Overthinking this hand? KTs UTG Party 1/2

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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Not good. Bet > Check/Call > Check/Fold

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If I did check that turn, I would not call a turn bet either, becuz I would not be able to turn down a chance to get 2-1 on my raise. Thats my way of saying I think check/raise is > Check/Call.

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I think check-raising that turn is pretty bad. Button can't have a 9 there? Well, a lot of perfectly decent players would cold call with T9s or 98s or A9s in a heartbeat in that spot. And if he has a king, it's most likely KQ or KJ which outkicks us.

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I disagree. Honestly I just cant pass up this turn raise getting 2-1 on my money. This is why I have an oversized bankroll, so I can make these high variance plays. I think I am significanly less than a 2-1 underdog after this action which is why I am raising getting 2-1 on my money, and if the BTN 3bets me or the other guy 3bets me after I take this line, I will have a very easy fold IMO. So its like a free roll turn raise to me, Im always getting 2-1 on my money when im best and when im losing I basically lose almost nothing since I was going to pay 2BBs to see a showdown anyways, assuming someone 3bets the turn. Now I suppose there will be times I run into a passively played AK,KQ,KJ,9x hand that just calls me down, so basically I will lose an extra big bet in this scenario, but im not too worried about that. Against sane opponents, I am checkraising this turn every time after this action getting 2-1 on my money. If Im wrong I really dont care, cuz I really dont have the ability not to checkraise in that spot. Call this a crutch but when I may have the best hand and I believe I am significantly less than a 2-1 underdog and I am getting 2-1 on a turn raise and I know exactly what to do if reraised, im raising every time. If I am not against sane opponents I am not raising this turn becuz then I will not know what to do if reraised.

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What hand are you putting the TAG button on? K3o? I find it ironic that you give players so little credit for their calls when your one of this forum's foremost advocates for the use of passive preflop lines.

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When have I ever advocated a passive preflop line? I will assume you mistyped and meant postflop. Let me tell you something Nate, In my mind, I have never once adovcated a passive postflop line, nor have I advocated an aggressive line, I only advocate money making lines. I dont think in terms of passiveness or aggressiveness. I simply tell the hero which line I think will make/save him the most money and thats it. Certainly there will be times that I am wrong, but thats my overall philosophy behind every one of my posts.

About the hand. Honestly, I dont know what a 1-2 tag will have when he takes that line. If I were to guess I would say his most likely hands are KQ,KJ, and I Have no idea what the other player has. But just becuz I think the Tag's most likely hands are KQ or KJ doesnt mean that a turn raising getting 2-1 on my money is incorrect. I still believe I am less than a 2-1 underdog in this situation, and that is why I am raising the turn getting 2-1 on my money. Who knows, maybe the tag will fold KQ or KJ if I take this powerful line, that is certainly not why I am making this play, but it is a small benefit to this play, and just becuz I raise the turn doesnt mean I have to bet the river. The turn just happens to be a special case to me. If the BB had folded the turn, I would then not raise getting 1:1 on my money becuz I no longer percieve a raise as profitable.

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ILP,

Yeah, I meant to say postflop, not preflop. And perhaps passive is the wrong word, but I do think that you encourage people to think about why they bet or raise when they do bet or raise, and that is a good thing. Incidentally, my aggression factor has fallen from about 2.7 to 2.2 in recent months, as I've gotten better and better about asking myself that question during the course of a hand.

I do think you're wrong here, though. I think you're behind Button something in excess of 70% of the time and you'll also occasionally be drawn out (sometimes to a chop) by the third opponent. Also the risk of a 3-bet is not completely negligible because while we do have to fold, we often give up 2 outs, which are not inconsiderable given how large the pot will have become. The point about potentailly folding KQ/KJ is interesting but IMO it's not close enough for that to sway the decision without a read.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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Not good. Bet > Check/Call > Check/Fold

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If I did check that turn, I would not call a turn bet either, becuz I would not be able to turn down a chance to get 2-1 on my raise. Thats my way of saying I think check/raise is > Check/Call.

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I think check-raising that turn is pretty bad. Button can't have a 9 there? Well, a lot of perfectly decent players would cold call with T9s or 98s or A9s in a heartbeat in that spot. And if he has a king, it's most likely KQ or KJ which outkicks us.

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I disagree. Honestly I just cant pass up this turn raise getting 2-1 on my money. This is why I have an oversized bankroll, so I can make these high variance plays. I think I am significanly less than a 2-1 underdog after this action which is why I am raising getting 2-1 on my money, and if the BTN 3bets me or the other guy 3bets me after I take this line, I will have a very easy fold IMO. So its like a free roll turn raise to me, Im always getting 2-1 on my money when im best and when im losing I basically lose almost nothing since I was going to pay 2BBs to see a showdown anyways, assuming someone 3bets the turn. Now I suppose there will be times I run into a passively played AK,KQ,KJ,9x hand that just calls me down, so basically I will lose an extra big bet in this scenario, but im not too worried about that. Against sane opponents, I am checkraising this turn every time after this action getting 2-1 on my money. If Im wrong I really dont care, cuz I really dont have the ability not to checkraise in that spot. Call this a crutch but when I may have the best hand and I believe I am significantly less than a 2-1 underdog and I am getting 2-1 on a turn raise and I know exactly what to do if reraised, im raising every time. If I am not against sane opponents I am not raising this turn becuz then I will not know what to do if reraised.

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What hand are you putting the TAG button on? K3o? I find it ironic that you give players so little credit for their calls when your one of this forum's foremost advocates for the use of passive preflop lines.

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When have I ever advocated a passive preflop line? I will assume you mistyped and meant postflop. Let me tell you something Nate, In my mind, I have never once adovcated a passive postflop line, nor have I advocated an aggressive line, I only advocate money making lines. I dont think in terms of passiveness or aggressiveness. I simply tell the hero which line I think will make/save him the most money and thats it. Certainly there will be times that I am wrong, but thats my overall philosophy behind every one of my posts.

About the hand. Honestly, I dont know what a 1-2 tag will have when he takes that line. If I were to guess I would say his most likely hands are KQ,KJ, and I Have no idea what the other player has. But just becuz I think the Tag's most likely hands are KQ or KJ doesnt mean that a turn raising getting 2-1 on my money is incorrect. I still believe I am less than a 2-1 underdog in this situation, and that is why I am raising the turn getting 2-1 on my money. Who knows, maybe the tag will fold KQ or KJ if I take this powerful line, that is certainly not why I am making this play, but it is a small benefit to this play, and just becuz I raise the turn doesnt mean I have to bet the river. The turn just happens to be a special case to me. If the BB had folded the turn, I would then not raise getting 1:1 on my money becuz I no longer percieve a raise as profitable.

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ILP,

Yeah, I meant to say postflop, not preflop. And perhaps passive is the wrong word, but I do think that you encourage people to think about why they bet or raise when they do bet or raise, and that is a good thing. Incidentally, my aggression factor has fallen from about 2.7 to 2.2 in recent months, as I've gotten better and better about asking myself that question during the course of a hand.

I do think you're wrong here, though. I think you're behind Button something in excess of 70% of the time and you'll also occasionally be drawn out (sometimes to a chop) by the third opponent. Also the risk of a 3-bet is not completely negligible because while we do have to fold, we often give up 2 outs, which are not inconsiderable given how large the pot will have become. The point about potentailly folding KQ/KJ is interesting but IMO it's not close enough for that to sway the decision without a read.

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You may be right Nate, I suppose a lot depends on our perception of the turn bettor. I do think the idea of potentially folding out KQ or KJ is interesting becuz we are almost getting infinite odds on this play. The costs of this strategy is mainly having to fold our 1-2 outer to a turn 3bet in this decent sized pot. For example if we assume we are committed to a showdown here, it will cost us 2BB's if we check/call the turn and the river. Yet if we raise the turn getting 2-1 on our money, we are essentially investing the 2BB's up front. If the villain calls our turn raise we can still check the river, and if hes a good enough player to still bet the river with a hand like KJ after we take this action then more power to him. Those times we have the best hand, we get 2-1 on our money, and those times a better hand 3bets us we dont give up much by folding, and those times the villain has a better hand that just calls us, he may not bet the river if we check, which means many times we will be investing the same amount of money whether we check/raise the turn or check/call the turn, but checkraising the turn makes us more money when we do have the best hand since we get to trap two players on the turn, and this strategy has the added kick of leveraging the other player against the tag which may or may not get him to fold KQ/KJ. Many players may laugh at the idea that a tag will fold KQ/KJ to this line, but the fact that we are getting almost infinite odds on this play makes this idea interesting. The natural drawback to this play is those times the tag calls our turn raise and we check the river and he bets and were faced with a tough decision.

[Dagger78]

This was my thinking at the time. But I realize folding for one bet is pretty terrible.

[Dagger78]

Hey man, told ya I sucked this one up.

[Dagger78]

I have played some sessions with him and haven't seen any glaring mistakes. No obviously bad spots to bluff, had odds to calls with draws, a few good value bets, etc. Assumed he was a solid player.

[Dagger78]

Honetly I can't tell you. Normally I would bet this turn without a thought and deal with a raise if it happened(calling or folding depending on who raised, and who had called). I had thought about it and thought I might actually gain more information if I checked and say the action without investing a bet. Clearly this lead to overthinking myself seeing the bet from the Villian, as I wouldn't expect him to bet anything I was currently ahead of.

[Dagger78]

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This is the most retarded super fold I've ever seen.


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Thanks, I seriously thought the same thing about 2 seconds after I did it. Just checking to make sure I'm stupid.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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This was my thinking at the time. But I realize folding for one bet is pretty terrible.

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I think your fold is a mistake, but there are probably 10 or 15 larger mistakes madeby 2+2ers posted in active threads in SSSH right now. A lot of the equity that we do have is tied up in getting a chop on the river, catching a miracle K, or perhaps the Button also having KTs. I find it really hard for him to have some kind of worse made hand here, and I think it's wishful thinking for him to be betting a draw into this many opponents.