Headache

[adanthar]

If we give MP that original range earlier and then UTG+1 calls with the same range, you're better off when UTG+1 folds even with the sidepot (I said after playing with Pokerstove.) You clearly want him to fold and although you are barely getting the odds if you know he overcalls (28% to be exact if you add JTo to both their ranges, which I think you can) it's still sort of artificially creating odds, kinda like in HoH2 and whatever that recent thread was. I'm not a big fan.

[FortunaMaximus]

I don't think however you're able to tinker with the individual range probabilitties, you're going to get it to be even a marginally +EV play.

No matter how you tweak it, you're going to be looking at slightly better than 6-7.5 outs. And that's the best case scenario. The possible confusion on which stack's playing which in the range might also artificially create a fallacious assumption about the sidepot possibilities.

And this probably is a spot where even if you can find a very slight edge, you're better off using the information than getting it wrong here. You're miles away from pot-committed, and it's a tempting spot for a move, but it's fraught with pitfalls.

Being OOP in this particular instance is the thing that makes this a difficult decision, because I can see how this is going to be a spot move that'd alter your tourney outcome drastically with either of the decisions.

I think it comes down to a personal decision, really. And I wouldn't want to fold here, but I'd find a way to make myself to by looking at my stack and weighing the risks against future tournament equity.

Preflop's fine with these stacks though. It's thin and it's a somewhat insignificant amount. This is just one of the spots that you almost didn't want to see.

[bruce]

With this type of action barring any reads, one player has a made hand, either two pair or a set, and the other player has a big draw. On a really good day both villians may have "big" draws, one guy might have KQ and the other lad may have a smaller flush draw. But if I were in your shoes I would highly doubt my Ace is good and if the board pairs I'm now drawing dead, and with the extra player in the pot I now have two less outs and I would reluctantly fold barring a quick stove calculation. Of course I haven't worked out the math and I'm busy preparing for New Year's testing Kosher wines.

Bruce

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

So in option 1, we get 2:1 and in option 2 3:1. Let's gamble for a monster stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming you have about 28% equity, as wood estimates, you're taking a cEV hit here if there's a non-negligible chance of a MP fold. (I rate the chance of everyone folding as negligible enough to ignore, but speak up if you think otherwise.)

So you're giving a big stack a $EV premium over and above its proportion of the total available chips -- which is fine, but I'm not sure how much of a premium to assign it in this case. What was the average stack size at this point? The stacks at your table look pretty big for the blind level.

[Sherman]

Like some other posters have mentioned, if we tweak the ranges enough, we can make this slightly +cEV (like 1-2% edge at best). My point is that Mike is good enough with a deep stack that passing up on a 1-2% edge here is a fantastic play.

If it were a bigger edge, say 5% (first of all Mike probably wouldn't be asking the question b/c he would notice that his edge was bigger b/c it wouldn't be this close) he should definitally take it. And I think he agrees.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
Like some other posters have mentioned, if we tweak the ranges enough, we can make this slightly +cEV (like 1-2% edge at best). My point is that Mike is good enough with a deep stack that passing up on a 1-2% edge here is a fantastic play.

If it were a bigger edge, say 5% (first of all Mike probably wouldn't be asking the question b/c he would notice that his edge was bigger b/c it wouldn't be this close) he should definitally take it. And I think he agrees.

[/ QUOTE ]

Understood. However, whether he's marginally taking the worst or the best of it cEV wise, the question remains whether the potential stack size from an allin justifies the play. I'd still like to know what the average stack size was. Mike?

I ask because I'd consider the diminishing marginal utility of chips after you double the average stack size. This is a concept Daryl and I have postulated, albeit from different angles. It's controversial, of course, but this is one of the rare cases where it could potentially play a big role in your decision, in my opinion.

[MLG]

Atticus,
Avg was 10-12k, somewhere in that range.