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#12
07-31-2006, 04:57 PM
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Re: SB Special Play Along
[ QUOTE ]
I know preflop is questionable, however, nobody ever folds the SB in an unraised pot. I've done so before and ppl start calling me tight and stuff. Plus I'm getting 13:1. Flop 4 5 7 I lead for $15, folds to villain who raises to $45, Hero? [/ QUOTE ] I think it's not the odds, 13:1, so much as the reverse implied odds of hitting a hand like 2-pair and getting stacked that makes folding the better part of valor preflop. If they think you're tight, that's great. Raise more often preflop with hands like 67s then cb to steal a lot of small pots as long as they continue to think your too tight. In the hand in question, I think folding is best, but I'm not sure I'd fold if I was actually sitting at the table. Pretty sure you're not winning, though.. Villain could have hands like 6x8x straight, suited diamond connectors like 8d 9d for GSSD+FD, a plain old FD like JdKd, 57 two-pair, sets, 66 for pair+OES, and a mid-sized overpair like 99. Against that range, you're probably better off pushing to protect your hand from the draws. But I HATE going broke from the blinds, so I'd probably fold and kick myself for completing in the first place. 
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#13
07-31-2006, 04:59 PM
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Re: SB Special Play Along
My first note about this hand is you can't let other players determine your play... if you start playing the way they want you to play, then most likely you are playing right into their hands... if you want to fold 74o in the SB, just do it. I wouldn't, but I'm a pretty loose NL player, especially in the blinds. In any case, play your game, not the game everyone wants you to play.
If he's tight/bad aggressive, which a LOT of 1/2 players seem to be these days, I'd definitely put him on a pocket pair on the flop. Of course, most of the bad aggressive players generally raise preflop with their pocket pair, then make huge postflop bets regardless of the flop (one exception is when they hit their set, then they go IMMEDIATELY to trap mode, LOL). If he is one of these, my top guess would be that he has 66, less likely is 88, 99, TT. If he isn't tight, but average, he could be sitting with a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or smaller flush cards and open ended straight draw. I can't put him on a set if he is a typical player who traps EVERY time with a big hand. Whatever his hand, I believe I'm ahead on the flop (the only hands I could put him on that I'm behind are 44, 55, 77, or 86s. If he has an overpair, flush draw, or open ender, I don't want him drawing out on me. So, on the flop there is $15 in the pot ($16 - $1 rake), and you bet the pot... he comes over the top of you for $45. The pot stands at $75. If you win it right here, you have over $50 of profit playing 74o. Sounds good to me. If you try to drag it out, you are probably up against a good draw. So, at this time you have to either put him on a set or the less likely straight and fold, or put him on a draw and try to push him out. As I said, from your description as a tight player, I put him on a pocket pair, probably 66. Will he call an allin with a draw? Also, will he call your allin when you represent a straight with any draw? You MAY even push him off a set if he did have it. But, you are getting your money in with the best of it most of the time. If he folds, $58 is a nice win with 74o, and you don't have to worry about getting drawn out on. So, I go allin. I think the board is far too coordinated (straight and flush draws) to play around in, and an overpair is drawing to 5 outs on the turn and probably 8 outs on the river to beat you. He COULD have top pair with a good kicker, like A7s... but if he's a tight player as you describe he may not be playing that, as a typical player would. The turn and river play themselves if you are allin, obviously. Now, after you've called the turn raise and the 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits, I push allin after he bets $50. There's over $150 in the pot and you have $175 left. He has to call $125 to draw. The only hand the 10 helped is pocket tens, which I don't believe he has. He has to pay to draw. On the river, if you just called his turn bet, you only have about $125 left. The pot is $200 plus his allin, making it $325 and you have to call $125. The eight makes a few draws, including any 6 and pocket 8s, but doesn't help some other hands he could have had. Unfortunately, I think you are beat on the river by pocket 6s, but you are getting 5:2 or so on a call, and considering the possible hands he has, those are about the right odds to call. You really can't fold in that big pot with two pair and find out he had 99 or JJ or missed his flush draw. I think this hand is a great example of the importance of aggression. On one hand, our hero played two pair pretty meekly, letting the villain get a chance to draw or steal the pot. On the other hand, the villain continued to pound at the pot and put our hero to the test.
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#14
07-31-2006, 05:00 PM
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Re: SB Special Play Along
66 just made a straight and 88 made a set. Otherwise, you still beat 99 or A7, but lose to everything else. Looks a lot like he's beating your 2-pair, so I'd fold. The board is uber-coordinated and he's going to the felt with his hand. I think he's got more of this than you do.
EDIT: [ QUOTE ] Unfortunately, I think you are beat on the river by pocket 6s, but you are getting 5:2 or so on a call, and considering the possible hands he has, those are about the right odds to call. You really can't fold in that big pot with two pair and find out he had 99 or JJ or missed his flush draw. [/ QUOTE ] You know, I think the pot odds are now, in fact, too much to pass up. So I was wrong about folding. Hero's dug his grave by calling the turn and is now committed to seeing it through for the reasongs in the quote, above. [ QUOTE ] TT hit a set on the turn, beating hero's two pair. [/ QUOTE ] oops. Edited above post.
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#15
07-31-2006, 05:04 PM
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Re: SB Special Play Along
[ QUOTE ]
66 just made a straight and 88 made a set. Otherwise, you still beat 99 or TT or A7, but lose to everything else. Looks a lot like he's beating your 2-pair, so I'd fold. The board is uber-coordinated and he's going to the felt with his hand. I think he's got more of this than you do. [/ QUOTE ] TT hit a set on the turn, beating hero's two pair.
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#16
07-31-2006, 05:14 PM
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Re: SB Special Play Along
Thats great analysis. First off - my comment about SB. Its not so much letting other players influence my play. Its more I don't want to appear to be a big nit. Appearing friendly and willing to gambool makes ppl "happily" pay you off sometimes.
I agree I botched the hand, most likely on the turn but lets discuss street by street. 1) Flop: You're probably right a reraise is in order as I realize live NL there is much less need to pot control OOP (lot more value bet opportunities). However, are we really pushing here? Sure I win $58 but I'm putting in about $200 as an overbet? I'm only going to be called if I'm toast... imo 2) Turn: Because he is aggro, I think a C/R allin rather than an immediate push would extract the most value yes? I still can't figure out which line is better, 3 bet flop to say $115 total and push turn or call flop and c/r all in. 3) River: Can I fold this based on pot odds? I know I'm likely beat but am I good almost 1 in 3 times here? Thanks again - I appreciate your detailed explanation. And yes villain had 66. [ QUOTE ] My first note about this hand is you can't let other players determine your play If he folds, $58 is a nice win with 74o, and you don't have to worry about getting drawn out on. So, I go allin. I think the board is far too coordinated (straight and flush draws) to play around in, and an overpair is drawing to 5 outs on the turn and probably 8 outs on the river to beat you. He COULD have top pair with a good kicker, like A7s... but if he's a tight player as you describe he may not be playing that, as a typical player would. The turn and river play themselves if you are allin, obviously. Now, after you've called the turn raise and the 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hits, I push allin after he bets $50. There's over $150 in the pot and you have $175 left. He has to call $125 to draw. The only hand the 10 helped is pocket tens, which I don't believe he has. He has to pay to draw. On the river, if you just called his turn bet, you only have about $125 left. The pot is $200 plus his allin, making it $325 and you have to call $125. The eight makes a few draws, including any 6 and pocket 8s, but doesn't help some other hands he could have had. Unfortunately, I think you are beat on the river by pocket 6s, but you are getting 5:2 or so on a call, and considering the possible hands he has, those are about the right odds to call. You really can't fold in that big pot with two pair and find out he had 99 or JJ or missed his flush draw. I think this hand is a great example of the importance of aggression. On one hand, our hero played two pair pretty meekly, letting the villain get a chance to draw or steal the pot. On the other hand, the villain continued to pound at the pot and put our hero to the test. [/ QUOTE ]
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