Passive AA bellagio 1-2

[bxpeter]

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I think you're ahead a high % of the time on the flop. IMO, a nitty player who is stuck a little bit is liable to slowplay a flopped boat until the turn given this action, as well as probably AQ, which is slightly unlikely given the cards that are out (and MIGHT not 3-bet preflop). So it's tempting to 4-bet and continue to lead. That said, if there's some chance that she'll lay down a hand like AK or TT to a 4-bet, perhaps calling is right.

In any event, I think the clearest mistakes in this hand are preflop, and on the river, where you should have raised her bet.

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I did think there was a good enough chance I was ahead on the flop, but I thought 4-betting would definitely shut out the TT/99 type of hands.

Checkraising the river sounds like a decent play since I have a supereasy fold to a 3-bet, but what losing hands will call me? AK seems like the ONLY hand that will call a checkraise, and I didn't mention it earlier, but I don't think she 3-bets AK on this flop (though it is possible...) I really don't know if AJ will make a crying call here. If so, then I will agree that checkraising is the way to go, assuming she will even bet AJ in the first place.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

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I think you're ahead a high % of the time on the flop. IMO, a nitty player who is stuck a little bit is liable to slowplay a flopped boat until the turn given this action, as well as probably AQ, which is slightly unlikely given the cards that are out (and MIGHT not 3-bet preflop). So it's tempting to 4-bet and continue to lead. That said, if there's some chance that she'll lay down a hand like AK or TT to a 4-bet, perhaps calling is right.

In any event, I think the clearest mistakes in this hand are preflop, and on the river, where you should have raised her bet.

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I did think there was a good enough chance I was ahead on the flop, but I thought 4-betting would definitely shut out the TT/99 type of hands.

Checkraising the river sounds like a decent play since I have a supereasy fold to a 3-bet, but what losing hands will call me? AK seems like the ONLY hand that will call a checkraise, and I didn't mention it earlier, but I don't think she 3-bets AK on this flop (though it is possible...) I really don't know if AJ will make a crying call here. If so, then I will agree that checkraising is the way to go, assuming she will even bet AJ in the first place.

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It's hard to put her on a hand, period.

AJ is probably the hand that is most consistent with her postflop play. But, I had discounted that possibility a lot based on the preflop play, and given your description of her. If she can 3-bet AJo in that spot preflop then I definitely think your preflop play becomes even more of a mistake.

[bxpeter]

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What about getting a call from AJ?

I am not sure how we can induce a bluff or a thin value bet from her by checking. She 3 bet before the flop which mostly signifies big ace or pocket pair. With those hands, I think she checks the river nearly all the time if we check. If we bet, then IMO she will call with TT or AJ often enough to make the bet worthwhile.

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I would expect AJ to bet the river thinking that I have AK or TT.
The more I think about it, I don't really like this hand now. I play some hands like this, but I cap a lot of hands preflop. To give up the small bet preflop and then also give up some bets by playing passively postflop seems like a bad combination.

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I agree, playing passively preflop to induce postflop action and then playing passively postflop also is a bad combination. However, I am looking to induce action on more ragged flops. I still need to tread carefully here since there are so few hands I am ahead of that can stand more action.

I agree with almost everything else thats been said in this thread so far. I think betting the river is better than checking the river. However, I think the best play might be to bet out on the turn, call down if raised and bet the river if called. Thoughts on that?

[flawless_victory]

CHECKRAISE the river, AK no good dog.

[ALL1N]

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What about getting a call from AJ?

I am not sure how we can induce a bluff or a thin value bet from her by checking. She 3 bet before the flop which mostly signifies big ace or pocket pair. With those hands, I think she checks the river nearly all the time if we check. If we bet, then IMO she will call with TT or AJ often enough to make the bet worthwhile.

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Why do you think a "solid" player calls a river bet with TT?? It beats nothing.

[skp]

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Why do you think a "solid" player calls a river bet with TT?? It beats nothing.


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Because I see these types of calls happen about half a dozen times every hour.

Seriously.

[ALL1N]

Ok. I guess either I'm overestimating "solid" [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]