Intersting hand that I liked, 1/2 FR

[bags]

[ QUOTE ]
Using the odds from http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php:

odds of flopping a flush holding 2 suited: .84%
flush draw: 10.9%
straight holding 2 connected: 1%
oesd: 6%
2 pair: 2%
trips: 1.35%
boat+: .1%

== 22.19%



[/ QUOTE ]It is entirely possible that I am wrong, but are you able to just sum the %'s in this case? Isn't there some overlap that you have to factor in that would make this incorrect?

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
My understanding -- and I don't claim it can't be flawed -- is that you raise with a good MW hand from LP when you have limpers because you want the pot to be big enough to entice them to come along with you when you flop your draw

[/ QUOTE ]

This is micros; they're going to come along with crappy draws anyway.

The key to raising preflop with good MW hands is equity edge, as aaron has pointed out.

[ QUOTE ]

With 66, you do not want them to come anywhere with you. If you hit the set, you want them to pay you off but if you don't, you want the pot to be small enough to shake off weak draws.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. When you play 66 in a multiway pot, you are playing it purely for set value. When you hit your set, you do want everyone to come along, but that's still not the point of the preflop raise.

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
tyler-

I think raising 66 here would be fine too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh oh... i'm screwed if buck is on my side! (j/k buck [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

Buck, how do you square this belief with the doubled implied odds problem?

[tyler_cracker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Using the odds from http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php:

odds of flopping a flush holding 2 suited: .84%
flush draw: 10.9%
straight holding 2 connected: 1%
oesd: 6%
2 pair: 2%
trips: 1.35%
boat+: .1%

== 22.19%



[/ QUOTE ]It is entirely possible that I am wrong, but are you able to just sum the %'s in this case? Isn't there some overlap that you have to factor in that would make this incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

Trips and boat+ are all listed as separate entities on the odds site, so i think they've already accounted for overlap there.

You are correct that there is some overlap between the flush (draw) and straight (draw) cases, but the effect should be rather small, and this example is still illustrative, even if it's not 100% accurate.

[Buckmulligan]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh oh... i'm screwed if buck is on my side! (j/k buck ).

Buck, how do you square this belief with the doubled implied odds problem?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, assuming none of the blinds call a raise, and they very well may, the raise itself is only barely -EV. Now factor in what we gain by often earning a four card flop when we check through the missed ones, and the fact that we have then built a pot that will will a lot of bets when one of those four cards hit.

The same deal is really true with JTs. IMO, it's the beauty of the button that makes a raise with JTs there a nice option preflop; because we might get the turn card for free.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Using the odds from http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php:

odds of flopping a flush holding 2 suited: .84%
flush draw: 10.9%
straight holding 2 connected: 1%
oesd: 6%
2 pair: 2%
trips: 1.35%
boat+: .1%

== 22.19%



[/ QUOTE ]It is entirely possible that I am wrong, but are you able to just sum the %'s in this case? Isn't there some overlap that you have to factor in that would make this incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

Odds of flopping an OESD:

You have J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

One OESD would be a flop of 98x (x isn't a 7 or a Q)

p = 4*4*40*6 / 50*49*48 = .0327

Now you start discounting...

An all flush flop isn't good and a flop that gives us a flush draw doesn't count as an OESD. There are *roughly* 64 ways to deal the suits on the flop. Four of them are all of one suit, 24 are rainbow and 36 are two tone. That means that you have to discount all OESDs by about 20% as 13 of the possible boards will either create overlap with a flush/flush draw or will result in an unfavorable flop.

So 80% * .0327 = 2.6% of hitting a specific OESD

J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] can hit 3 different OESDs (98x, Q9x and KQx) so the odds of flopping an OESD is about 7.8% and not the 6% that is quoted. Note that sometimes the OESD will come with either a paired board or with a card that pairs your hand.