looking ahead Week 3 Atlanta vs. NO

[centja1]

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ATl pounds two quality teams NO barely beats two teams that wont win 7 games combined............ The crowd may be fired up till Vick picks up one 3rd and long with his legs and break there spitits in half. This line is a joke. Take Atlanta now because it will be -7 by Sunday. Performity correct me if I am very wrong.

p.s. If Reggie Bush thinks NFL players are fast wait until he tries to outrun Abraham{ if he plays} and Deangelo Hall if he lines up as a wideout.

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since i'm a pugilist NO fan, i'll give the homer take from the other site [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

New orleans is nothing more than a mediocre team right now, but both of their games should have had greater margins of victory than actually happened. They had trouble scoring touchdowns in the redzone against cleveland (4 FG) and they spotted GB 13 points in the first quarter due to a couple of freak turnovers (brees had the ball knocked out of his hand as he went to pass and another interception that was tipped and acrobatically caught by al harris at the sideline). Despite the setbacks, the offense played superbly the rest of the game, outscoring green bay 34-14.

that said, the only way new orleans wins this game on monday night is if vick has one of his bad games (entirely possible) and the crowd remains in it the entire way.

i've watched both falcons games as well and their running game is a sight to behold. The only thing is that vick accounts for quite a decent percentage of that, so if the saints linebackers and defensive ends can contain him somewhat, the falcons running game may not be as dominant as the past two weeks.

This scenario also unfolds if the saints jump out to an early lead as I don't believe Jim Mora to be the greatest strategic coach in the NFL and definitely has the capability to start calling a decent number of passing plays and going away from their obvious strength.

On top of all of that, it is hard to overstate how big a rivalry game this is for the fans. It isn't cowboys/skins or giants/eagles, but this is the one home game the fans care about more than any other every season. I've been to several of these games in atlanta, and i think the same goes for their fans also. Add in the first game back in the dome with U2 and Green Day warming up the crowd beforehand and I think the saints have more than a legitimate shot of covering that taken with the juice you're paying to lay the points make this not a big edge, if one at all.

I don't think anyone really knows what the line should be, although the falcons are undervalued, if anything. But, the high juice on laying the points (-127 right now at Pinny) would keep me away from it, although I think there is value in betting the saints moneyline at +172.

[Shipwreck]

now that the line moved it's not as great a play to back Atlanta, I was really more on top of it at the -3 +103 (or 106 sorry I don't recall exactly) that it was going at early on sunday night after the games. Vick has accounted for plenty of rushing yards for Atlanta, but even if he doesn't rush in this game Warrick dunn has ran behind the best running game in football for 130+ yards two weeks in a row; that's plenty to control the game. The real battle is free agent Grady Jackson vs. Atlanta's offensive line, and I don't think NO can win it. As for Brees, Deangelo hall anybody? Talk about a corner shutting some people down, he takes aways some significant options for brees. I'm still really confident in Atlanta at a decent price if it's available.

I also forgot to mention allen rossum, he's been providing Atlanta with some good field position as he's #9 and #5 on kickoff and punt returns in the league. That's another important factor in a tight battle.

[NajdorfDefense]

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now that the line moved it's not as great a play to back Atlanta, I was really more on top of it at the -3 +103 (or 106 sorry I don't recall exactly) that it was going at early on sunday night after the games. Vick has accounted for plenty of rushing yards for Atlanta, but even if he doesn't rush in this game Warrick dunn has ran behind the best running game in football for 130+ yards two weeks in a row; that's plenty to control the game. The real battle is free agent Grady Jackson vs. Atlanta's offensive line, and I don't think NO can win it. As for Brees, Deangelo hall anybody? Talk about a corner shutting some people down, he takes aways some significant options for brees. I'm still really confident in Atlanta at a decent price if it's available.

I also forgot to mention allen rossum, he's been providing Atlanta with some good field position as he's #9 and #5 on kickoff and punt returns in the league. That's another important factor in a tight battle.

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Hall is the most overrated corner in the NFL.

[Parlay Slow]

Hall is an outstanding defender and certainly a tier 1 cornerback

[MatusowIsBald]

I'm a newb to this forum but I hope you don't mind my .02 cents here...

I think this is one of those games that you can crunch numbers all you want the week before, but when you turn the TV on Monday night right before kickoff you're going to say to yourself "Holy crap, that atmosphere is unreal. How do the Falcons win in that?!" It's pretty hard to win on the road in the NFL, and it's even harder to win on the road in the NFL on MNF. Now add to that the fact that this is the first game for the Saints since Katrina and I really think the Falcons are walking into a buzzsaw. I just don't think this game will come down to who has more talent (the Falcons clearly do). I think this will be one of the most intense, emotional games I've ever seen considering everything that's at stake for NO.

And this may be slightly off-topic but I've made more money betting against Mike Vick than any other athlete in any sport. There seems to be this perception that because he's a great athlete, he must also be a great QB. I would strongly disagree. He's a great scrambler and elusive as hell, but the guy rarely even passes for 200 yards. That's awful for a QB. Furthermore, he continually overthrows guys on simple 5-yard outs and shorthops the ball on posts and in routes. If he wasn't so athletic I highly doubt he would have a job. But like I said, I'm not complaining. I love fading him. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[vulturesrow]

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I'm a newb to this forum but I hope you don't mind my .02 cents here...

I think this is one of those games that you can crunch numbers all you want the week before, but when you turn the TV on Monday night right before kickoff you're going to say to yourself "Holy crap, that atmosphere is unreal. How do the Falcons win in that?!" It's pretty hard to win on the road in the NFL, and it's even harder to win on the road in the NFL on MNF. Now add to that the fact that this is the first game for the Saints since Katrina and I really think the Falcons are walking into a buzzsaw. I just don't think this game will come down to who has more talent (the Falcons clearly do). I think this will be one of the most intense, emotional games I've ever seen considering everything that's at stake for NO.

And this may be slightly off-topic but I've made more money betting against Mike Vick than any other athlete in any sport. There seems to be this perception that because he's a great athlete, he must also be a great QB. I would strongly disagree. He's a great scrambler and elusive as hell, but the guy rarely even passes for 200 yards. That's awful for a QB. Furthermore, he continually overthrows guys on simple 5-yard outs and shorthops the ball on posts and in routes. If he wasn't so athletic I highly doubt he would have a job. But like I said, I'm not complaining. I love fading him. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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Agree somewhat with your assesment on Vick as a QB. But it looks like the Falcons are content this season to structure the offense to let Vick do what he does best and it seems to be working early on.

[Parlay Slow]

Vick has a fantastic regular season winning percentage.

[NoChance]

Atlanta is one of my top plays this week. I grabbed it -3.

[MatusowIsBald]

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Vick has a fantastic regular season winning percentage.

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So does Tommy Maddox, but I'd rather stab myself in the eyeball with a shrimp fork than bet on him anytime he starts a game. As for Vick, he's always been the benefactor of teams that have a stout defense and a very good running game. Granted, I will give you that the Falcons haven't exactly had the best receiving corp in the NFL. I still think he should be moved to WR though. They have a better QB in Schaub who is just wasting away on the bench.

[PropPlayer]

Atlanta probably has a lot of value. I can't bring myself to think clearly on this game because I really want to cheer for New Orleans; I have a feeling that some of the people betting NO might feel the same.