Why not pass up 55/45 edges?

[Sykes]

I believe quite often that a number of people here have posted that folding a hand as a 55% favorite is a huge error. Unless I'm mistaken, even Greg Raymer has even stated this (or was it 60/40?). But if stacks are deep (like 80+): Why would you take a 55/45 edge if the table you're at is a weak table where you play better than 7 of the people at the table?

Basically, let's say a weak tight player opens in MP2 for 3xbb (stacks 80bb) and you reraise to 10BB(you cover but barely) with JJ. MP2 pushes and says he has AKs. Let's say he never lies. So 100% of the time he has AKs. You're only a 55/45 favorite.

I know you're getting 1.33 to 1 here and you're a favorite. However, getting "unlucky" here will basically ship you out of the tournament. Also realize you're up against 7 weak players, so do you want to "risk" your tournament on an eventual flip when there are other people you can take advantage of and build your stack up easier with less of a risk (by playing small pot poker).


Thoughts??


Please do not say, for the amount of times he has TT/99 here. I realize this could happen, I'm just saying you knew for sure that you're opponet has AKs here.

[Clayton]

Hey Sykes,

Your advantage in big field MTTs is taking the 55/45.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Sykes,

Your advantage in big field MTTs is taking the 55/45.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? When I can just chop down on opponet stacks at basically less risk?

Please explain how. This seriously has me stumped.

Also, if you believe 80BB is not deep enough, how deep would you need to be to pass this edge?

Also, side question, in a cash game, you put 90% of your roll in a juicy game, and same situation arises. Do you take it?

[tubasteve]

I don't really think a 55/45 edge is as small as you think. Also, if you pass up this edge you are still going to need luck on your side to win the tournament, either through strong hole cards or seeing cheap favorable flops.

The problem seems that it is impossible to quantify one's skill advantage with a number that allows us to compare the EV of folding and waiting for a better spot vs. calling to try and win the "flip".

If you are properly bankrolled I think it would always be incorrect to pass up coinflips (even on the bad side) early in a tournament, especially online where you can just fire up another if you bust. Besides, 80+ big blinds isn't very deep by anyone's standards other than online tournament players. It's still not much room to work with; very often stacks will be getting in preflop or on the flop when in deeper games (i.e. live tourneys/cash games) there is enough behind for significant turn and river play, even in reraised preflop pots. Since cEV = $EV early, there isn't any reason to play these hands differently than you would in a cash game; if you were getting any kind of overlay with a coinflip, you would HAVE to call or make a FTOP mistake.

In reference to your example at the end of your post, this is irrelevant because you are either a slight dog or slighter favorite against a range that could plausibly include 99 anyway. As an aside, I disapprove of using examples that contain absolutes (i.e. "knowing" he has AKs and that we are in a 55/45) because in what reasonable scenario are you ever going to TRULY know with 100% certainty what anyone has? The example is worthless (just my opinion) when it could never occur in a real situation. FWIW, I don't like when Sklansky does it either so this isn't a flame at you or anything.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

482,869,728 games 0.625 secs 772,591,564 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.8718 % 50.65% 01.22% { 99+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 48.1282 % 46.90% 01.22% { JJ }


---Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

647,250,912 games 0.844 secs 766,884,966 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.8164 % 48.85% 00.96% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 50.1836 % 49.22% 00.96% { JJ }


---

PS-FWIW I think the Raymer post said to never pass up 60/40's but I may be wrong--isn't there a link in the anthology? (too tired to search now)

[A_PLUS]

Why?
B/c I heard he went to Yale, he must be smart Matt Matros article

[tubasteve]

[ QUOTE ]
Why?
B/c I heard he went to Yale, he must be smart Matt Matros article

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a great article; he articulated what I was trying to express with real numbers. Impressive.

And I guess he did come up with a scenario (which I somehow overlooked) that lets us know our opponents hand with 100% certainty, but I still dislike the example since that A) could never happen online where we all play the majority of our tourneys and B) would probably cause the dealer/floor to declare the guy's hand dead anyway, since I believe that is the rule. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Clayton]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem seems that it is impossible to quantify one's skill advantage with a number that allows us to compare the EV of folding and waiting for a better spot vs. calling to try and win the "flip".

[/ QUOTE ]

Beward of statements like this Steve, especially with Matros' article in A_PLUS's post. This is what I was vaguely referring to. Not to be mean, just say "I think" next time.

Taking the 55/45's is what allows good players to get the big stacks and do more with them. Passing up an opportunity means you would require a skill advantage over the field that is literally impossible to achieve, or so says Matros. Therein lies the defining point, which is what OP was saying. The same is true even if your table is full of bad players.

[registrar]

On one hand, in isolation, I can fold here. I've laid down pocket pairs with similar action, putting villain on AK, before in the bubble when deep and comfortable in a big buy-in and, whatever the prevailing 2+2 view, I'm happy with that. The key is how comfortable you are at the table, how easily you are accumulating, the dyanmic you have with other big stacks etc. I'm with you that, IMHO, there are often better spots to call off your whole stack, even as a favourite.

On the other hand, I also called an all in from a slightly bigger stack UTG in the BB with A10o to bust in 12th in what was my biggest ever pay out ($15k). It was six-handed and there was flat structure on the penultimate table. I had no idea whether I was ahead, flipping or dominated but (he had KQ as it happens and caught both) but, in retrospect and at the time, I was happy with the play because I felt it was only way, agaisnt a very strong field, that I could negotiate my way to the final table.

However, as Clayton says, in general in MTTs, you can't be making a habit of folding edges. Apart from anything else, you're going to inviting more pushes from people like me who watch for better players who can fold to reraise pushes.

[Clayton]

[ QUOTE ]


Really? When I can just chop down on opponet stacks at basically less risk?

Please explain how. This seriously has me stumped.

[/ QUOTE ]

See Matros article

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you believe 80BB is not deep enough, how deep would you need to be to pass this edge?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dont quote me on this, but I dont think any is 'too deep'

[ QUOTE ]
Also, side question, in a cash game, you put 90% of your roll in a juicy game, and same situation arises. Do you take it?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is obv dependant upon what you define as roll, how relaceable it is, how much of savings, etc. In a vacuum its an obvious call, but the 90% of roll thing complicates things. A better answer is "Dont sit in a game with a that much of your roll on the table". But then again that statement can be contradicted with logic as well given certain circumstances.

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really think a 55/45 edge is as small as you think. Also, if you pass up this edge you are still going to need luck on your side to win the tournament, either through strong hole cards or seeing cheap favorable flops.

The problem seems that it is impossible to quantify one's skill advantage with a number that allows us to compare the EV of folding and waiting for a better spot vs. calling to try and win the "flip".

If you are properly bankrolled I think it would always be incorrect to pass up coinflips (even on the bad side) early in a tournament, especially online where you can just fire up another if you bust. Besides, 80+ big blinds isn't very deep by anyone's standards other than online tournament players. It's still not much room to work with; very often stacks will be getting in preflop or on the flop when in deeper games (i.e. live tourneys/cash games) there is enough behind for significant turn and river play, even in reraised preflop pots. Since cEV = $EV early, there isn't any reason to play these hands differently than you would in a cash game; if you were getting any kind of overlay with a coinflip, you would HAVE to call or make a FTOP mistake.

In reference to your example at the end of your post, this is irrelevant because you are either a slight dog or slighter favorite against a range that could plausibly include 99 anyway. As an aside, I disapprove of using examples that contain absolutes (i.e. "knowing" he has AKs and that we are in a 55/45) because in what reasonable scenario are you ever going to TRULY know with 100% certainty what anyone has? The example is worthless (just my opinion) when it could never occur in a real situation. FWIW, I don't like when Sklansky does it either so this isn't a flame at you or anything.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

482,869,728 games 0.625 secs 772,591,564 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.8718 % 50.65% 01.22% { 99+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 48.1282 % 46.90% 01.22% { JJ }


---Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

647,250,912 games 0.844 secs 766,884,966 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.8164 % 48.85% 00.96% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 50.1836 % 49.22% 00.96% { JJ }


---

PS-FWIW I think the Raymer post said to never pass up 60/40's but I may be wrong--isn't there a link in the anthology? (too tired to search now)

[/ QUOTE ]


Great post steve. Obviously as most players are today, online players, 80BB is pretty deep since in lowstakes cash games when players push preflop with 80BB they usually have 1 of 4 hands (QQ+/AK+). I know it's really bad to use absolute, since you could always be wrong, but I'm just using this for this argument. In no way, is it saying it's the end-all be-all of the discussion. Remember when Annie Duke folded TT to Raymer's KK getting 3 to 1? That was an insane fold but she went on with her "read" and folded, and went on to win the tournament. Obviously, you can say I'm being results orientated here, and you could rightly say that this was a terrible fold (because Raymer "could" have AK here).

Here's a better scenario:

You're in the WSOP ME, 1st time, you have above average skills and have gone deep in big $215 MTT tournaments (let's say you final tabled a couple), so you know what it takes to go deep. Blinds are 50/100, you're at a table filled with internet donks, you have 11k in CO w/JJ and MP2 (with 10.5K) raises to 300, you reraise to 1k. MP2 now pushes and flips up AKs. Still willing to call?

Also, isn't this basically putting up 95% of your bankroll on a 55/45 shot in a cash game?