200-400 Hand.

[Shandrax]

Thought about it again and now I think it's a not so close fold.

Hero needs about 3.5 outs to have the potodds. One overcard plus the backdraw draws give him just that but in most cases he isn't drawing to the nuts and his position is terrible.

Also what sort of draws can he pick up on the turn?
If a king comes he might have the best hand or lose to A-K or K-Q. At least he has 5 outs for improvement.
If an ace comes he picks up a gutshot for 4 outs (not the usual 8 outs that we expect to pick up when we go for a backdoor draw).
If a ten comes, he has the full 8 outs, but the board can pair giving someone tens full.
Finally if a diamond comes he has 9 outs to make the 2nd nut flush which could become ugly if the button has Ad-Qd (which could very well be possible looking at the pre-flop action).

Conclusion: Fold

[ArturiusX]

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he could have like 88-JJ or AK and maybe fold those guys in a fantasy world filled with fairies and gnomes

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So if your two opponents are fairies and gnomes, easy raise?

[oreopimp]

easy call. you are getting 15.5:1. add in maybe 1.5 BBs on the later streets in for each player (could be 2, but just to average in flop caller folding say 1.5). you are getting 21.5:1 on your flop bet (this is not effective odds, just what you are getting on your flop bet compared to final pot size.)

How can you not call?

[oreopimp]

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easy call. with your "1.5 outs" of backdoor draws

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why only 1.5?

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i think vehn is saying JUST the BD draws are worth 1.5, and obviosuly the pair draws add to that.

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and i'm asking why the BD draws are only worth 1.5

EDIT: basically, i'm looking for a full analysis of the backdoor outs. i don't really know exactly how to do it, but i'll give it a shot and post in a bit. i'd give it a little more than 2 outs off the top of my head.

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yeah its 2 outs sometimes slightly more like 2.5. I just say 2 usually. Ed says 1.5 for bd flush draws (and would say the bd str8 draw is about the same), other books say 2 for the flush, others say 1. so really it should be 2 easily, sometimes more.

[PokerBot123]

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If a ten comes, he has the full 8 outs, but the board can pair giving someone tens full.

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ROFL! Do you see why?

Also fold kings preflop every time, he might have aces.

[mjkidd]

Your backdoor flush and straight draws are probably worth a bit more than 2 outs here, which getting 15-1 nearly makes a call right. Your K and J provide you with certainly more than 0 outs, but with the reverse implied odds of hitting a K or J, it's not clear to me how much these outs should be valued, if at all.

However, if you runner-runner your straight or flush, you're likely to win a 25-30 sb pot, so the implied odds you're getting from these hands probably somewhat cancels out the reverse implied odds you're laying if you hit your K or J.

So I think call.

[Shandrax]

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If a ten comes, he has the full 8 outs, but the board can pair giving someone tens full.

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ROFL! Do you see why?

Also fold kings preflop every time, he might have aces.

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It's very likely that the button has something like A-Qs or T-T, because those hands are amonst the minimum qualifiers to re-raise.

If he does have T-T and makes the set on the turn he would have 10 outs to fill up on the river and if he has A-Qs your flush is worthless. Of course you shouldn't always fear the monster under your bed, but in this case you don't have any reason to discard these hands from the list of possible holdings.

Overall I am wondering if we can expect a "solution" from David on this. I mean what's the purpose of this whole question? Getting some stats in on how many people want to call or fold in this situation or just providing food for thought?

P.S.: If it was all about having the pot-odds for a call, then factors like position, domination and drawing to 2nd best hands could be ignored.

[Schneids]

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Overall I am wondering if we can expect a "solution" from David on this. I mean what's the purpose of this whole question? Getting some stats in on how many people want to call or fold in this situation or just providing food for thought?

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I'm pretty sure the point is it "looks" wrong to call but it's in fact right to do so.

[baronzeus]

SHANDRAX. if the turn is a ten, you are still behind. you have king high. if you hit your straight on the river, you win the hand no matter WHAT!!! do you see why????

[Baulucky]

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So if your two opponents are fairies and gnomes, easy raise?

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Also raise the sissies.