MLB season wins

[DougOzzzz]

It's a little early for this but I just noticed that Pinnacle has posted these lines.

Some of the bets that I like are:
NYY UNDER 100.5 -121 (probably late getting in on this, but this number seems ridiculous).
TB OVER 67.5 -108 - Should maintain a solid offense, while their pitching can't POSSIBLY get worse next year.
LAD UNDER 85 +114 - Nice price for what I see as a team likely to finish around .500
MIL OVER 78.5 -108 - This team is headed in the right direction, and I think an 80-85 win season is likely to build upon the .500 year last season.
NYM UNDER 91 -108

I hear WAS opened at 81, and I would have loved the Under at that number, but now they are at 80 with -132 juice on the under. Not nearly as attractive.

Haven't really researched these much and I am not betting anything yet. Just thought it was interesting to post the numbers and start some discussion.

[MyTurn2Raise]

It pains me to say this, but I bet
under 94.5 -102 on my beloved Cardinals

They've lost some key players this off-season and done nothing to replace them. Rolen back is nice, but what else is a + for the forthcoming team compared to last year. The rest of the division has improved which will effect the schedule strength alot.

[crockpot]

i like:

Arizona UNDER 76.5 -119
Minnesota OVER 80 -119
Yankees UNDER 100.5 -121
Washington UNDER 80 -132

but the lines on all these bets indicate that everyone is already all over them. wish i'd been faster...

by the way, i'm all over the indians to win the AL and WS on VIP (was 14-1 and 30-1, now 12-1 and 28-1).

[MadTiger]

Go Tribe!

They might trade my fav young guy, Coco Crisp, to the BoSox. The cats they are getting for him, one is being sent to Philly to get a OF to "replace" him. They are keeping the 3B. If it goes that way.

I can't wait until mid-Feb, when this all settles and I can start homework.

[SumZero]

I don't like NYM under there. I'd be afraid to bet on the Mets or the Braves just because logic tells me the Braves are a good bet for Under and Mets for Over, but the Braves have a huge track record of overacheiving all logic.

Here is my little researched take on it (note by my figuring if you know for fact the true talent level of a team you only need .5 a game to overcome the -108 juice on most teams. You need a full game advantage once the juice around -113. You need 1.5 game around -130):

Arizona under 76.5 wins -119
Atlanta under 90 wins -125
Baltimore under 75.5 -108
Red Sox over 92 -110
Cubs under 85 -106
White Sox under 92 -108
Reds under 74 -108
Cleveland over 91 -108
Rockies under 68.5 +102
Tigers over 77 -108
Marlins over +123
Houston under 83.5 +103
Royals over 61.5 -121
Angels under 88.5 -108
Dodgers under 85 +114
Brewers over 78.5 -108
Twins over 80 -119
Mets over 91 -108
Yankees under 100.5 -110
As over 87 -119
Phillies over 81.5 -115
Pirates under 75.5 -106
Padres under 77.5 -106
Giants under 81.5 -104
Mariners over 74.5 -108
Cardinals under 94.5 -102
Rays over 67.5 -108
Rangers over 79.5 -104
Jays over 86 -110
Nationals under 80 -132

Although I wouldn't bet on all of those.

I think the best values are probably the Yankees U, Rangers O, White Sox U, Indians O, Dodgers U, and Brewers O.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
As over 87 -119
Jays over 86 -110


[/ QUOTE ]

I think these are horrible value.

Twins over 80 -119 is the most intriguing IMO. If the Sox and Tribe are good, it's going to be tough for them. But, then again, they do have KC in their division and that's like a free 12-6.

[mrbaseball]

These long term bets suck. You tie up capital for over 6 months on even moneyish bets. You need to figure in an extra 2-5% edge that you are giving up just by tieing up the cash and making it unusable for so long.

There are much better opportunities than any O/U season long bet. The only winner with these things is the house.

[DougOzzzz]

yeah, but on the other hand I'm fairly confident that it's MUCH easier to find a big edge with these.

for instance, if you think the Yankees "true" expected wins should be around 95, you should win the under bet about 80% of the time. 80% with -120 juice? Try finding that on a single game. Even if you think it should be 97, then you win over 70%.

Then again, maybe you believe the Yanks are a true 100.5 win team this year.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]

Here is my little researched take on it (note by my figuring if you know for fact the true talent level of a team you only need .5 a game to overcome the -108 juice on most teams. You need a full game advantage once the juice around -113. You need 1.5 game around -130):


[/ QUOTE ]

I get -113 as a fair line if you know a team is .5 wins better than the total and -131 if you know they are 1 win better(or worse).

[Waterproof]

[ QUOTE ]
There are much better opportunities than any O/U season long bet. The only winner with these things is the house.

[/ QUOTE ] agreed. I never bet these [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Anyway, I like your bet on Mil (young talent), but I haven't been following them this off season. Have they done anything?

I don't like the bets on the 2 NY teams or LA.

It seems like the Yanks can break 100 any year. It's a big number, but the AL East looks weaker this year, they won 95 last year, it's -121, and their pitching comes back healthy.

The Dodgers and Mets are both actively trading/buying. Both teams have made a commitment to improve this off season, and they should. Also LA plays in the NL West.

I'm not trying to flame (just curious); why are you on these teams?