AQo Party .5/1

[Befolder]

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Don't raise and don't fold.

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i agree. calling is bad also.

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Um...So don't raise, don't call, and don't fold?

WTF I never understand you Pooh-Bah types.

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Oh rlly? Do you see why?
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[DrModern]

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Don't raise and don't fold.

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i agree. calling is bad also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um...So don't raise, don't call, and don't fold?

WTF I never understand you Pooh-Bah types.

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Oh rlly? Do you see why?
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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It's "o rly" you n00b.

rofl at this, btw

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise and don't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. calling is bad also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um...So don't raise, don't call, and don't fold?

WTF I never understand you Pooh-Bah types.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh rlly? Do you see why?
[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

It's "o rly" you n00b.

rofl at this, btw

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Damn, I knew I wouldn't get the spelling right. I don't even know where it comes from. I know the bottom part, but not the owl, "O rly" part.

[kleinstadt1]

-grunch-

You have seven outs to win. 4 kings, 3 queens. 6.5-1 to catch it on the river. Pot laying you 7.25.

You also have three outs to counterfeit his hand (three jacks).

I would favor calling.

I would also favor calling the river, if a blank hits. Your read can't be that good (>12% chance you're wrong?) plus you'll encourage people to start taking shots at you.

[Smurph64]

crappy turn card, its call down time or fold depends on whether you feel lucky. Know there are side effects to both moves.

Call reduces the chances of people bluffing you in the future.

Fold means more people will bluff if they think they can so you can hammer them later.

I think its 50/50 here so whatever you are more comfortable with is good.

[engineer_mba]

Hi QueBob,

First, very good job with your first hand post. You definitely picked one that gives us something to discuss.

Second, *grunch*

Third, Hand Analysis.

When villian calls UTG, I think one of three things:

1. He has a good multiway hand
2. He is a passive (or simply bad) player
3. He has a monster and is looking to limp-raise.

Since you raise from from EP, and he does not re-raise, I would eliminate option three from the hand range.


When villian donkbets a flop, and then calls your raise, I would put him on Axs (obviously not hearts), two painted cards, two hearts (like T9h), or a really bad player. I have no objection to your flop play.

The turn card scares me, but atleast we can eliminate (QhTh) or (Th9h) as possible hands. Unfortunately, he could have just hit the flush or the straight. I don't like the read of AT because he led the flop just like he bet the turn. As the hand plays out, I would probably call the turn and call the river (unless a heart came). If I hadn't seen him show down many hands, I would probably call on the river just to see his hands and in case he doesn't have the flush (which I see frequently at this level).

Just my two cents,

Leo

[Milagro]

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I put him on AT.

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Well if you are sure Villian has AT then fold, you only have three outs so you are slightly worse than 14:1 to hit and the implied pot odds are certainly less than that.

However if you concede he might have other holdings then raise! A tight preflop player will cold call with a lot of holdings from the big blind and if it is down to heads up so against an aggressive player (one who would bet this turn with nearly anything to try to buy the pot) then a raise is profitable in the long run. Profitable because there will be enough times with villian will turn over holdings like Ax suited (not hearts of course) and others.

Here are the results of a Pokerstove analysis that actually put Hero ahead after the turn card:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,464 games 0.010 secs 246,400 games/sec

Board: Ah Jh 2c Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.2646 % 56.21% 01.06% { AdQs }
Hand 2: 42.7354 % 41.68% 01.06% { JJ-TT, AQs-A3s, Ah2h, KhQh, KJs, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, QJs, QhTh, JTs, AJo-A8o }

[knockonwood]

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Don't raise and don't fold.

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I know its dorky to quote good posters, but this is so suuccint...

[Ampelmann]

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You have seven outs to win. 4 kings, 3 queens.

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This is pretty optimistic.

[Ampelmann]

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Don't raise and don't fold.

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i agree. calling is bad also.

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Um...So don't raise, don't call, and don't fold?
WTF I never understand you Pooh-Bah types.

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He's a Carpal Tunnel. These guys are so far advanced in this game, we n00bs aren't supposed to understand them.