Does he really have me beat?

[Albert Moulton]

Well, villain has
a set (9 combinations of sets),
two-pair (9 cominations each of three 2-pair hands = 27 combinations),
a straight (16 combinations of 7x9x, and I won't count 4x7x since that would certainly limp/fold pf),

77 for a pair + OESD (3 combinations),
9h Th for FD+GSSD (1 combination),
Ah 6h for pair + FD (1 combination),
AhKh/AhQh/AhJh/AhTh for a limp/call overcards + FD (4 combinations, although some of these hands would usually raise pf)
and 99 (6 combinations).

Bigger overpairs, like TT, would have raised pf, not limp/called, so I'm not counting those.

So if that's the range, you are WAY behind 52 combinations and you are ahead of 15 combinations, most of which have pretty good draws that reduce your advantage quite a bit. Only 99 has virtually no chance of beating you. Ah Th, for example, has a really good draw in which you are almost in a coin flip.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 431 43.54 550 55.56 9 0.91 0.440
Ks Kh 550 55.56 431 43.54 9 0.91 0.560

So, if the range is right, and you have no read that this guy regularly pushes with very little, then this is an easy fold.

I did the combinations pretty quick, so feel free to correct the combination counts and hand ranges. I still think this is a fold.

[Kyriefurro]

Ok...so I guess it's pretty close then. Reasons to fold and reasons to call and an almost perfect balance betwee them.

One thing I should have kept in mind is this. If I fold and he has me beat then I save most of a buy-in. If I fold and he's doing this with a draw or some stupid 8x hand, then I'll get his money later. Either way I win [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Unfortunately, I didn't really think that way when the hand played out. I said, "WTF?? NO ONE plays a set/straight like that!" And then I clicked the call button.

Villain showed 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and the chips went the wrong direction.

On the plus side, I would eventually learn that villain was enamoured of all-in bets. He open pushed any two-pair or better hand, and he open-pushed preflop with QQ+. I was able to use this useful bit of information to get a full refund from him later that night [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[bruin]

I would call. Your opponent is probably dumb and could easily be pushing a draw or some weird one pair hand here.