*** OFFICIAL Arbitrage Posting Thread ***

[pitthockey]

Ahh..I'm an idiot
luckily the over hit

[insanity31]

[ QUOTE ]
Sportsbook has GB +17.5 at -260
BetWWTS has Eagles by 19 or more at +600
Sportsbook has Eagles by 18-21 at +800

If you put $520 on GB +17.5, $80 on the 18-21 window and $100 on over 19, you win $20 up through an 18 point win, $720 on a 19-21 point win and break even above that.

I was ok with the risk of 18 and like the chances of a blowout better so I went with...

$390 on GB +17.5, $50 on Eagles by 18-21 and $100 on Eagles by 19 or more

This gives me breakeven on Eagles by less than 18, I lose $90 if they win by exactly 18, I win $610 if they win by 19, 20 or 21 and I win $160 if they win by more than 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks, pinny actually has GB +17.5 at -230 if anyone else wants to do this

edit: -237 now

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Sportsbook has GB +17.5 at -260
BetWWTS has Eagles by 19 or more at +600
Sportsbook has Eagles by 18-21 at +800

If you put $520 on GB +17.5, $80 on the 18-21 window and $100 on over 19, you win $20 up through an 18 point win, $720 on a 19-21 point win and break even above that.

I was ok with the risk of 18 and like the chances of a blowout better so I went with...

$390 on GB +17.5, $50 on Eagles by 18-21 and $100 on Eagles by 19 or more

This gives me breakeven on Eagles by less than 18, I lose $90 if they win by exactly 18, I win $610 if they win by 19, 20 or 21 and I win $160 if they win by more than 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fantastic. I managed to get GB +17.5 -230 at Pinnacle (Alternate High) and thereby locked in a profit of $180, plus the free middle for $3680. Thanks again, great post.

EDIT - FWIW, I bet $2440 at Pin, $389 at SB and $500 at WWTS (WWTS is the line that limits the profitability of this bet).

[Performify]

Here's to Philly by three touchdowns... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Thanks for posting, i was able to get in.

[Utah]

Where is 17.5 on pinny? I dont see it in the props or regular line.

[insanity31]

NFL Alternate High

[Thremp]

Another option since this book is fiarly sharp.

GB +21.5 -425 at 5Dimes
Philly 19+ +450 at BetWWTS

[Mr. 33]

SWEEEEEEEET. If the Eagles win by 16 or 17 I will crap myself....in delight, of course!

[beetman]

[ QUOTE ]
Sportsbook has GB +17.5 at -260
BetWWTS has Eagles by 19 or more at +600
Sportsbook has Eagles by 18-21 at +800

[/ QUOTE ]

All of the EV in this arb is contained in the WWTS line. That line should be something like +230 at most. The other two are -EV on their own merits. (If +17.5 -260 were +EV on its own you'd gladly bet the Packers in a 6 pt teaser at even money as that's effectively betting +17.5 -240, and I don't think I need to argue too strenuously that the Eagles won't win by 18-21 more than 11.1% of the time)

In situations like these were it's not too difficult to idenfity where the value lies, I'm personally inclined to just bet the value line.

[Grasshopp3r]

The pinny line for GB +17.5 is -213. I can't find the betWWTS lines on their site. Where should I be looking? I looked at the props page.