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#32
08-18-2006, 05:54 PM
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Re: my posts are stupid?
fair enough, i think there's such a thing as overthinking these situations which i am prob. guilty of doing.
1st hand i pushed, pfr called with AcQx button agonized and timed down and folded (wtf) so i have no idea what he was doing, maybe KxJc or something. turn brought flush and riv paired board, i was berated and called a "dirty jew" by button saying he always runs into monsters. 2nd hand i called, non-diamond river i led (2/3) and he folded, so strange. i have whiffed on a turn c/r so many times and found myself on a 3 flush board kicking myself for giving a free card that i am 2nd-guessing every line apparently. i guess on the turn there is no line oop that does not let villain play perfectly... 
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#33
08-18-2006, 08:44 PM
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Re: my posts are stupid?
OK - everyone is taking the instinctive approach and yelling push -- but where are the numbers?? This is not as obvious as people are making it out to be.
This is a $400 flop decision, since there is no way to play this pot without being allin. Hard to imagine any FE. If only the min raiser calls, we are getting around 630/400 = 1.55 to 1, meaning we have to win around 39% of the time to make this profitable to be all in on the flop heads up...unless a player has KK I believe it gets much more profitable with 2 callers. I do think its worth asking under what circumstances can you fold? If we make a simple assumption that those times the min raiser does not have KK, he has either a made flush (we are 35% to win) or a pair and flush drawn (AcAx, AcK, QcQx, etc -- 70% to win) (for arguments sake, although this probably overstates this probability of a flush given PF action). Lets say for simplicity these situations are half and half. I would guess button has a monster or is trying to get a free turn card with the ace of clubs. That would mean a hand like KK, AQs, or AK with the ace of clubs (with perhaps the final hand being the most likely given preflop action). If our opponent does not have top set and has either a made flush or pair and a flush draw with equal probablility we are a little better than a coin flip against this range. This makes getting it all in a no brainer +ev if he does not have KK. However, if he has has KK here only 10-15% of the time or so to make this an neutral play!! (given my probably adverse assumptions, but still interesting for the sake of example). I think, against tighter players, one of these guys does have KK here maybe 10%+ (maybe more?) of the time given the action (although I would think that KK should not have made either the $90 bet or the min raise....but i have seen hands like that played this way) I understand there are many assumptions here -- it is very player dependant...but against "rocks" i think this is a neutral play. Against LAG probably a very good play. If the PF raiser only RR AA, KK, AK i think its a bad play. I am also not giving any credit to pushing and having BOTH players call with a big club...QQ and AK with a big club or something like that. That is very profitable and perhaps enough to negate the earlier negative. Just thought it would be interesting to take the devil's advocate view...
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