Hand reading excercise - JJ flops overpair

[Kyriefurro]

Villain is a bit of a cypher. A few days ago, when I first met him, he ended up on my buddy list with some super LAG play (45/22/3 after 85 hands). Last night, though, I found him playing 6 tables which is pretty unusual for a non-2+2er. I've seen fish play 3 or 4 tables before, but never 6, so I was a little concerned. I ended up sitting down on 3 of his tables anyway (2 on purpose, 1 on accident). Over the next 100 hands or so, villain tightened up a little - 37/18/3 - but remained really LAG. Other than stats, I've never actually saw villain do anything particularly stupid.

So...villain may be a thinking LAG or even a 2+2er. Or he really is as bad as I initially though. I'm just not sure.

0.25/0.50 NLHE 6-max 6 players

Stacks:
Hero - $52.85
BB - $49.50

Hero is on the button w/ J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3</font>, SB folds, BB calls

($6.25) Flop <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets $5, <font color="red">BB raises to $46.50 (all-in)</font>, Hero says "WTF??" and............

I am much more interested in your thought process than your decission. What factors do you take into consideration when as you decide whether or not to call this?

[OHFreak]

Pretty good % of the time he's on a diamond draw w/the CRAI on the flop. I'd go ahead and call and expect to see AKdd. Given his lagginess, could be any two diamonds.

[samsonite2100]

I'd try to remember if I've seen him play his draws like this. If I were to guess, I'd put him on Ax diamonds.

[Nick C]

I suppose it could be 7d6d or Ad2d or Ad4d or Ad3d, but it's not like you have those hands crushed or anything.

Anyway, I would fold, since I don't know what sort of hands Villain will do this with, and I'm worried he got tricky preflop with AA or that he has a set.

[flo]

I would kick myself for not taking notes on villain's play and fold.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
I would kick myself for not taking notes on villain's play and fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a case of not taking notes. It's a case of villain hasn't done anything particularly noteworthy. Yes, he's been splashing around in a lot of pots. Yes, he's pretty agro. But, whenever he's gotten to showdown his hand has made complete sense. However, he's not getting to showdown all that often, and he's not folding all that often on any given street, which means he makes a habit of using aggression to run his opponents out of pots.

Unfortunately, when a villain plays like this, you don't get to see his cards, so you have no idea what he's actually doing it with. It could be air, or it could be good cards.

For that matter, the sample size is pretty small. He COULD actually be running that hot heh.

As I said, villain's a cypher right now.

[Nick C]

I don't really know what's best, but basically my idea is that you're probably either an approximate coinflip/slight favorite or are crushed. You are getting nearly 3:2, so (to oversimplify things) if your equity is either ~50 percent or ~0 percent, you'd need to be up against the coinflip roughly 80 percent of the time.

This is a pessimistic estimate, since even against AA or a set, you don't really have 0 percent equity, and some hands you're doing better than 50/50 with should be in Villain's range (they have to be, since we don't know what hands Villain will play this way). But, then again, you aren't really getting 3:2; it's closer to 11:8.

I guess what I'm saying, though, is that if Villain's hand has to be either a monster or a huge draw, then we need for it to be a huge draw instead of a monster a lot.

If, on the other hand, he'll do this with a hand you're beating badly like 99 or AT, then that helps considerably.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

I am much more interested in your thought process than your decision. What factors do you take into consideration when as you decide whether or not to call this?


[/ QUOTE ]

1. Effective stack sizes: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
2. Opponent's W$SD%: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
3. Opponent's flop aggro: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.
4. Opponent's winrate: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
5. My preflop aggro: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.
6. My c-betting percentage: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.

I don't really think a six-tabler is going to be doing this because of tilt. I think this is almost always a flush draw, and we're somewhat ahead when we call. However, I think there's also a decent chance villain is playing a lone T or even a pure bluff.

I know you said you weren't interested in our conclusions, but for the record I find a call here.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you said you weren't interested in our conclusions, but for the record I find a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have been more conscise in my request. What I wanted to avoid was the normal plague of 1 line answers. The conclussions aren't meaningful withought the reasons that lead to them. And the reasons aren't too meaning full if they're not clear enough to suggest a conclussion =).

I want it ALL, dammit [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

(And thanks for the insightful post, as always)

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Effective stack sizes: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
2. Opponent's W$SD%: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
3. Opponent's flop aggro: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.
4. Opponent's winrate: I'm less likely to call the larger this is.
5. My preflop aggro: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.
6. My c-betting percentage: I'm less likely to call the smaller this is.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this list of considerations, and since Hero's preflop aggro is probably larger than mine currently is, this means a call would probably be a better play for him than it would be for me.