bottom set OOP on monotone board

[thedustbustr]

A made flush isn't pushing, a made flush from your typical player is either going to slowplay or value bet, more emphasis on sloyplay. Top two will push. Call, instantly.

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]
Check the Flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously? then what? fold to any bet? seems realy really weak. checkraise?

[Johan L]

Baby flush could push.
Twopair would push
Ah x (maybe paired x) might push.

Call

[ChipStorm]

What Button DOESN'T have:

* I can't imagine in my wildest dreams that top two pushes here, after a pot lead and a call. Either of the two players already in could have top two crushed. Pushing with top two would be absolute suicide; you're laying 6:1 to pick up a measly pot and you'd only get called by hands that beat you.

* Monster draws often push, but there really is no monster draw here, not with three [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s already out.

What Button DOES have. Either:

* A higher set, which would push to price out single high [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s from drawing, and fold baby flushes (less likely), and have redraws to the boat if behind. If a set has pushed, you're dead.

* A made baby flush, which would push to price out a lone high [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and (less likely) a set from drawing a boat. If a baby flush has pushed, you're a big dog.


You have to fold this.

P.S. Good flop bet. Checking would be tragic, you'd let a lone high [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw for free.

[Iconoclastic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the Flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously? then what? fold to any bet? seems realy really weak. checkraise?

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason behind it is to minimize the pot when you're not sure if you're ahead. A misplayed flush will let you draw out for cheap. If the bettor is Aggressive you may call him down. If the bettor is a Rock you can fold. I would rather not check-raise out of position with a hand that I don't know is good cuz if he calls and you don't fill up you're screwed. The play after the Check will be read-dependent. It's better than leading because it sucks to get reraised.

By checking first and not betting you lose the least when you're behind and disguise your hand well. A lot of players will slow down on the Turn if someone check-calls a board like this fearing the high flush and a blocking bet on the River would be fine.

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check the Flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

seriously? then what? fold to any bet? seems realy really weak. checkraise?

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason behind it is to minimize the pot when you're not sure if you're ahead. A misplayed flush will let you draw out for cheap. If the bettor is Aggressive you may call him down. If the bettor is a Rock you can fold. I would rather not check-raise out of position with a hand that I don't know is good cuz if he calls and you don't fill up you're screwed. The play after the Check will be read-dependent. It's better than leading because it sucks to get reraised.

By checking first and not betting you lose the least when you're behind and disguise your hand well. A lot of players will slow down on the Turn if someone check-calls a board like this fearing the high flush and a blocking bet on the River would be fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

still not convinced checking is any good, althoguh check/call/lead turn might not be horrible. i wouldnt ever check raise here either, and not to nitpick, but you can ONLY ch/r out of position. how else can it be done?

[chadplusplus]

Yuck, I see this as the "Danneman" rule. "Its only a small mistake to fold to a big bet with a small pot" or something like that. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Seriously though, you're essentially risking $50 to win $50.

Is it worth the risk? and didn't Doyle say something about never losing your stack in an unraised pot? I don't like calling these kinds of bets but that's probably because I don't like wild variance either. I think this is a situation where, minus reads, you can fold while thinking, "Well, if he did have the flush, he's retarded, and if that was just a (semi)bluff, he's retarded because if he keeps doing that, I'm going to smash him when the times right." Of course, if he's done this 3 times in the last orbit, its an autocall.

I actually know a guy who plays this way. The ol' open-push. Its pretty funny. But he'll push with the current or relative nuts because "I don't want to get drawn out on."


Numbers please:
If you're right, and he's just on a draw, he's still going to win 29.1%.

Top two pair, he will win 20%.

If he's already hit the flush, you will still win 34.2%.

Overset, you can still suck out a measly 6%. (Thanks to PokerStove)

So... I ran poker stove with all of our suggested hand ranges (aleady has the flush, higher sets, higher pocket pairs with the flush draw, Ace of hearts, etc...). Of course, this isn't 100% accurate because I don't know how to assign each hand group a percentage, i.e. "20% chance he already has the flush".

Anyway, here's the results:
Board: 4h 8h 9h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.4340 % 60.67% 00.77% { 44 }
Hand 2: 38.5660 % 37.80% 00.77% { AcAh, AdAh, AhAs, KcKh, KdKh, KhKs, QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, TcTh, TdTh, ThTs, 99-88, 33-22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh4h, Kh3h, Kh2h, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Qh7h, Qh6h, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh3h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, Jh7h, Jh6h, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh3h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th7h, Th6h, Th5h, Th4h, Th3h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h7h, 9h6h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h3h, 9h2h, 87s, 8h6h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h3h, 8h2h, 76s, 7h5h, 7h4h, 7h3h, 7h2h, 65s, 6h4h, 6h3h, 6h2h, 54s, 5h3h, 5h2h, 43s, 4h2h, 3h2h, AKo, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah7c, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah6c, Ah6d, Ah6s, Ah5c, Ah5d, Ah5s, Ah4c, Ah4d, Ah4s, Ah3c, Ah3d, Ah3s, Ah2c, Ah2d, Ah2s, 98o, 32o }

Eh, numbers be damned, I still don't like calling this.\

Edit: ... but I'm working on convincing myself otherwise.