Will Bush Drop into the 30s? - Page 5

MtSmalls · #41 08-22-2005, 05:49 PM

So what is it exactly that 'intelligent' people like you LIKE about the current economy??

Stagnant wages? Lowest labor participation in 15 years? rising interest rates?

QuadsOverQuads · #42 08-22-2005, 08:37 PM

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How many Broken Glass and Jaxmike's are out there?

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That all depends on what the right-wing's propaganda budget happens to be at the current moment.

q/q

vulturesrow · #43 08-22-2005, 09:43 PM

First off, I never claimed superior intelligence, merely that most people are ignorant about the economy (and I will also claim, ignorant about economics in general). I never made a claim to superior intelligence, nor should you take my use of the word ignorant to be synonymous with stupid. In other words, quit trying so hard to be a jerk and make some substantive points instead of trying to put words in my mouth.

Things I like about the economy right now:
<ul type="square">[*]5% unemployment[*]total US employment at an all time high[*]interest rates and core inflation at 40 year lows[*]worker compensation up 4% (since the Bush economic stimulus package came into effect)[/list]
Those are some to get you started.

LomU · #44 08-22-2005, 10:19 PM

well, according to the ARG, he's in the 30's now, despite confidence in the stronger economy.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

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August 22, 2005
George W. Bush's Job Approval Ratings Drop

George W. Bush's overall job approval ratings have dropped from a month ago even as Americans who approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president are turning more optimistic about their personal financial situations according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. Among all Americans, 36% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 58% disapprove. When it comes to Bush's handling of the economy, 33% approve and 62% disapprove.

Among Americans registered to vote, 38% approve of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 56% disapprove, and 36% approve of the way Bush is handling the economy and 60% disapprove.

This is the second month in a row when improving economic ratings have not been matched by higher job approval ratings for Bush. A total of 24% of Americans now say their personal financial situations are getting better, up from 17% in July, and 27% say they believe that their personal financial situations will be better off a year from now, which is up from 21% in July.

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ptmusic · #45 08-23-2005, 02:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First off, I never claimed superior intelligence, merely that most people are ignorant about the economy (and I will also claim, ignorant about economics in general). I never made a claim to superior intelligence, nor should you take my use of the word ignorant to be synonymous with stupid. In other words, quit trying so hard to be a jerk and make some substantive points instead of trying to put words in my mouth.

Things I like about the economy right now:
<ul type="square">[*]5% unemployment[*]total US employment at an all time high[*]interest rates and core inflation at 40 year lows[*]worker compensation up 4% (since the Bush economic stimulus package came into effect)[/list]
Those are some to get you started.

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How can interest rates be at a 40 year low if Greenspan has been gradually hiking them?

-ptmusic

natedogg · #46 08-23-2005, 02:57 AM

Who cares? He could drop to 1%. He's a lame duck. It doesn't matter.

natedogg

Grey · #47 08-23-2005, 06:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Who cares? He could drop to 1%. He's a lame duck. It doesn't matter.

natedogg

[/ QUOTE ]You could not be more wrong. It affects the '06 and '08 elections a great deal, and elections beyond that to a lesser degree. To pretend it doesn't is a rejection of proven political reality.

He has a 21% approval rating from independents- that's just scary.

Considering how much voting for a particular party is affected by habit (maybe moreso than ideology), hopefully you can see that this is a very serious problem for Republicans with long-term implications. Unless someone like McCain takes over and reshapes the party, and considering the coming demographic changes in America, I think this is the beginning of a long-lasting and steep decline for the Republican Party. I'm not trying to gloat, and I'm trying to be objective- this is a big deal.

Wes Mantooth · #48 08-23-2005, 12:31 PM

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I think this is the beginning of a long-lasting and steep decline for the Republican Party.

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after reading a POLL I thought this too. This POLL also made me think that the Dem party will rise again lead by Hilary Clinton and the United States will be saved and everything will be like butter.

MtSmalls · #49 08-23-2005, 01:15 PM

After posting the results from the ARG poll that only 33% of Americans approved of the Bush's handling of the economy, your one line retort was: "That just shows how ignorant the average American is".

I asked what you liked about the economy, since you thought the "average American" was clearly wrong/misguided/misinformed.

True, the BLS measure of Unemployment is currently 5%. However, embedded in that statistic (as I pointed out in the substantive portion of my reply) is that labor participation in the U.S. is lower today than it was 5 years ago. That is when Clinton left office, according to the BLS ( BLS Link labor force participation peaked at just over 67%. Today it stands at 66%. So, if you were to include that portion of the population that are of working age and eligible to work, but are no longer seeking a job, unemployment would be over 6%. When Clinton left office, with a MILLION more participants in the labor pool, unemployment was 4%.

Total US Employment may be higher than five years ago, but not as a percentage of the US population. That is natural growth in the working age population may have increased the total number of job holders, but Total US Population/Job holders is 2% less now than five years ago.

BLS Link 2%* roughly 300 million is SIX Million less...

Interest rates and core inflation are both higher now than last year, let alone 40 year lows. The last CPI number, end of July 2005, showed a year over year rate of 3.2%. In 1997 and 1998 year over year CPI changes were 1.7 and 1.6 percent, or HALF of last year's.

Annual Average Wage Growth from 2001 to 2004:
3.3%, 3.1%, 1.7%, 2.6%.
CPI Change from 2001 to 2004
1.5%, 2.4%, 1.9%, 3.4%
REAL Wage Growth:
1.8%, 0.7%, -0.2%, -0.8%.

I don't know about you, but I LOVE negative wage growth, coupled with rising interest rates and rising unemployment.
(Is that substantive enough???)

AvivaSimplex · #50 08-23-2005, 05:39 PM

The 36% result is clearly an outlier. Check out this chart. I'm not saying it's looking good for him, but polls in the next month or so will probably show him in the low 40s.

Incidentally, Nixon only dropped to the low 30s before he resigned. There's definitely a hard core on both sides that will find a way to love or hate the president regardless of what evidence you show them.