Set of 10's on a dangerous board - 2/4 NL

[yvesaint]

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AA and 88 cancel each other out, both are calling.

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AA and 88 do NOT cancel each other out, because 88 is like a million times more likely.
Also, nobody is EVER folding a flush.

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65d on a 4-flush turn NEVER folds? I flatly disagree. 76? 87?
88 may be more likely, but doesn't affect the results because all the $$ goes in on turn anyway then. Hero bets, he shoves, or Hero shoves, Villain calls. No diff, he's got his one out.


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waddafck are you talking about. are you saying wait for a 4th diamond then shove to fold out worse flushes??

also if 88 is more likely of course that affects the hand. that means more hands we beat and less hands we dont beat, i mean duh

[yvesaint]

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If we are behind 80% of the time, we shove and get called;
Villain's equity is 66%, giving him 53% of pots.

a]20% of time we are ahead but he will suck out 35% when he calls, making us 13% Net to win those hands, [and giving Villain 7%]
b]we are behind 80% of time *34% equity against his flush = 27% to win.
c] Therefore our Fold Equity must make up the difference, to get him to fold 17% of the times he is ahead, {which equals 60%} to make shoving EV=0.
{Assumes AA and 88 cancels for ease of use}

IF, however, we assume we are only behind 60% of the time, then it's an easy shove because we will
a] suck out 20% [33%*60%],
b] stay ahead 40%*65% = 27%, and as long as
c] our FE is >6% it's +EV to shove.

I think. Gladhanding, brickbats, and witheringly [correct] criticism welcomed.

Naj

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you are never folding out a flush w/a flop push lmao. put your FE on flop v. flushes at 0 pls

[NajdorfDefense]

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If we are behind 80% of the time, we shove and get called;
Villain's equity is 66%, giving him 53% of pots.

a]20% of time we are ahead but he will suck out 35% when he calls, making us 13% Net to win those hands, [and giving Villain 7%]
b]we are behind 80% of time *34% equity against his flush = 27% to win.
c] Therefore our Fold Equity must make up the difference, to get him to fold 17% of the times he is ahead, {which equals 60%} to make shoving EV=0.
{Assumes AA and 88 cancels for ease of use}

IF, however, we assume we are only behind 60% of the time, then it's an easy shove because we will
a] suck out 20% [33%*60%],
b] stay ahead 40%*65% = 27%, and as long as
c] our FE is >6% it's +EV to shove.
Naj

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you are never folding out a flush w/a flop push lmao. put your FE on flop v. flushes at 0 pls

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Fine, so if we are behind 80% time, we should not shove. That's pretty much my point. I think that makes sense and is easy to understand, no?

Naj