2/4 Double nut draw on turn facing big bet

[joewatch]

You da Man Silent A.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
You da Man Silent A.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now the real question : does he have a set 70% of the time or more?

My initial guess is "yes", but that's one wierd way to play a set other than QQ.

[harmonix]

@ silent A
Impressive! really good work..
I thought I was going to comment this hand..


Harmonix

[Silent A]

There's an error in my calcs. Hero has $426 (not $326) in his stack after villain's check-raise on the turn. This will tend to make calling better and pushing worse.

Just how much, I don't have time to figure out right now, but it will probably reduce the set frequency to at least 60%.

[christyirish]

When the big blind checks that flop,
I think you should bet it. If the button bets behind you, are you going to call? if so, why not bet it your self?

I would bet the pot on the flop and if I didnt,I would bet the pot on the turn. I dont understand the half pot bet. Id be happy to win this pot there and then. There is about 15%
of a buy-in in the middle.
Call the pot raise on the turn. Id say thats pretty standard.

[Silent A]

OK here's the propper totals:

EV of a call = 202 - 137B - 130D
EV of a push = 28 + 241B + 201D

EV call = EV push if :

B + 0.873D = 0.46

Again, the value of a bluff is equivalent to a draw so the set frequency doesn't depend much on how often villain is bluffing vs. drawing.

Final result : If villain has a set <font color="red">50%</font> of the time or more, you're better off calling.

[imfatandugly]

[ QUOTE ]
OK here's the propper totals:

EV of a call = 202 - 137B - 130D
EV of a push = 28 + 241B + 201D

EV call = EV push if :

B + 0.873D = 0.46

Again, the value of a bluff is equivalent to a draw so the set frequency doesn't depend much on how often villain is bluffing vs. drawing.

Final result : If villain has a set <font color="red">50%</font> of the time or more, you're better off calling.

[/ QUOTE ]


good work. your a calculating machine.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You da Man Silent A.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now the real question : does he have a set 70% of the time or more?

My initial guess is "yes", but that's one wierd way to play a set other than QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the set that you assumed on the flop often checked in this spot? This game does have crazy redraws, so I don't understand why he would check. (I know, unknowns are bad).

Also, now villain has checked again on the turn, why is hero making a ~ 1/2 pot sized bet here? Should we be looking for action?

This is a weird hand, in terms of how BB played it. The only hand that makes sense to me is AAQQ.

[joewatch]

No, I would say that AQQx or some sort of broadway wrap.

[wpr101]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You da Man Silent A.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now the real question : does he have a set 70% of the time or more?

My initial guess is "yes", but that's one wierd way to play a set other than QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice read. He had QQ.