MLB season wins

[Waterproof]

[ QUOTE ]
I created this thread to generate some actual discussion. Let's not turn this into another Red Sox vs. Yankees thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[roundmann]

under on Washington is a lock !!!!!!
Let me repeat that...Under on Washington is a LOCK !!!!!

[roundmann]

If you doubled your money on a stock in 6 months you wouldn't be happy?

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
If you doubled your money on a stock in 6 months you wouldn't be happy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure! But 6 months from now I don't expect approximately a 50% chance that my stock portfolio will be worth NOTHING! Even a 40% chance of being worth nothing which would be spectacular edge on one of these bets. I'm not stopping anyone from tieing up a portion of their bankroll for 6 months but it just doesn't make much sense to me.

Stocks and bets are an apples and oranges discussion.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As over 87 -119
Jays over 86 -110


[/ QUOTE ]
I think these are horrible value.

[/ QUOTE ]

The As had a third-order win-lose record of 91.2-70.8. They have a team of young guys getting better. They signed Loiaza who isn't great, but gives them an average starting pitcher continuing their great depth.

The Jays had a third-order win-lose record of 80.4-81.6. Inspite of the fact I think the Jays paid too much $ in FA and gave up to much in their trading to pick up Glaus and Overbay, the cost of that should be felt mainly in future years, not this year. The Jays have added BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett, Troy Glaus, and Lyle Overbay and their only real loss was Koskie and Hudson. In terms of 2005 VORP Glaus is +44.5, Koskie is -11.0, Overbay is +33.0, Hudson is -17.4, BJ is +25.2, and AJ is +33.1. That is a net of 98.4, or +9.8 wins. That alone is enough to put them around 90 wins. Most of the team is young and should age well which should help. A full year of Roy Halladay should help. Losing Hudson's defense hurts, but not enough to make the Jays over 86 -110 bad value.

That said, both of the above aren't as good as under on the Yankees.

[DougOzzzz]

This article actually has the A's as a 96 win team last year, and the Blue Jays as an 86 win team. I haven't read the book so I don't know what methods were used, though.

I agree with both of these overs.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
This article actually has the A's as a 96 win team last year, and the Blue Jays as an 86 win team. I haven't read the book so I don't know what methods were used, though.

I agree with both of these overs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, they are using some form of pythagerous based on base runs (BsR). I was using third-order wins which is based on adjusted EQA and you can see here BP adjusted standings. And everyone should know that the various pythagerean methods are better at predicting next year's win total than actual wins and losses from last year.

[gomberg]

I think the Wash and Cle under bets are very strong. Here's an analysis on Clevland that someone sent me...

CLEVELAND INDIANS Moving in/moving out: Free-agent right-hander Paul
Byrd, a crafty sort, was signed to take the place of last year's ace,
ERA champ Kevin Millwood (who was eventually handed the keys to the
Rangers' kingdom). The Indians replaced Scott Elarton (signed by the
Royals) with free-agent Jason Johnson of the Tigers. Cleveland didn't
get the closer it was after (B.J. Ryan, Trevor Hoffman), but is fine
bringing back aging Bob Wickman (45 saves in '05). Still, the loss of
bullpen standout Bobby Howry (signed with the Cubs after 79 games and
a 2.47 ERA) is going to hurt.


Lowdown: Arguably the best team in baseball during the second half of
the season, their final week slide was an absolute killer. But the
Indians still have all that young offensive talent (Travis Hafner,
Victor Martinez, Jhonny Peralta, Grady Sizemore) and a rotation second
only to that one in Chicago. The Tribe will challenge for the title
again. But that questionable 'pen is going to have to do its share.

There are a couple of sophmore slumps in there somewhere, and KC/DET improved from last year.

[JBB]

I think I may fade the Yanks 162 times at whichever of a handful of books offer the best lines on a given game. Anyone think this is a good/bad/way too time consuming activity?

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I may fade the Yanks 162 times at whichever of a handful of books offer the best lines on a given game. Anyone think this is a good/bad/way too time consuming activity?


[/ QUOTE ]

162 is wrong. Although possibly profitable like it was last year. It will generally be profitable although small. If you can pick and choose favorably it is much better. The line is right sometimes and even wrong in the Yanks favor a very small percentage of the time. But typically there are about 100 or so solid fades per season on the Yankees.