JJ flops a set, 3 flush board 100nl 6m

[DWarrior]

The pot on the flop is ~$12.50 after the rake, so it was a 3/4 pot bet. May still be weak, but not as weak it appears to you guys.

[WrMattyG]

I like the way you played it !.

3 betting the flop all in would work as well, but I think you get more value the way it was played.

[younghov17]

im raisinf lop now because our hand is vulnerable but veyr likely to be best, and if he doesnt have a diamond a 4th diamond could kill our action as even to a maniac that board sucks. with adqx id play it the same way half the time, the other half taking a more passive line because im not AS worried about a free card killing me or my action

[BalugaWhale]

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3 bet flop. as played raise turn all in

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Man... I can't believe i'm agreeing with younghov

good work son

[goofyballer]

Pot is $70 on turn after villain's bet. Let's assume hero shoves and takes it down 100% of the time; EV of shoving = $70.

If we just call, let's assume villain shoves 100% of rivers (probably a +EV bluff from his POV, given that he has $65 left in a $90 pot), and that we're always ahead when we call a non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river and fold on a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

EV is (9/46) * -20 + (37/46) * 135 = $104

So, if villain shoves any river, EV of calling turn to let him bluff is $34 higher than shoving and taking the pot on the turn.

You might argue that we won't always be ahead on the river; however, villain certainly calls the turn push with hands that beat us anyway, and there are very few hands (besides diamond draws) that can possibly outdraw us on the river that are behind on the turn.

Also, villain won't always shove the river. Let's adjust, and call X the % of the time villain shoves river:

(9/46) * -20 + (37/46) * ( (1-x) * 70 + x * 135)

So, now we solve for X by setting the equation equal to 70 to find out what %age of the time villain has to shove river for calling turn to be the same EV as shoving and taking the pot down.

(9/46) * -20 + (37/46) * ( (1-x) * 70 + x * 135) = 70
-4 + (37/46) * (70 - 70x + 135x) = 70
(37/46) * (65x + 70) = 74
52x + 56 = 74
52x = 18
x = 18/52 = 35%

So, if villain only shoves a non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river 1/3 of the time, we make the same profit as shoving turn. And remember, he's PSYCHO!!

Now, can somebody please tell me why I'm wrong, since apparently everybody in this thread disagrees with me?

[Dan Bitel]

goofy,

the biggest mistake you are making here is that you think villain will fold to our shove 100% of the time.

I don't have time now, but try rinning the calcs again, but assume he calls turn shove 40% of the time (you can play around with that number if you like) and when he does, he has on average 15% equity (again, feel free to change this number too, but you got to say why)

Then work out how often villain has to shove river

[younghov17]

villian isnt folding anywhere near 100%. its borderline insane to think villian folds to a turn shove but shoves river himself.

[goofyballer]

I'm pretty horrible at calculating ranges, but what do you think villain will call a turn shove with? 40% seems pretty heavy.

My general experience with these kinds of players is that they go nuts on monotone flops because they think it's easy to push someone off a hand on boards like this. He could easily have some totally raggy hand that he'll bluff with, but instafold to a shove.

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villian isnt folding anywhere near 100%. its borderline insane to think villian folds to a turn shove but shoves river himself.

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Hero's underrepresented his hand the whole way and our PSYCHO villain could easily think he can be pushed off his hand on the river. I agree villain doesn't fold 100% of the time (I don't know of any clean way to estimate what % of the time he will call), but I think it's equally insane to say that villain calls a shove as often or more often than he shoves river himself.

[younghov17]

i think he calls with ad kd or 10d here, not to mention some 1 pair and 2 pair hands. id say 40% is pretty close to the ammt of times hed call

[Dan Bitel]

goofy,

He has a few flushes, a few lower sets/2pairs. But most the time he just has a naked flush draw/pair and FD type hand. He seems to be a bad player and bad players don't fold hands that have outs. Seeing as he raised preflop, I think he can have the Ad a lot here, and maybe even AK with a diamond

Also, you seem to be presuming he's a maniac. Yeah, he [censored] loose, but we haven't been told he bluffs uncontrolably the whole time or anything like that. He could very well have a hand he is willing to put money in with here as a dog, but nothing else in on river. I think he shoves river as a bluff, like 25% at most