Why not pass up 55/45 edges?

[Sykes]

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both concepts can be done at once [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

you can play small pot poker but at same time take 55/45's when they are useable. hellmuth said he would pass up a 80/20 early i think, but he sucks.

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Interestingly, isn't it written somewhere that in a big tourney like the WSOP ME you should fold AA if facing an all in since you can make up that edge with your skill later?

Yeah, Matt Matros cock-slapped that little piece of advice in the face didn't he?

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WTF?

If I have AA, my chips are in there no matter what (no matter how many people are going in, no matter what my stack size, no matter how deep I am). Having AA and JJ are 2 WAY different things.

[Sykes]

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Clayton: Hellmuth said he once folded knowing he was a 4 to 1 dog, but that's terrible. Also said he'd fold KK to Ax, also terrible. But he has had strong results in the past and present and IMO, one of the top tournament players in NLHE.

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I suppose Hellmuth's play seems to show the merits of lowering your variance early in these things. Then again, he plays mainly super-deep, super-slow tournaments where the blind pressure lets him wait for chips. Plus his reputation alone probably wins him a fair amount of undue pots throughout these things. He always rambles about never being all-in so I guess his strategy of preservation works.

Plus he ran good at some point which probably made him think he was the super-god of tournaments and could make ridiculously moronic laydowns for fun.

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http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/play...?a=r&n=117

Running good/playing poker professionally for the last 17 years sounds good.

Although you could say; What has he done lately?

[tubasteve]

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tuba, you're right, "theoretically" you should have a BR of 10M to play in the WSOP. However, there is maybe 20 people or less in the WSOP that have 10M$ in the bank. The lure of making a $1+Million score and altering your life is the attraction to the event. The very fact that you can LITERALLY qualify for the WSOP FOR FREE makes this tournament so elusive for mediocre players.

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Haha, that's exactly why I used "theoretically". And $10,000 * 100 = $1,000,000 which isn't really that much money for even lesser known high stakes Vegas pros, and there are probably a good amount of rich fish that buy in direct that are worth multiple millions.

Here's another thought on that topic (hijack alert): Say we can quantify our edge in sats so we can, on average, win 1 of every 7 10 person single-table winner take all sats. Does this mean our bankroll only needs to be $7k x 100 to play in $10k buyin events?

[Sykes]

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tuba, you're right, "theoretically" you should have a BR of 10M to play in the WSOP. However, there is maybe 20 people or less in the WSOP that have 10M$ in the bank. The lure of making a $1+Million score and altering your life is the attraction to the event. The very fact that you can LITERALLY qualify for the WSOP FOR FREE makes this tournament so elusive for mediocre players.

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Haha, that's exactly why I used "theoretically". And $10,000 * 100 = $1,000,000 which isn't really that much money for even lesser known high stakes Vegas pros, and there are probably a good amount of rich fish that buy in direct that are worth multiple millions.

Here's another thought on that topic (hijack alert): Say we can quantify our edge in sats so we can, on average, win 1 of every 7 10 person single-table winner take all sats. Does this mean our bankroll only needs to be $7k x 100 to play in $10k buyin events?

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I do math well [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Ok, $1M to play 100WSOP ME. How many people do you think have this amount in the ME? 1000? 500? 250? 100? I would have to guess anywhere from 250-500.

Second question.. I guess that makes sense in a weird sort of way. But the difference is there that:

A. It's a SNG
B. It's winner take all.
C. You're up against 10 players instead of 5,000.

So because of A. and C. your variance is going to be way lower than a MTT, but since it's also B. I would say you're going to need around 40-60 buy-ins (depending on the quality of opponets and the number of time you chop it up when HU).

[betgo]

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I believe quite often that a number of people here have posted that folding a hand as a 55% favorite is a huge error. Unless I'm mistaken, even Greg Raymer has even stated this (or was it 60/40?). But if stacks are deep (like 80+): Why would you take a 55/45 edge if the table you're at is a weak table where you play better than 7 of the people at the table?

Basically, let's say a weak tight player opens in MP2 for 3xbb (stacks 80bb) and you reraise to 10BB(you cover but barely) with JJ. MP2 pushes and says he has AKs. Let's say he never lies. So 100% of the time he has AKs. You're only a 55/45 favorite.

I know you're getting 1.33 to 1 here and you're a favorite. However, getting "unlucky" here will basically ship you out of the tournament. Also realize you're up against 7 weak players, so do you want to "risk" your tournament on an eventual flip when there are other people you can take advantage of and build your stack up easier with less of a risk (by playing small pot poker).


Thoughts??


Please do not say, for the amount of times he has TT/99 here. I realize this could happen, I'm just saying you knew for sure that you're opponet has AKs here.

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First of all, in your example, you are getting 1.33-1 pot odds. So a 55-45 favorite with those pot odds is equivalent to being a 64-36 favorite without pot odds. This illustrates one reason for taking "coin flips" for all your chips.

[Clayton]

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But he has had strong results in the past and present and IMO, one of the top tournament players in NLHE.

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oh man

[Sykes]

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I believe quite often that a number of people here have posted that folding a hand as a 55% favorite is a huge error. Unless I'm mistaken, even Greg Raymer has even stated this (or was it 60/40?). But if stacks are deep (like 80+): Why would you take a 55/45 edge if the table you're at is a weak table where you play better than 7 of the people at the table?

Basically, let's say a weak tight player opens in MP2 for 3xbb (stacks 80bb) and you reraise to 10BB(you cover but barely) with JJ. MP2 pushes and says he has AKs. Let's say he never lies. So 100% of the time he has AKs. You're only a 55/45 favorite.

I know you're getting 1.33 to 1 here and you're a favorite. However, getting "unlucky" here will basically ship you out of the tournament. Also realize you're up against 7 weak players, so do you want to "risk" your tournament on an eventual flip when there are other people you can take advantage of and build your stack up easier with less of a risk (by playing small pot poker).


Thoughts??


Please do not say, for the amount of times he has TT/99 here. I realize this could happen, I'm just saying you knew for sure that you're opponet has AKs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, in your example, you are getting 1.33-1 pot odds. So a 55-45 favorite with those pot odds is equivalent to being a 64-36 favorite without pot odds. This illustrates one reason for taking "coin flips" for all your chips.

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Can you explain how 55/45 favorite getting 1.3 to 1 odds equate to 64/36 favorite for the slow people?

BTW, IIRC, you're one of the players on here that advocate folding small edges..

[reecelights]

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both concepts can be done at once [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

you can play small pot poker but at same time take 55/45's when they are useable. hellmuth said he would pass up a 80/20 early i think, but he sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly, isn't it written somewhere that in a big tourney like the WSOP ME you should fold AA if facing an all in since you can make up that edge with your skill later?

Yeah, Matt Matros cock-slapped that little piece of advice in the face didn't he?

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?

If I have AA, my chips are in there no matter what (no matter how many people are going in, no matter what my stack size, no matter how deep I am). Having AA and JJ are 2 WAY different things.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

201,376 games 0.110 secs 1,830,690 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 05.6708 % 05.62% 00.05% { AcAd }
Hand 2: 06.1445 % 06.09% 00.05% { AhKh }
Hand 3: 05.4647 % 05.41% 00.05% { AsQs }
Hand 4: 17.5146 % 17.51% 00.00% { JcJd }
Hand 5: 09.1938 % 09.19% 00.00% { 8h8s }
Hand 6: 10.5078 % 10.51% 00.00% { 7d6d }
Hand 7: 11.1683 % 11.17% 00.00% { KdKs }
Hand 8: 11.2045 % 11.20% 00.00% { 9c9s }
Hand 9: 14.8301 % 14.83% 00.00% { TdTh }
Hand 10: 08.3010 % 08.30% 00.00% { 5h5s }


---

[gumpzilla]

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Can you explain how 55/45 favorite getting 1.3 to 1 odds equate to 64/36 favorite for the slow people?

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Being laid 1.3:1 and winning that bet 55% of the time means you'll win 26.5 cents on the dollar when you bet. If you now look at what odds you'd have to have if you weren't getting laid extra money in the pot for the same profit, you'd find that it's 63-37, by my calculation. Win 63.25 percent of the time, lose 36.75% of the time -> gain 26.5 cents on the dollar.

[NakedNoggin]

I do not play big tournaments very often so I would pick a better spot for all my money. But in the $100 tournament that I play every week...I probably call.

I post on another forum about a hand I was in $100 30 person tournament. Paid the top 4 and there was 5 of us left. I was second in chips and UTG+1 with JJ. Blinds are 500/1000. I have about 20K and BS has 32K. SS has 3K and he and one other player are pretty weak.(the other have 8K).

I make it 4k to go and BS on the button moves all in. Folded around to me and I fold. He showed 7's but I felt I made the right play because my read was AK because I had seem him make the play earlier in the night.

I asked how high of a hand would you fold? Do you fold QQ? KK? or even AA?

QQ...maybe. KK or AA probably not.

My thoughts were that there are still two weak player with SS that are going to be pushing with just about anything and if I am going to race...I would like to be in the money.

My thoughts are that this can be a hole in my game that could be taken advantage of.

Anyway, kinda along the same line.