To gamble or not to gamble late: That is my question

[AceKQJT]

Well, I think it looks like the kind of bone-headed call I am apt to make from time to time [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Actually, I don't like the call ON the bubble, unless the PFR has been using his big stack to just repeatedly steal. With an average stack, I'd rather just steal 1 or 2 times a round on the bubble.

I just think this is pretty read-dependant (ie...if the guy is average, his range is tighter on the bubble than it normally would be) I would have put him on , perhaps, TT+, AQ+.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

89,039,808 games 0.340 secs 261,881,788 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.6313 % 31.23% 00.40% { QsJs }
Hand 2: 68.3687 % 67.97% 00.40% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

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Fwiw, the call turned out to be a profitable one, and if that was the only time during the tourney you got in with the worst of it, you are a fine player, indeed.

Good job on the win!!!
Ace

[PokerLearner]

We were at one of those tables where a lot of players were limping, and were going unpunished. The player in question was a chronic limper. So I raised him with my Qjs, being pretty certain that he didn't have AA or KK or anything (why would he limp with those hands on a table that had many limpers and he wasn't likely to get raised with them?). He then pushed over the top and this is the call I had to make. My read on him was one of those players who wants to see a flop before committing his chips (i.e. willing to go bust with 99 if an overpair, but would lay it down if two overs or an ace on board). Also, only other time I saw him with KK, he raised with it beforehand. So I didn't think it likely he had AA or KK, and QQ I thought pretty unlikely.
At any rate, I was comfortable with my read, but you could see with my range, I was almost a 2:1 dog and getting 2:1 pot odds. That to me means it is almost a pure gamble, and so I can't decide still if I made the right call or I should have laid this down.

[J.A.K.]

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Geez, how could I forget the implied pot odds of dinner, LOL. In that case, good call.

However, despite his tempting odds, I'd still wait to use the 'impied pott odds of dinner' until I had atleast won my buy in back by making the money.

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Passing up +EV calls because you want one buyin back is a great way to make sure you don't win anything more than one buyin.

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Beautiful! Just learning this....very PITHY Foucault!

[mornelth]

Well - this is one of those situations I construct for myself sometimes where my actions CREATE a situation for the pot-odds-based call with a hand that's behind.

Example - I'm in CO with slightly below average stack of 7200, blinds are 300-600, button has around 3.5K and is TIGHT, blinds are around average stacks and are TIGHT. It's folded to me and despite having 83o I decide to steal and raise to 1800. To my dismay Button pushes his 3.5K. So the pot is 6300 and it's 1700 to me which is GREAT pot odds... but I have 83o... For the record, I called and cracked Button's Aces with 2-pair, but the point here is - I CREATED a situation that demanded a call with a rather weak hand. Something I now try to think about BEFORE getting involved.

[THAY3R]

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Well first of all, I don't really see how calling off his stack when he is not a favorite to be +EV.

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Do you know what EV is?

[PokerLearner]

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Well - this is one of those situations I construct for myself sometimes where my actions CREATE a situation for the pot-odds-based call with a hand that's behind.

Example - I'm in CO with slightly below average stack of 7200, blinds are 300-600, button has around 3.5K and is TIGHT, blinds are around average stacks and are TIGHT. It's folded to me and despite having 83o I decide to steal and raise to 1800. To my dismay Button pushes his 3.5K. So the pot is 6300 and it's 1700 to me which is GREAT pot odds... but I have 83o... For the record, I called and cracked Button's Aces with 2-pair, but the point here is - I CREATED a situation that demanded a call with a rather weak hand. Something I now try to think about BEFORE getting involved.

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I understand the case where you try to steal and now have overwhelming pot odds and gotta call. In this case, I initially thought he had a mid-pair and would fold to a raise. I did not expect him to push, but when he did I was very unsure what I should do. Imagine if instead of having 83o, you have 87s and are caught trying to steal by a pretty big stack. In fact it puts you all in, but you have 2.2:1 odds (or something between 2 and 3:1). 87s is pretty, and it plays okay against villain's likely re-raise range. Would you risk your tourney life on this? I think if the villain was short-stacked, it is easier to call as if you don't suck out, you are still alive. But it is risking your tourney life that makes me wonder if this was a terrible call or not.

[0evg0]

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Well - this is one of those situations I construct for myself sometimes where my actions CREATE a situation for the pot-odds-based call with a hand that's behind.

Example - I'm in CO with slightly below average stack of 7200, blinds are 300-600, button has around 3.5K and is TIGHT, blinds are around average stacks and are TIGHT. It's folded to me and despite having 83o I decide to steal and raise to 1800. To my dismay Button pushes his 3.5K. So the pot is 6300 and it's 1700 to me which is GREAT pot odds... but I have 83o... For the record, I called and cracked Button's Aces with 2-pair, but the point here is - I CREATED a situation that demanded a call with a rather weak hand. Something I now try to think about BEFORE getting involved.

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I do this all the time. Usually subconsciously on purpose. With 76d or T8h.

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[nath]

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Well - this is one of those situations I construct for myself sometimes where my actions CREATE a situation for the pot-odds-based call with a hand that's behind.

Example - I'm in CO with slightly below average stack of 7200, blinds are 300-600, button has around 3.5K and is TIGHT, blinds are around average stacks and are TIGHT. It's folded to me and despite having 83o I decide to steal and raise to 1800. To my dismay Button pushes his 3.5K. So the pot is 6300 and it's 1700 to me which is GREAT pot odds... but I have 83o... For the record, I called and cracked Button's Aces with 2-pair, but the point here is - I CREATED a situation that demanded a call with a rather weak hand. Something I now try to think about BEFORE getting involved.

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I do this all the time. Usually subconsciously on purpose. With 76d or T8h.

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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I do it a lot too. Not so much anymore but staying aggressive and then calling with pot odds, and getting lucky, actually works in tournaments.