$11 Fold JJ L1 preflop?

[tewall]

I think you have a good argument here, except that you won't lose a race a small % of the time. It will be a sizeable % of the time. The question is if the gain of the not small % of the time you but out is worth the reward. I think it probably is, but I don't think it's a no-brainer.

[derdo]

there is little probability that JJ is better than a coinfllp here so you fold.

[anacrime]

This is an instafold.

You do not need to gamble with these guys this early in the tournament. They WILL give you many more oppurtunities to get their chips later in the tournament.

[Scruff]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an instafold.

You do not need to gamble with these guys this early in the tournament. They WILL give you many more oppurtunities to get their chips later in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't buy it. Get your money in with small edges, in the long-run you come out ahead. If you get a bigger edge later, all the better, and you'll have more chips when you push that one. But don't pass one up early in a tournament. If you wait until later, when you have less chips after making weak-tight folds with big hands the reward isn't as great.

I think this article is very relevant here:

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...amp;m_id=65576

[caretaker1]

EZ fold.

[Scruff]

Looking at ICM - if you fold along with everyone else, you are still at .1000.
If you fold and CO+1 takes out UTG+1, your $EV is .1008.
If you fold and UTG+1 takes out CO+1, your $EV is .1009.

Now, if you push . . .

If you get heads up with CO+1 and take him out, your $EV is .1919.
If you take them both out, your $EV is .2544.
If UTG+1 calls, and CO+1 folds, and you win, your $EV is .1974
If you fold them both your $EV is .125

Of course, of you get called and lose, you are out, since both have you covered, because they both have you covered.

Assigning probabilities . . .

I'm assuming UTG+1 folds 85% of the time, and CO+1 folds 70% if UTG+1 folds, 85% if UTG+1 calls. I'll also assume that if UTG+1 calls, you are 35/65 (he's probably got QQ-AA or AK if he calls), and if CO+1 calls also, you are 20/80 to take them both out. If UTG+1 folds and then CO+1 calls, I'd say you are 50/50 against him.

12.5%, Take out CO+1 $EV = .1919
1%, Take both out .2544 (didn't realize it was this low in my initial post)
4.5%, Take out UTG+1 .1974
59.5%, Both Fold .125
22.5%, Push and lose

.125 * .1919 = .0239875
.01 * .2544 = .002544
.045 * .1974 = .0008883
.595 * .125 = .074375

Total = .1017948 - which is better than folding.

It's a pretty marginal push/fold, I don't really see a compelling case for either. If you think any of my assumptions are off, it would certainly alter the results.

[Scruff]

Also FWIW, if you like to see flops, and call but then have to fold to overcards on the flop you are .833. If you call, along with UTG+1 (who would be very likely to call if you do) and then win on the flop uncalled, when everything comes T or lower, you'll be at .132.

[Nick M]

I have yet to see you buy any answer we give you so far on this forum. And for your information they're talking about MTTs not STTs in that article. You could take the flip because you'll now have a monster stack to push the table around if you win. You don't need a monster stack to make it to the money in a SNG. What do you think, you need to double up in the first 2 levels of an SNG to make it to the money???

Dude listen to me. Less posting, more reading, when you're new. This will really help a lot.

[tigerite]

UTG+1 folding 85% of the time? CO 70% of the time? What an absolute load of tripe.

The only reason a push might not be too bad here is because it's an $11 and they're mostly donks, but I'd probably still fold anyway. You can't tag someone as a 'LAG' from the 2nd hand just because he stole the blinds the first hand. People do get a hand two in a row you know.. it's beautiful when you do too, because nobody ever gives you credit for it the second time!

[Nybster]

The way I see this is u have 2 outs if you push..

Either bust out, or suck out!

seriously, u have to give a little credit to the reraiser.

I would most likely fold this 2nd hand of the tourny.