits 3.5? Didn't get one of the points you paid for perhaps?

(I'm not tryin to speak for Performify...that'd be like a nursery school student speaking for a Diff Eq professor about creating integration tables.)

[Bryant_323]

If the spread moves against you later in the week, you always lose value. If the line opens at +2.5 and you bet it and later moves to +3.5, you have essentially given up a free point if you placed a straight bet.

Or if you teased it, you essentially paid to get a point that you could have had for free by waiting. Basically your teaser becomes a five point teaser in which you moved the line from +3.5 to +8.5, which is not a Wong teaser.

You never can be totally sure which way the line is going to move. But my general rule of thumb is to bet on favorites early and underdogs late. The public loves to bet favorites.

Edit: Bipolar beat me to it.

[Performify]

Both BiPolar and Bryant got it right.

The value in a Wong teaser (as you know) is crossing both the 3 and the 7.

if the line later moves to +3 or higher, you've lost the intrinsic "value" of your teaser because you could get the line across the three with a straight bet at that time. As both guys above put it, your teaser becomes an effective five point teaser on that play, which is giving up some value...

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason this game gives me worry is everything says that the Chiefs should be favored to win big time

[/ QUOTE ]

I will be quite surprised if this is not the #1 BSP selection this week. Then again...they have been right more than wrong this year. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Parlay Slow]

"Trap games" are complete nonsense and indicate pyschological doubt in your handicapping abilities vs that of the sportsbooks.

[Performify]

Obviously for anyone late to this party, ignore the Philly pick. Quite a bit of money has moved in on Dallas due to Philly injuries as it currently stands. Two weeks in a row bitten by a line move in the opposite direction as anticipated, albeit not a significant difference between -2.5 and -1.

I'll update on the game later, but if you don't have a position on it already, hold off until the line stabilizes at this time.

If you've got a position and are tremendously worried about it, look in to a teaser: I'd recommend teasing down the panthers as the other game. Note that this is probably not strongly +EV but would be a decent hedge/middle for an early position on Philly -2.5 if you're tremendously worried about it.

That would be teasing Carolina from -9 to -3 and teasing Dallas on the other leg from +1 to +7, if I wasn't perfectly clear.

[Jibba]

I'm big on Leinart, but I am still liking KC this week. The line already moved to -3.5 (not interested in the -3, -130) so I'm a bit hesitant, but I agree that KC wins this big. I think LJ comes up big and Leinart has a decent, but losing day.

[Performify]

Good injury news for Philly. Westbrook should play, as should standout CB Lito Sheppard.

If you haven't pulled the trigger on this, and are following my picks, go ahead and grab Philly. I recommend moving the line back to -2.5 -106 instead of the default -1 -119 (Pinny moved the default line because they were aparently getting slammed with teasers on Dallas).

[NajdorfDefense]

No love for personally talking to Lito and getting his status?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Performify]

Missed that. Awesome - how do you know Lito, and what did he say?