JJ flops a set, 3 flush board 100nl 6m

[DWarrior]

Party is so rigged.

74/45/3.9 Villain
a hand ago he c/mr me with mid-paor 5 on a 3-flush board, then checked it down. Looks like a fishy maniac overall.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button ($127.90)
SB ($102.15)
BB ($100.15)
UTG ($108.69)
Hero ($159.92)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($13.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $9</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $18</font>, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($49.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $20</font>, Hero?

My standard play here would be to call and pray that river pairs, if not I call a reasonal bet or check behind.

WrMattyG was sweating me though and he recommended a push to not give pairs+FDs a chance to hit. Also if villain has something like a worse set or 2-pair, I probably stack. Also if board doesn't pair, the pot will be big enough so that I'll be getting more than 2:1 even if villain pushes, so I probably get stacked or near stacked anyway.

Strong broke push, or weak tight call?

[goofyballer]

I'm gonna continue my spewage of FPS advice around the forum and recommend a weak-tight call, but not because you think you're behind.

First, I think you almost certainly have the best hand right now. Second, villain probably folds to a shove, because he's probably FOS. So how do you make the most money in this situation?

Let your timer run down a little and call. Villain thinks you're weak. 1/5 of the time, there's a diamond on the river and villain probably bets hard, and you give it up. The other 4/5 of the time, villain probably bets really hard again, thinking that you made a crying call on the turn with a vulnerable hand. Then you pwn him with your set.

I think the odds of villain having a good enough hand to go deep with on the turn (lower set/two pair) is pretty small. He's psycho, just look at him.

SHIP IT

[younghov17]

3 bet flop. as played raise turn all in

[avfletch]

Personally I would raise a little bit more preflop and then pot the flop. This makes our push over his c/mr a bit less of an overbet (if I've added it up right pushing on the flop atm is twice the pot, not unreasonable but maybe a bit much).

That said, if I have AdQ here then potting flop and pushing reduces the fold equity and it would be reasonable to think we should be playing these the same way.

I definitely don't like calling and hoping the board pairs. You've even said yourself that he has c/mr you with a rubbish pair on a 3-flush board. That, combined with his preflop stats, make his range pretty large here.

[younghov17]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally I would raise a little bit more preflop and then pot the flop. This makes our push over his c/mr a bit less of an overbet (if I've added it up right pushing on the flop atm is twice the pot, not unreasonable but maybe a bit much).

That said, if I have AdQ here then potting flop and pushing reduces the fold equity and it would be reasonable to think we should be playing these the same way.

I definitely don't like calling and hoping the board pairs. You've even said yourself that he has c/mr you with a rubbish pair on a 3-flush board. That, combined with his preflop stats, make his range pretty large here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldnt 3bet the flop all in, id just jack it up to where turn is an insta all in.

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Personally I would raise a little bit more preflop and then pot the flop. This makes our push over his c/mr a bit less of an overbet (if I've added it up right pushing on the flop atm is twice the pot, not unreasonable but maybe a bit much).

That said, if I have AdQ here then potting flop and pushing reduces the fold equity and it would be reasonable to think we should be playing these the same way.

I definitely don't like calling and hoping the board pairs. You've even said yourself that he has c/mr you with a rubbish pair on a 3-flush board. That, combined with his preflop stats, make his range pretty large here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i wouldnt 3bet the flop all in, id just jack it up to where turn is an insta all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that based on the action as is or would you be taking the same line overall? I'm especially interested in people's choices of bet size on the flop for this hand and how that would change if hero had AdQ.

[AtTheMovies]

i guess im just repeating the others but definitely raise a little more preflop (to $10 maybe?), pot flop, all-in turn

[goofyballer]

[ QUOTE ]
Second, villain probably folds to a shove, because he's probably FOS.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to bed, and when I wake up in ~9 hours, I want someone to have addressed that. What hands do you turn-shovers put villain on that he wants to pay us off with? This dude is PSYCHO!

[avfletch]

[ QUOTE ]
i guess im just repeating the others but definitely raise a little more preflop (to $10 maybe?), pot flop, all-in turn

[/ QUOTE ]

So you flat call the c/mr on the flop and push the turn? Why do you think this is a better line than a reraise/push on the flop?

[cheiro]

Flop bet is weak. Preflop I may bump up another BB to $7. On the flop I'd put in $12+, and 3-bet the minraise all day.