Headache

MLG · #1 09-21-2006, 05:28 PM

Giant WTF.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t9955)
UTG (t12135)
UTG+1 (t13655)
MP1 (t5565)
MP2 (t6861)
MP3 (t6940)
CO (t15895)
Button (t8409)
SB (t1890)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t50, 1 fold, MP2 calls t50, MP3 calls t50, CO calls t50, Button raises to t350, 1 fold, Hero calls t300, UTG+1 calls t300, MP2 calls t300, MP3 folds, CO folds.

Flop: (t1525) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Button bets t777, Hero calls t777, UTG+1 raises to t2200, MP2 raises to t6511...folds back around to me.

You'll have to take my word for preflop being fine here. Given the table and the raiser it definitely was. I called the flop the first time around for a bunch of reasons, incouding sucking along other draws, and having kind of a [censored] sized stack for raising. Then all hell broke lose....now what?

BTW, I think this is a pretty heavy math analysis spot.

Sherman · #2 09-21-2006, 05:34 PM

If my math is correct, we are a little less than 2:1. I get t5,734 to win t11,790.

Assuming villain has a set, we have to fold here. If our A is an out (I really don't think it can be though) I still think we have to fold. We only make the flush 35% of the time by the river and if he has the set, some of our outs are no good.

If we want to get real technical, I guess we have runner-runner straight outs (1/2 an out) as well.

sleech · #3 09-21-2006, 05:44 PM

What shermn27 said, plus don't we have to worry about what UTG+1 is going to do? If you call, UTG+1 may push AI and you are stuck having to call with your whole stack on a 35% draw. For that reason, I think you have to fold here.

NoahSD · #4 09-21-2006, 05:46 PM

I've seen results, but I'll try and ignore.

I think you have to put him on a set without a read that he's a donk. I guess the fact that he checked the flop makes it more likely that it's something else, but lots of people just default to c/ring with sets, even on two-tone JT-high flops. Because of preflop, 33's much more likely than JJ or TT, but that doesn't matter here anyway. You're a 3:1 dog to any set and you're not getting odds.

MLG · #5 09-21-2006, 05:55 PM

in a default range should i not include 89c and KQc in the pushers range?

NoahSD · #6 09-21-2006, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
in a default range should i not include 89c and KQc in the pushers range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Could be way off.. but it should seem very likely to him that he's getting called by at least one made hand, and bigger flush draws probably don't go away often enough to justify pushing out other made hands/lower flush draws/straight draws that don't share outs.

Overthinking?

MLG · #7 09-21-2006, 06:10 PM

you think a player who is check over jamming a set is thinking like that?

also if you checked a super draw the first time, what would you do with it the second time...just cold call the rr, fold? i dunno.

bugstud · #8 09-21-2006, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in a default range should i not include 89c and KQc in the pushers range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Could be way off.. but it should seem very likely to him that he's getting called by at least one made hand, and bigger flush draws probably don't go away often enough to justify pushing out other made hands/lower flush draws/straight draws that don't share outs.

Overthinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

they ARE oesfd's tho

NoahSD · #9 09-21-2006, 06:25 PM

Yeah.. you guys are right.

Sherman · #10 09-21-2006, 06:30 PM

Okay, here's some pokerstove results:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

10,890 games 0.005 secs 2,178,000 games/sec

Board: Jc Tc 3h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.0294 % 32.03% 00.00% { Ac2c }
Hand 2: 67.9706 % 67.97% 00.00% { JJ-TT, 33, KcQc, 9c8c }

Any other hands we should add to that range? I don't think I can see any. Adding the OESFDs makes this a lot closer, but I still think it is a fold.