Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Five (early edition)

[Performify]

While the Early Edition picks didn't work out so well last week, but they're back this week. Good news is after the early success and last week's regression to the mean we can get back on the horse and expect more normal results. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I have two early lines that I expect to move and are worth recommending at this time.

Kansas City -3 -125 : five units, preliminary game of the week, and should present a nice middle/arb opportunity if not

Philly -2.5 -106 : two units, strong play, potential middle/arb opportunity as well...

I grabbed Philly tonight at the above price. I grabbed KC on monday night at a better line, but wasn't going to post as a formal pick until i had fully handicapped the game as my early attempts at predicting obviously weren't super last week.

But based on the trend in both of these lines, I'm again recommending early land grabs. The Chiefs line has already moved significantly from where I grabbed it, and it looks like its going to continue to move to the point that it could move off three, which is a big value grab now if that's indeed the case.

As usual, I'll be back with full handicapping and analysis.

Last Week: 1-4 on picks -8.63 units. 0-1 on Teaser -4 units. Total -12.63 units
YTD RESULTS: 9-5-1 on posted picks, +7.76 units (excludes teasers)
1-2-1 on Game of the Week, -4.8 units. 1-1 on Tease of the Week, -2 units
Year to date combined on all posted NFL picks (includes teasers): +5.76 units

[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
Kansas City -3 -125 : three units, strong play


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you playing this because you think they'll cover, or because you think the public will make the Cardinals an even bigger dog by the end of the week and you'll be able to get a juicy middle.

Personally I think it's a bet for the latter reason, but I think the line is a huge overreaction to last week.

Lori

[PropPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Philly -2.5 -106 : five units, preliminary game of the week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I loved this play at first (still might) but what held me back from betting this early is the fact the Eagles have been pretty banged up (injuries) and may have had some more Monday night. On the other hand Dallas is getting healthier and had a relatively easy game (for most of it) this past week. I do like the Eagles in this game but it’s not enough that I feel comfortable betting them early because of the health concerns and they’re coming off a short week. I’m going to wait to see what the injury statuses are closer to game time.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Kansas City -3 -125 : three units, strong play


[/ QUOTE ]

Are you playing this because you think they'll cover, or because you think the public will make the Cardinals an even bigger dog by the end of the week and you'll be able to get a juicy middle.

Personally I think it's a bet for the latter reason, but I think the line is a huge overreaction to last week.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]How is this line not -10 or so? Cardinals stunk against Atlanta and Chiefs beat a decent 49ers team. Denny Green's comments after the game made it appear that he lost his control and his cool and he hung Warner out to dry. Leinart is going in out of an emotional coaching decision rather than a calculated move. That doesnt bode well for Arizona.

I am just a casual NFL bettor but I know Denny Green way too well (from when he was in MN) and I think chiefs roll big in this one, unless they lose turnover game. Chiefs 31-10. I bet 5 Units.

[Lori]

I dislike betting the Chiefs on the road at the best of times and I don't think this is the best of times.

Lori

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
I dislike betting the Chiefs on the road at the best of times and I don't think this is the best of times.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]lol. Why?

I wonder what the stats are on Rookie QBs making their first at home midseason.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
I dislike betting the Chiefs on the road at the best of times and I don't think this is the best of times.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I also like how Utah's post made it sound like SF is better than ATL

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dislike betting the Chiefs on the road at the best of times and I don't think this is the best of times.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I also like how Utah's post made it sound like SF is better than ATL

[/ QUOTE ] I just said they were decent. Nothing more [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ATL is a far superior team to SF imho. The strength of the KC play is in the fact that AR is starting a rooking QB and Denny has lost some control. I have seen him like this before and it is never good. My analysis may be completely off and it is certainly uneducated because I dont handicap football.

[MacGuyV]

That's right Minnesota guy - I know how much you love Culpepper too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Honestly though the 49ers are a bad team (which was one reason I liked the KC last week). A lot of people don't agree in part because they played the Cardinals tough (whom everyone now agrees sucks) so I guess it's a circular argument. Personally I look at this game like last weeks Chargers-Ravens matchup and wonder why everyone has such a strong opinion on it either way but to each his own.

[Performify]

The KC play is strong for both reasons, imo. I believe that the linesmakers are under-appreciating the struggles that Leinart will face as a rookie QB. Yes, he's Matt Leinart and might be the most polished rookie QB in history. But he's still not ready to face a much improved KC defense with two standout corners.

I also believe that the line will get pushed quite a bit during the week which makes it strongly worth grabbing now.

On the Eagles, I certainly have injury concerns. however, based on early line movement I expect this to move towards Eagles -3 or higher especially when we have more firm news that Westbrook is playing. I also believe they outclass Dallas's aging secondary at home, regardless of Westbrook or no Westbrook.