Hand reading excercise - JJ flops overpair

[terencetsao]

MMM tought decisions.. but im 80% sure you are aganist a draw.
why would he just put it in with (SET, KK, AA) why doesnt he wait until the turn??

[Nick C]

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MMM tought decisions.. but im 80% sure you are aganist a draw.
why would he just put it in with (SET, KK, AA) why doesnt he wait until the turn??

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Well, if your instincts are correct, then you should call, since the rough math I did was pessimistic (I gave the draw slightly better equity than it will really have on average and disregarded Hero's equity versus better made hands and also disregarded the chances that Hero is in fact significantly ahead).

[matrix]

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I would kick myself for not taking notes on villain's play and fold.

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It's not a case of not taking notes. ... But, whenever he's gotten to showdown his hand has made complete sense.

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this is no excuse not to keep notes on wht hands villains showdown.

When I first started to play I didn't note down SD's that made sense - now I write em all down and it helps my reads enormously.

I call he has a draw here often I think.

[kurto]

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I am much more interested in your thought process than your decision. What factors do you take into consideration when as you decide whether or not to call this?


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1. Effective stack sizes: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
2. Opponent's W$SD%: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
3. Opponent's flop aggro: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.
4. Opponent's winrate: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
5. My preflop aggro: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.
6. My c-betting percentage: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.

I don't really think a six-tabler is going to be doing this because of tilt. I think this is almost always a flush draw, and we're somewhat ahead when we call. However, I think there's also a decent chance villain is playing a lone T or even a pure bluff.

I know you said you weren't interested in our conclusions, but for the record I find a call here.

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I've being seeing a lot of these mass-overbets lately. And I've seen people calling them. And they've usually been really strong hands. I'm always thinking, why bet so much? Who's going to call. But people keep calling.

I mean... if the guy is open pushing/over betting like this all the time, then I'd have to rethink it for this guy. But I'm inclined to think that way-over-betting-for-value is the new thing.