two hands from today's $1500 NLH at WSOP

[fro_dude]

If you're seeing the dead money in the pot, someone else sure will too...especially with your money in there now as well. This is the perfect play...if it works...but also a pretty regretable way to exit the WSOP.

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're seeing the dead money in the pot, someone else sure will too...especially with your money in there now as well. This is the perfect play...if it works...but also a pretty regretable way to exit the WSOP.

[/ QUOTE ]
Aren't all plays the perfect plays if they work? I don't care about looking stupid.

[fro_dude]

True...but in a sense folding is the perfect play...and that will work every time.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
True...but in a sense folding is the perfect play...and that will work every time.

[/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I won the 1999 WSOP by folding for three straight days. It's harder to do that now, however, with the fields as big as they are. But if you just jam with AA and KK, and fold everything else, you'll usually make the final table.

[eBo]

Noel Furlong?

I looked it up

[0evg0]

[censored] yeah. I know my game is progressing when I read Hand 1 and said to myself that "kid just f'ed up if he open-pushed." Check the flop and fold to a bet/call, shove a check/bet or bet/fold.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
3rd level, 50/100. I just got moved to this table; I've been up and down all day.

Hand 1: I just took the blinds uncontested. Now I have ~1500 and am UTG+1 and see QQ. I make it 275 (standard so far at this table as far as I can tell.) M/LP calls and the button (young kid) calls. They both cover me.
The flop is KT6 (maybe not 6) with two diamonds. I have ~1200 left and the pot is 975. This is a push, right? If it's not, what is it?

Hand 2:

A few hands later. I have 1200 after posting my small blind. Same button from last hand (who has revealed himself to be rather aggressive) opens to 300. Bill Gazes two to his left calls. Cutoff calls. Button calls. I have 87o in small blind and everyone has me covered. Is a push profitable here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand one: Generally I would check/push here but I would just push if I thought there was a significant chance that it's going to be checked round. I assume that's unlikely though.

Hand 2: I imagine a push is profitable here. There's more money in the pot than there is in your stack so you are almost always getting a call but the move makes life very awkward for all of the villains, torn between great odds for calling, and a small charge, and the action behind. You pulled the same stunt, with the same hand, in what appeared to be a less favourable spot, in a tournie win that you posted recently to get your stack off the ground.

[uclabruinz]

Hand 1: I think you want to give yourself an opportunity to get a read here by checking and observing. You're not going to fold out any better hands by jamming. Yes, you make a "mistake" in the rare event it gets checked through, but that is not nearly as disastrous as jamming and getting called with 2 outs.

Hand 2: I don't like the chance of getting looked up by two or more callers and I don't like the chance of one of them having 99-JJ. Tempting, but I think we can find better spots, but I would be happy to be proven wrong by the math.

[allenciox]

I am kind of surprised there is anybody saying that hand #1 is anything but a check. The reason is that there are no hands you beat that are going to call your flop bet --- and there are no hands that beat you that aren't going to call your flop bet. The ONLY thing that betting in first position buys you is that it stops it from being checked around to get a free card on the turn. However, what is the likelihood that one of these other players is on a flush or a straight draw, that their draw will hit on the turn, and that they won't take a stab on the flop? Pretty small. The only overcard you are worried about on the turn is the Ace.

As others would say, check and evaluate. If MP checks and the aggressive button bets, raise him all-in. If it is checked around, make your stab on the turn (it is unlikely they are going to check a King on this board). Obviously, if both players bet, you can safely fold. On other options, use reads and bet amounts to determine what they might have. Notice how much better this is than just sticking your money in on the flop.

I actually kind of like the raise all-in on hand 2. Yes it is likely somebody will call you with a better hand, but it is unlikely to dominate you. You need to make a move sometime to accumulate chips to keep you in contention, now seems like a perfect time.

[allenciox]

I thought I would run some numbers for hand 2. By going all-in you are wagering 1200 to win 1300 if no players call you, 2300 if you are called by one player, and 3300 if you are called by two players. I assume that really good hands would have reraised instead of calling, but only decent hands would make your call, so I leave out the "best" hands and only include reasonable calling hands for the rest.

One player calling: (34% equity required for breakeven here)

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.4133 % 32.92% 00.49% { 87o }
Hand 2: 66.5867 % 66.10% 00.49% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }


Equity if called in two places by same range (27% or better required in this case to break even):
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 23.7519 % 23.48% 00.28% { 87o }
Hand 2: 38.1201 % 36.23% 01.90% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }
Hand 3: 38.1280 % 36.23% 01.90% { TT-66, AQs-A9s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }

If you assume that there is a 15% or greater chance of everyone folding, then the all-in is almost always profitable. If, on the other hand, you think there is a near-zero chance that everyone will fold and a substantial chance that at least two players will call your all-in, then the raise all-in is EV-.