NL50: QQ on KKx flop

[dd323]

50NL online == $.25/$.50 blinds

[Delphin]

I make it $20 preflop and fold to a push. On that flop, having the initiative I probably push when checked to or fold to a push.

As played, I think you are reading too much into villain's bet size. $10 could be 1/2 or 2/3 pot rounded up or 3/4 or a PSB rounded down. Having shown no aggression in the hand, his bet could be just trying to take down the pot or trying to build a pot with a monster hand, but I still think the push is good for the reasons you stated.

[BlackjackAJ]

KingKory-
You questions about what to do are way to specific. Obviously most boards are better than this board, as many hands in his range have us beat here. On a completely dry board going broke isn't nearly as bad as it is on this flop. Just call his reraise preflop and PLAY POKER. Repopping it to 20 is retarded, makes you lose value out of everything you are crushing. Calling his re-raise lets him invest some more money when we have him crushed. Again, most of these situations in NL are read dependent.

[aces_dad]

His hand looks a lot like AK to me and your push is a bluff.

It sounds like your primary goal is to not lay down the best hand (which is unavoidable at times BTW), if so, just call flop, and bet turn if checked to, fold if bet into. You're not going to get rich from 10's on these flops, rather, you'll win money from 10's on all under flops.

[jskinn04]

I'm thinking Bayseian here.

Ways for villain to have each likely hand:

AA-6
KK-1
AK-8
QQ-1
JJ-6

22 total hands.

I don't think TAG villain is reraising light because he's OOP and Hero opened UTG.

On the flop there are 15 hands smoking Hero, and 6 that Hero beats. Villain may slowplay the best of his range sometimes and he might also c/r bluff w/ JJ every now and then. I'll assume villain is still a 15:6 (2.5:1) favorite when he leads out on the flop. The pot odds on the flop are 22:10 (2.2:1). Thus, calling the flop is marginal for immediate odds.

IMO Hero has at best 0 implied odds for the rest of the hand. Hero will fold to any other significant bet. If turn is check, check, Hero makes a small bet and maybe gets paid off or maybe gets c/r-ed all-in and has to fold.

<font color="blue">Calling on the flop is worse than folding.</font>

The other condition to test is whether pushing is better than folding.

Assumptions:

Hero and villain started with $58 stacks. If you want go ahead and add $1 to Hero's EV at the end of the calculation.

AA calls a push 60% of the time.
QQ calls a push 40% of the time.
JJ calls a push 20% of the time.

Hands villain folds=
.4(6) + .6(1) + (.8)(6) = 7.8
AA QQ JJ

Villain folds 7.8/22 = 35.5% of the time.
FE = ($50 + $22)(.355) = $25.56

Villain calls, Hero wins:
AK; call%; Equity; pot AA
EV = (8/22)(1.00)(.08)($116) + (6/22)(.6)(.08)($116) + (1/22)(.4)(.5)($116) + (6/22)(.2)(.92)($116) = $11.77
QQ JJ

Hero's total equity is $25.56 + $11.77 = $37.33

<font color="blue"> With these assumptions, pushing is a big loser</font>

Folding to the flop bet is best.

For hypotheticals I'm going to calculate the EV of pushing if villain always calls with JJ and always folds AA (wtf?)

Villain folds 6.6/22 = 30%

FE = .3*$72 = $21.6

Villain calls and Hero wins:
EV = (8/22)(1.00)(.08)($116) + (0/22)(.6)(.08)($116) + (1/22)(.4)(.5)($116) + (6/22)(1.0)(.92)($116) = $33.53

Total EV = $21.6 + $33.53 = $55.13.

<font color="blue">Even if villain is a complete idiot, pushing is barely +EV to folding</font>.

[Dangeresque]

[ QUOTE ]
I make it $20 preflop and fold to a push. On that flop, having the initiative I probably push when checked to or fold to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting better than 2-1 on a call if villain pushes. How can you fold QQ after going $20? You're pot committed.

Never mind, preflop you're committed, I should have said... after that flop, not so much.

[PokerPadawan]

That is a really great post, thanks. I was kind of thinking this when I decided to write down his possible hands and realized that he has a K a huge fraction of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] That told me all I needed to know.

[PokerPadawan]

For the curious, I pushed and he called with JJ. Whether that was a brilliant play or just dumb luck, I'll probably never know, but I think in the future I may fold the flop.

[bruin]

I would call the flop here and bet turn if checked to. If villain fires again on the turn then I'm getting out.

Your logic that AK wouldn't bet here is off base. If I had AK on this flop I would almost never check, and I'd bet pretty much the same as what the villain did.

Pushing is by far the worst play. You're rarely ever getting called by a worse hand. You were lucky in this situation that this is what happened.

Folding is OK but a little weak-- I like calling the flop and re-evaluating on the turn. We could easliy be ahead and it will be pretty clear what to do after the turn card and the villain's action.