66 hand

[Xorbid]

Looks great. Let's even assume a near worse case scenario:

AKd (1) + AJd/others (discounted 95% to 0.05) = 1.05

QQ (discounted 80% to 0.6) + KK/AA (discounted 95% to 0.6) +
other random hands like 77/88 (discounted 99% to 0.1) = 1.3

Still a 10%+ edge, cap it up.

[27offsooot]

For those saying to call the river three bet, put yourself in his shoes. What could my hand be and what couldn't it be and then how does that fare against a set (QQ obviously is in his range, 88/ 77 would have to be very severely discounted). Approximately how many combinations of sets are there then? Then, how many combinations of AKd (and AJd, which also has to be very much discounted) are there?

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks great. Let's even assume a near worse case scenario:

AKd (1) + AJd/others (discounted 95% to 0.05) = 1.05

QQ (discounted 80% to 0.6) + KK/AA (discounted 95% to 0.6) +
other random hands like 77/88 (discounted 99% to 0.1) = 1.3

Still a 10%+ edge, cap it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would discount AA/ KK to pretty much 0, and I would give a little more weight to 77/88. I can't imagine any sane player three betting me with a pair there. I like your thought though.

Edit - I guess discounting AA/ KK to 5% is fine after some more thought - a good deal of 3/6 TAGs suck and my hand has to be confusing as hell.

[27offsooot]

OK, so I'm really surprised most people thought capping was bad. Even basic hand readers will know that I never have a flush on the river. So what hand could I possibly have that a set doesn't beat? I three bet PF, how many hands with a 6 does that contain?

I think QQ three bets this river close to 100% of the time, and there are three combos of QQ and one combo of AKd. There is also the possibility of 88/77, but I will go ahead and say that these have the same frequency and will three bet the river with the same frequency as AJd (which I think is being generous), or whatever to make the only real combos QQ/ AKd. So, there is one effective combo of AKd and three combos of QQ, so not capping the river is a solid .5 BB mistake. I could buy a beer with that. Well, at least a domestic.

I think the turn is closer, but I have the button, so I can ensure that I put in one bet or zero bets if a fourth diamond hits. Also, my straight is concealed, and I have the 6d, so my set outs are very live. I think there are def. positive implied odds with this call because of my position.

Flop should be standard. Thought I might get some raise the flop people, but glad i didn't.

I think PF is actually a fold. It turned out that UTG was a little more passive than 15 PFR after more hands. But it's not that big of a deal. I knew it was marginal either way with the 15 PFR, but something about my feel at the table at the time led to the three bet.

Anyway, villain had QQ, and I'll be drinking another Coors light tonight.

[Nick C]

The turn call seems fine to me, and so does the river cap.