Flopped Flush Super Deep

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]

And now back to our villain...if he will always bet a queen here, you are losing no value by checking (maybe a little depending on his bet size, but not a huge percentage) so it's a pretty standard check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm the villain - I probably bet a naked Queen like maybe 5% of the time on that river, and only if I think my opponent is a complete Jackal. After all - what reasonable hands I expect to call my bet AND LOSE? There's a straight and a flush on the board. 2-pair hands can probably find a fold. Everything else (save for trip Q's with a worse kicker) either beats me or folds.

So I think a THINKING opponent WILL NOT BET THAT RIVER VERY OFTEN, so not betting that river with a flush is -EV overall.

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
Forgetting this specific villain for a minute (because the read on him is important), without a read, this is an easy bet and you lose tons of value out of not making it. It's a spot in MSNL (maybe HSNL too, although they are better at folding trips) where you simply must learn to get $$ out of your opponent. It's even much more important than what you do on the turn, because the magnitude is so much greater on the river.

And now back to our villain...if he will always bet a queen here, you are losing no value by checking (maybe a little depending on his bet size, but not a huge percentage) so it's a pretty standard check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice post, sir.

[sunrise]

tubasteve, your avatar is making me so dizzy i have no idea what to do with this hand. :P

[XraySpeX]

I don't see him having a full house here. If he had two pair/set on the flop or turn wouldn't he raise to get you to fold an Ac or Kc?

I would even think he would raise you at some point with just a queen....

I think he has to have been drawing for a club and you should check/call the river.

XraySpeX

Bet the flop just about always. I prefer a bet on the turn again. The river is a check/call with deep stacks, IMO.

[0evg0]

I'll come clean.

I checked the river pretty much planning to just call.

Villain fires 1100 into 1600 and I continue to try to figure out wtf he has. I decide that a full house just doesn't make much sense since he's not limping Q6/Q7/Q9 and he's got to be raising a set somewhere on the flop or turn. So I decide that AQ is more likely than anything else. He was the type to limp KQ/AQ 6-handed with 100xbb, and had played passively on previous hands and called me down too. Then considering my constant betting/raising I figured his calling standards vs me were probably getting reduced to nothing and that he'd very likely call a raise with AQ/KQ, and then probably QJ/QT as well.

So yeah, I did it. Normally I never would, but I went ahead and C/R'ed to 3k obv planning to fold to a push.

Good news was that I was correct in that he did not have a full house.

[ QUOTE ]
I'll come clean.

I checked the river pretty much planning to just call.

Villain fires 1100 into 1600 and I continue to try to figure out wtf he has. I decide that a full house just doesn't make much sense since he's not limping Q6/Q7/Q9 and he's got to be raising a set somewhere on the flop or turn. So I decide that AQ is more likely than anything else. He was the type to limp KQ/AQ 6-handed with 100xbb, and had played passively on previous hands and called me down too. Then considering my constant betting/raising I figured his calling standards vs me were probably getting reduced to nothing and that he'd very likely call a raise with AQ/KQ, and then probably QJ/QT as well.

So yeah, I did it. Normally I never would, but I went ahead and C/R'ed to 3k obv planning to fold to a push.

Good news was that I was correct in that he did not have a full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just vomitted a little in my mouth.

[0evg0]

Yeah.

At least no one can claim this is a brag thread.

If it wasn't for Nath's thread I wasn't planning on posting the results out of sheer embarassment.

[nath]

man you gotta lose the FPS

[0evg0]

I'm trying. It's getting better, I promise.