2/4 Double nut draw on turn facing big bet

[wpr101]

No real reads... sorry. Thoughts on all streets?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($529.90)
Hero ($478.40)
MP ($382)
CO ($116)
Button ($1086.60)
SB ($245.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $4, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $16</font>, Hero calls $12, Button calls $12, SB calls $12.

Flop: ($64) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($64) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $36</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $169</font>, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls $133.

River: ($402) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $293.4 (All-In)</font>, Button calls $293.40.

Final Pot: $988.80

[CallYNotRaise06]

standard. sometimes i bet this flop.

[Full Metal]

Looks good, i'd consider betting the flop. I'm just curious to see if it would be better to stick it on the turn?

[joewatch]

It's still +EV to stick it in on the turn, but probably less so. Hopefully Silent A or one of the other mathematicians will run the numbers for us...hint

[LA_Price]

I might stick it in on the turn here since you're out of position. But provided that you plan to bet allin on any card that gives you the nuts as well as a few others I think calling is fine. Also the button could be pulling a play here and bluff you off the best hand some of the time.

[glass_onion]

Anyone else think about folding preflop. I hate UTG, one person may have AA giving you effectively 3 cards and only one nut flush draw, maybe, out of position. I definetely call, but when facing a raise with 4 to act behind me . . .

[wazz]

It's f*cking stupid to limp-fold to one bet with stacks that size.

People who bet don't always have AA.

AKJ3 double-suited is strong enough to play from any position.

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]

AKJ3 double-suited is strong enough to play from any position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree - I would definitely limp and call any raise &lt;20% my stack with AKJ3 ds; however it's pretty rare to get something doublesuited.

More common hands:

AKJ3 single suited I would start to consider throwing away UTG in certain games where there are frequent multiple raises preflop.
And AKJ3 with a three flush, I'd throw away for sure UTG.

[glass_onion]

appreciate the clarification. I'll loosen up. It was just the combo of likely AA, UTG, 4 people remaining . . . Glad to know single suited you'd consider throwing it. I have to imagine that's the best play, long term.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
It's still +EV to stick it in on the turn, but probably less so. Hopefully Silent A or one of the other mathematicians will run the numbers for us...hint

[/ QUOTE ]

A challenge!

This is kinds tough since it all depends on BB's holdings.

OK, the following cards give you the unsplitable nuts on the river (you block all potential opponent straight flushes):

(2 4 6 7 8 T J) clubs
(2 3 4 6 7 8 T K) hearts

The following give you the nut straight (splitable)

Td Ts

After his check raise, it's 133 to you, the pot has 269 and you have 326 in your stack. If you push, the pot will be 595 and it'll cost him 197 to call.

Assumptions about villain:

1) he will call down with any set
2) he will only fold a turn push if he's on a complete bluff
3) if he doesn't have a set, and isn't bluffing, assume he has AdKhJdTh and has 5 real outs, 2 straight splitters, 3 losing striaght draws and 7 losing flush draws. If you just call, assume he will set you in on any river card except a club that doesn't pair the board.

4) for simplification, I'll ignore the possability that he has a hand lik top 2 pair.

If he has a set and you push on the turn, your EV is:

(17/42)*(269+326) - (25/42)*(326) = +47

if he has a set and you call and push when you hit, your EV is:

(17/42)*(269+326) - (25/42)*(133) = +162

if he's on a bluff and folds to a turn push your EV is:

= +269

If he's on a bluff, and you call, he will lead any paired board, non-flush, or non-broadway straights.

19 cards he check folds
21 cards he leads and you fold

EV = (19/40)*269 - 19/40*(133) = +65


If he's on a draw and you push, your EV is:

= 0.662*989 - 326 = +329

If he's on a draw and you call, and he leads any river that misses all draws, and you fold when you miss your flush/straight, plus you fold if the bord pairs, your EV is:

2 cards you'll call and split
7 cards he check folds
6 cards he leads and loses
25 cards he leads and you fold

EV = (2/40)*(495-326) + (7/40)*(269) +(6/40)*(269+326) - (25/40)*(133) = +62

let B = probability he's bluffing
let D = probability he's on a big draw

the prob he has a set = 1 - B - D

EV of a call:

= 65B + 62D + 162(1-B-D) = 162 - 103B - 100D

EV of a push:

= 269B + 329D + 47(1-B-D) = 47 + 222B + 282D

if B = 0.1 (for argument's sake) the two eV's are equal if ...

162 - 10.3 - 100D = 47 + 22.2 + 282D

D = 0.216 (i.e. has a set 68% of the time)

If he never bluffs, then the 2 are equal if ...

D = 0.301 (i.e. has a set 70% of the time)

Because the draw and bluff numbers are pretty similar, the key result is:

So long as villain has a set 70% of the time or more, you are better off calling.